Journal of Digital Convergence (디지털융복합연구)

The Society of Digital Policy and Management (한국디지털정책학회)
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The Economic Impact of the Establishment of the China-Japan-South Korea Free Trade Area and Impact on the Communication Industry -Base on GTAP Model Analysis-

한중일 자유무역지대 설립의 경제적 영향과 통신 산업에 대한 영향 -GTAP 모형 분석을 바탕으로-

  • Zang, Zhen (Graduate school of International studies, Dong-A University)
  • 장전 (동아대학교 국제학과)
  • Received : 2022.03.31
  • Accepted : 2022.05.20
  • Published : 2022.05.28
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Abstract

In recent years, the world's free trade system has been severely damaged by a series of protectionist measures in the United States and anti-globalization practices such as Brexit. Against this background, RCEP, the world's largest trade agreement, was officially signed on November 15, 2021. The RCEP provided a good working basis for the establishment of a Korea, China, and Japan free trade zone. First, this paper describes the current status of Korea-China-Japan trade cooperation and the current status of the trilateral telecommunication industry. Second, this paper simulates the changes in the overall economy of China, Japan, and Korea when tariffs are reduced to 0%, 5%, and 10%, respectively, after the establishment of a free trade zone using the 8th edition GTAP database. Then, using the simulated data changes and using the 2019 data as a benchmark, we calculated the changes in the RCA index for the three countries' telecommunications industries for the three tax rates. In the end, it is concluded that the economies of the three countries will grow to different levels in many ways when the Korea, China, and Japan free trade zone is established. Japan's telecommunications industry will not be significantly affected, Korea will grow significantly with higher tax rates and China will grow significantly with lower tax rates.

최근 몇 년간 미국의 일련의 보호무역주의 조치와 브렉시트(Brexit) 등 반세계화 행태로 세계의 자유무역체제가 큰 타격을 받았다. 이러한 배경에서 세계 최대 무역 협정인 RCEP가 2021년 11월 15일에 공식 서명되었다. RCEP는 한중일 자유무역지대 구축을 위한 좋은 작업 기반을 제공했다. 첫째, 본고는 한중일 무역협력 현황과 3국 통신 산업의 현황을 기술한다. 둘째, 본 논문은 제8판 GTAP 데이터베이스를 이용하여 자유무역지역 설정 이후 관세가 각각 0%, 5%, 10%로 인하될 때 중국, 일본, 한국의 경제 전반의 변화를 시뮬레이션하였다. 그런 다음 시뮬레이션된 데이터 변경 사항을 사용하고 2019년 데이터를 벤치마크로 사용하여 3개 세율에 따른 3개국 통신 산업의 RCA 지수의 변경 사항을 계산했다. 결국 한중일 자유무역지대가 수립되면 3국의 경제는 다방면에서 서로 다른 수준으로 성장할 것이라는 결론이 나온다. 일본의 통신 산업은 큰 영향을 받지 않을 것이며 한국은 높은 세율로 크게 성장할 것이고 중국은 낮은 세율로 크게 성장할 것이다.

Keywords

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