Journal of Industrial Convergence (산업융합연구)

DAEHAN Society of Industrial Management (대한산업경영학회)
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Time Series Analysis of the Correlation Between the Number of Drug Crime Arrests and Media Coverage for Enhancing Police Response to Drug Crimes

경찰 대응 능력 강화를 위한 마약 범죄 검거 수와 언론보도량의 시계열 분석

  • Jeong-Woo Lee (Major in Data Science, Korean National Police University) ;
  • Seungkook Roh (Major in Data Science, Korean National Police University)
  • 이정우 (경찰대학교 치안대학원 데이터사이언스 전공) ;
  • 노승국 (경찰대학교 치안대학원 데이터사이언스 전공)
  • Received : 2023.04.27
  • Accepted : 2023.06.20
  • Published : 2023.06.28
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Abstract

The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between the amount of media coverage related to drug crimes and the actual number of drug-related arrests. It aims to determine the implications of this relationship for the formulation of police policies in response to drug crimes. To achieve this, we collected and analyzed 50,355 domestic online media coverage data from 2001 to 2022 and drug crime arrest data compiled by the National Police Agency. The analysis confirmed a significant causal relationship between the amount of online media coverage of drug crimes and the actual number of drug crime arrests. This relationship was found to be influenced by the existence of dominant issues and the relevance of famous incidents. It was determined that media coverage was also influenced by public interest beyond drug crime arrest numbers. Based on these research findings, the police have proposed the need to monitor the amount of crime-related media coverage and enhance security capabilities for crimes that receive public attention in order to gain the trust of the citizens.

본 연구의 목적은 마약 범죄와 관련된 언론보도량과 실제 마약사범 검거 건수 간의 관계를 탐구하고, 이 관계가 경찰이 마약 범죄 대응 정책을 수립하는 데 있어 시사하는 바를 확인하는 것이다. 이를 위해, 2001년부터 2022년까지의 국내 온라인 언론보도 데이터 50,355건과 경찰청이 집계한 마약사범 검거 건수 데이터를 수집하고 분석하였다. 분석결과, 마약 범죄 온라인 언론보도량과 실제 마약사범 검거 건수 간에는 유의미한 인과관계가 있음을 확인할 수 있었다. 이 관계는 지배적 이슈의 존재 및 유명 사건 관련 여부에 영향을 받는데, 언론보도량은 마약 범죄 검거 수 외 대중적 관심에도 영향을 받는 것으로 판단되었다. 이러한 결과를 통해 경찰은 국민의 신뢰를 얻기 위하여 범죄 관련 언론보도량을 모니터링하고, 국민적 관심을 받는 범죄에 대한 치안역량을 강화해야 한다고 제안하였다.

Keywords

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