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Analysis of the Hanwoo Rasing Cycle Using Sine Function  

Jeon, Sang-Gon (Dept. of Agricultural Econ., Gyeongsang National Univ. (Insti. of Agric. & Life Sci.))
Publication Information
Journal of agriculture & life science / v.46, no.6, 2012 , pp. 197-205 More about this Journal
Abstract
This paper analyzes the beef cycle and forecasts the number of Hanwoo. This study uses Sine function for this purpose. Data shows that beef cycle varies from five to twelve years and the cycle becomes longer as time passes. The adjusted $R^2$ of the estimated model is 0.95. The forecasted value based on this model for the number of Hanwoo is 1.6-1.8 million heads in lower bound and 3.2-3.7 million heads in upper bound, where the peak points are slightly different according to cycles. These predicted values imply the instability of number of Hanwoo and corresponding farm income, so we have to prepare adequate policies to cope with it.
Keywords
Hanwoo; Beef cycle; Sine function; Forecasting;
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