Journal of Technology Innovation (기술혁신연구)

Korea Society for Innovation Managemetn & Economics (기술경영경제학회)
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Method to Identify Future Technology Candidates: Biofuel Case

잠재적 후보기술 경로 탐색방법 : 바이오 연료 사례

  • 이용승 (성균관대학교 기술경영학과) ;
  • 신준석 (성균관대학교 시스템경영공학과)
  • Received : 2020.05.14
  • Accepted : 2020.06.06
  • Published : 2020.08.31
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Abstract

Existing main path analysis is useful to clarify the backbone of technology developments over the past, but has difficulty in identifying future technology candidates, and also in anticipating changes in the mainstream technology. Our method develops a growth velocity indicator, and combines it with key-route analysis and traversal counts measure in the main path analysis. It enables us to identify rapidly growing paths of future technology candidates, and further to evaluate the relative growth potential of such paths by which can replace the mainstream technology in the main path. Our method can contribute to identifying future technology candidates in a quantitative way by using patents, and broaden the scope of main path analysis research toward foresight. It can be useful for technology strategy in practice. Biofuel technology is exemplified.

기존 주경로 연구는 과거 핵심기술의 진화를 구조화하는데 적합하나, 패러다임 전환기의 잠재적 후보기술 파악과 주류기술 교체를 예측하기는 어렵다. 본 연구는 링크 중요도, 성장 속도 지표, 핵심 루트 방법을 복합해 특허 인용 네트워크로부터 주경로상의 기술을 대체할 잠재적 후보기술들을 파악하는 방법을 제시한다. 링크 중요도에 기반해 주경로를 도출하고, 성장 속도 지표를 활용해 주경로 대비 고성장하는 잠재적 후보기술 경로들을 도출한다. 성장 속도 지표는 상대적 성장성 평가에 활용되고, 이를 통해 주경로를 교체할 가능성이 높은 잠재적 후보기술을 파악할 수 있다. 차세대 기술 후보들이 다수 등장해 경쟁하고 있는 바이오 연료기술에 적용한 결과 실제 차년도에 주경로상의 기술을 교체하는 후보기술들을 파악할 수 있었다. 기술 패러다임 전환기 후보기술에 대한 정량적 분석을 가능하게 하고, 주경로 기법의 활용범위를 미래기술 예측으로 확대한 측면에서 학문적 의의가 있다. 실무에서는 차세대 후보기술 파악의 정확도 제고에 기여할 수 있다.

Keywords

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