Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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Evaluation of estuary reservoir management based on robust decision making considering water use-flood control-water quality under Climate Change

이수-치수-수질을 고려한 기후변화 대응 로버스트 기반 담수호 관리 평가

  • Kim, Seokhyeon (Department of Rural System Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Hwang, Soonho (Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign) ;
  • Kim, Sinae (Department of Rural System Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Lee, Hyunji (Department of Rural System Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Kwak, Jihye (Department of Rural System Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Kim, Jihye (Department of Rural System Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Kang, Moonseong (Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Research Seoul National University)
  • 김석현 (서울대학교 생태조경지역시스템공학부 지역시스템공학전공) ;
  • 황순호 (일리노이대학교 농업생명공학과) ;
  • 김시내 (서울대학교 생태조경지역시스템공학부 지역시스템공학전공) ;
  • 이현지 (서울대학교 생태조경지역시스템공학부 지역시스템공학전공) ;
  • 곽지혜 (서울대학교 생태조경지역시스템공학부 지역시스템공학전공) ;
  • 김지혜 (서울대학교 생태조경지역시스템공학부 지역시스템공학전공) ;
  • 강문성 (서울대학교 조경지역시스템공학부 지역시스템공학전공)
  • Received : 2023.04.07
  • Accepted : 2023.06.19
  • Published : 2023.06.30
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Abstract

The objective of this study was to determine the management water level of an estuary reservoir considering three aspects: the water use, flood control and water quality, and to use a robust decision-making to consider uncertainty due to climate change. The watershed-reservoir linkage model was used to simulate changes in inflow due to climate change, and changes in reservoir water level and water quality. Five management level alternatives ranging from -1.7 El.m to 0.2 El.m were evaluated under the SSP1, 2, 3, and 5 scenariosof the ACCESS-CM2 Global Climate Model. Performance indicators based on period-reliability were calculated for robust decision-making considering the three aspects, and regret was used as a decision indicator to identify the alternatives with the minimum maximum regret. Flood control failure increased as the management level increased, while the probability of water use failure increased as the management level decreased. The highest number of failures occurred under the SSP5 scenario. In the water quality sector, the change in water quality was relatively small with an increase in the management level due to the increase in reservoir volume. Conversely, a decrease in the management level resulted in a more significant change in water quality. In the study area, the estuary reservoir was found to be problematic when the change in water quality was small, resulting in more failures.

본 연구의 목적은 미래 기후변화에 따른 담수호의 종합적 수자원 관리를 위하여, 이수-치수-수질을 모두 고려한 평가지표를 설정하고, 로버스트 의사결정 기법을 활용하여 담수호 관리수위 별 변화를 분석하고 평가하는데 있다. 기후변화에 따른 유입량 변화와 이에 따른 호소 수문, 수질 변화를 모의하기 위해 유역-호소 연계모델을 활용하였다. 관리수위는 -1.7 El.m부터 0.3 El.m 까지 5개의 대안을 설정하고 ACCESS-CM2 a Global Climate Model의 SSP1, 2, 3, 5 시나리오에 따른 변화를 평가하였다. 로버스트 의사결정을 위해 기간신뢰도 기반 이수-치수-수질 지표를 성과지표로 산정하고, 후회도를 결정지표로 최소의 최대후회도를 가지는 대안을 산정하고자 하였다. 대안 별 평가 결과 -1.2 El. m가 최적 관리수위로 산정되었다. 관리수위를 높게 설정할수록 치수적 실패에 낮게 설정할수록 이수적 실패에 가까워지는 것으로 나타났으며, SSP5 시나리오에서 가장 많은 실패가 발생하였다. 수질 부문에서는 관리수위를 상승시킬수록 저수지 체적 증가로 수질 변화가 적게 나타났으며, 낮출수록 수질 변화가 크게 나타났다. 하지만 현재 담수호의 수질 상태가 좋지 않아 관리수위를 상승시켜 수질 변화가 적었을 때 실패가 더 자주 발생하였다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

이 논문은 정부(과학기술정보통신부)의 재원으로 한국연구재단의 지원을 받아 수행된 연구임(No. 2020R1A2C2003808).

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