Journal of the Korea Organic Resources Recycling Association (유기물자원화)

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A Study on Medical Waste Generation Analysis during Outbreak of Massive Infectious Diseases

대규모 감염병 발병에 따른 의료폐기물 발생량 예측에 관한 연구

  • Sang-Min Kim (Department of Environmental and Energy Engineering, Anyang University) ;
  • Jin-Kyu Park (Ecowillplus co., LTD.) ;
  • In-Beom Ko (Environment Management Corporation, Environmental Technology Institute) ;
  • Byung-Sun Lee (Environment Management Corporation, Environmental Technology Institute) ;
  • Sang-Ryong Shin (Environment Management Corporation, Environmental Technology Institute) ;
  • Nam-Hoon Lee (Department of Environmental and Energy Engineering, Anyang University)
  • 김상민 (안양대학교 환경에너지공학과) ;
  • 박진규 ((주)에코윌플러스) ;
  • 고인범 (환경시설관리주식회사 환경기술연구원) ;
  • 이병선 (환경시설관리주식회사 환경기술연구원) ;
  • 신상룡 (환경시설관리주식회사 환경기술연구원) ;
  • 이남훈 (안양대학교 환경에너지공학과)
  • Received : 2023.11.29
  • Accepted : 2023.12.12
  • Published : 2023.12.30
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Abstract

In this study, an analysis of medical waste generation characteristics was conducted, differentiating between ordinary situation and the outbreaks of massive infectious diseases. During ordinary situation, prediction models for medical waste quantities by type, general medical waste(G-MW), hazardous medical waste(H-MW), infectious medical waste(I-MW), were established through regression analysis, with all significance values (p) being <0.0001, indicating statistical significance. The determination coefficient(R2) values for prediction models of each category were analyzed as follows : I-MW(R2=0.9943) > G-MW(R2=0.9817) > H-MW(R2=0.9310). Additionally, factors such as GDP(G-MW), the number of medical institutions (H-MW), and the elderly population ratio(I-MW), utilized as influencing factors and consistent with previous literature, showed high correlations. The total MW generation, evaluated by combining each model, had an MAE of 2,615 and RMSE of 3,353. This indicated accuracy levels similar to the medical waste models of H-MW(2,491, 2,890) and I-MW(2,291, 3,267). Due to limitations in accurately estimating the quantity of medical waste during the rapid and outbreaks of massive infectious diseases, the generation unit of I-MW was derived to analyze its characteristics. During the early unstable stage of infectious disease outbreaks, the generation unit was 8.74 kg/capita·day, 2.69 kg/capita·day during the stable stage, and an average of 0.08 kg/capita·day during the reduction stage. Correlation analysis between generation unit of I-MW and lethality rates showed +0.99 in the unstable stage, +0.52 in the stable stage, and +0.96 in the reduction period, demonstrating a very high positive correlation of +0.95 or higher throughout the entire outbreaks of massive infectious diseases. The results derived from this study are expected to play a useful role in establishing an effective medical waste management system in the field of health care.

본 연구에서는 의료폐기물에 대해 평상시 상황과 대규모 감염병 발병 상황으로 구분하여 발생 특성을 분석하였다. 평상시 상황에서는 회귀분석을 통해 의료폐기물 종류별 발생량 예측 모델을 수립하였으며, 유의값(p)은 모두 < 0.0001로 통계적으로 유의미하였다. 각 분류별 예측 모델식의 결정계수(R2) 값은 I-MW(R2=0.9943) > G-MW(R2=0.9817) > H-MW(R2=0.9310) 순으로 분석되었다. 또한, 기존 문헌과 유사한 결과로 영향인자로 사용된 GDP(G-MW), 의료기관 수(H-MW), 고령 인구비(I-MW)는 모두 높은 상관성을 나타내었다. 각 모델식을 종합한 총 의료폐기물 발생량의 MAE는 2,615, RMSE 3,353로 평가되어 H-MW(2,491, 2,890)와 I-MW(2,291, 3,267) 의료폐기물 모델식과 유사한 수준의 정확도를 나타내는 것이 확인되었다. 단기간 내 대량 발생하는 감염병 사태 시기의 의료폐기물 발생 특성은 정확한 추정이 제한적이므로 격리의료폐기물의 발생원단위를 분석하였다. 감염병 초기인 불안정기 8.74 kg/인·일, 안정기 2.69 kg/인·일, 감소기 시기 평균 0.08 kg/인·일의 발생원단위를 나타내었다. 격리의료폐기물 발생원단위와 치명률 간의 상관분석 결과, 불안정기 +0.99, 안정기 +0.52, 감소기 +0.96으로 나타났으며, 감염병 발병 전체시기에서 +0.95 이상의 매우 높은 양의 상관성을 나타내는 것이 확인되었다. 본 연구에서 도출된 연구결과는 보건 의료상에 적절한 의료폐기물 관리시스템을 구축하는 데 유용한 역할을 수행할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

이 논문은 환경부/한국환경산업기술원 감염우려 의료폐기물 처리개발 사업 중 대규모 감염병 발생 대응 의료폐기물 전용 소각장 운영기술 개발(2021003350013)의 지원을 받아 수행된 연구입니다.

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