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http://dx.doi.org/10.14386/SIME.2020.28.3.29

Method to Identify Future Technology Candidates: Biofuel Case  

Lee, Yongseung (성균관대학교 기술경영학과)
Shin, Juneseuk (성균관대학교 시스템경영공학과)
Publication Information
Journal of Technology Innovation / v.28, no.3, 2020 , pp. 29-53 More about this Journal
Abstract
Existing main path analysis is useful to clarify the backbone of technology developments over the past, but has difficulty in identifying future technology candidates, and also in anticipating changes in the mainstream technology. Our method develops a growth velocity indicator, and combines it with key-route analysis and traversal counts measure in the main path analysis. It enables us to identify rapidly growing paths of future technology candidates, and further to evaluate the relative growth potential of such paths by which can replace the mainstream technology in the main path. Our method can contribute to identifying future technology candidates in a quantitative way by using patents, and broaden the scope of main path analysis research toward foresight. It can be useful for technology strategy in practice. Biofuel technology is exemplified.
Keywords
Main path; future technology candidate; growth velocity; biofuel;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 3  (Citation Analysis)
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