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Cost Prediction Models in the Early Stage of the Roadway Planning and Designbased on Limited Available Information  

Kwak, Soo-Nam (롯데건설)
Kim, Du-Yon (연세대학교 토목환경공학과)
Kim, Byoung-Il (연세대학교 토목환경공학과)
Choi, Seok-Jin (연세대학교 대학원 토목환경공학과)
Han, Seung-Heon (연세대학교 토목환경공학과)
Publication Information
Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management / v.10, no.4, 2009 , pp. 87-100 More about this Journal
Abstract
The quality of early cost estimates is critical to the feasibility analysis and budget allocation decisions for public capital projects. Various researches have been attempted to develop cost prediction models in the early stage of a construction project. However, existing studies are limited on its applicability to actual projects because they focus primarily on a specific phase as well as utilize restricted information while the amount of information collectable differs from one another along with the project stages. This research aims to develop two-staged cost estimation model for the schematic planning and preliminary design process of a construction projects, considering the available information of each phase. In the schematic planning stage where outlined information of a project is only available, the Case-Based Reasoning model is used for easy and rapid elicitation of a project cost based on the extensive database of more than 90 actual highway construction projects. Then, the representing quantity-based model is proposed for the preliminary design stage where more information on the quantities and unit costs are collectable based on the alternative routes and cross-sections of a highway project. Real case studies are used to demonstrate and validate the benefits of the proposed approach. Through the two-stage cost estimation system, users are able to hold a timely prospect to presume the final cost within the budge such that feasibility study as well as budget allocation decisions are made on effectively and competitively.
Keywords
Road Construction; Project Cost; Forecasting; Case-Based Reasoning; Multi-Regression Analysis;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 4  (Citation Analysis)
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