DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

아파트 프로젝트의 초기 분양률 예측 회귀모델

A Regression Model for Forecasting the Initial Sales Ratio of Apartment Building Projects

  • Son, Seung-Hyun (Department of Architectural Engineering, Kyung Hee University) ;
  • Kim, Do-Yeong (Department of Architectural Engineering, Kyung Hee University) ;
  • Kim, Sun-Kuk (Department of Architectural Engineering, Kyung Hee University)
  • 투고 : 2019.07.08
  • 심사 : 2019.08.27
  • 발행 : 2019.10.20

초록

아파트 프로젝트는 사업성패에 영향을 미치는 요인은 매우 다양하다. 그러나 분양단가가 결정되고, 분양이 시작된 이후에는 사업에 가장 큰 영향을 미치는 요인은 분양 후 1개월간의 초기분양률이다. 일반적으로 사업주체는 경제상황, 주택시장의 동향, 사업지 인근의 주택가격 등 다양한 자료에 의해 초기분양률을 예측한다. 그러나 이러한 요인들을 초기분양률과 연계하여 정량적으로 계산하는 것은 매우 어렵다. 따라서 본 연구는 실제 수행된 아파트 프로젝트의 분양결과 자료를 이용하여 초기분양률 예측 회귀모델을 제안하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 본 연구를 위해 기존 분양실적자료 수집, 영향요인들의 상관관계 분석, 초기분양률 예측 회귀모델 작성을 진행한다. 본 연구의 결과는 아파트 프로젝트의 사업성 분석 시 초기 분양률 예측을 위한 기초자료로 활용되며, 사업 리스크 모델 개발의 핵심 자료로 활용된다.

There are various factors affecting the success and failure of an apartment building project. However, after the unit sale price has been determined and the sale has started, the most important factor affecting on the project is the initial sales ratio for one month after the sale. Generally, developers predict an initial sales ratio by various data such as economic situation, the trend of the housing market, and the house price near the business place. However, it is very difficult for these factors to be calculated quantitatively in connection with the initial sales ratio. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to develop a regression model for forecasting the initial sales ratio of apartment building projects. For this study, pre-sales data collection, correlation analysis between influencing factors, and regression model development are performed sequentially. The results of this study are used as basic data for predicting the initial sales ratio in the feasibility analysis of apartment building projects and are used as key data for the development of the risk management model.

키워드

참고문헌

  1. Kwon HS, Bang DW. A study on the cause of difference between new apartment subscription rate and initial pre-sale contract rate. Housing Studies Review. 2015 Aug;23(3):111-43.
  2. Michael B, Vicky S. Michael S. Residential real estate prices: a room with a view. Journal of Real Estate Research. 2002 Mar;23(1-2):129-38. https://doi.org/10.5555/rees.23.1-2.m2252681kl24h0th
  3. Woo KT, Kim YS, Chin SY. A study on the sale price estimation model for multistory apartment units through comparison of factors influencing the sale price. Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea Structure & Construction, 2003 Feb;19(2):141-8.
  4. Park MS, Chu YS, Lee HS, Kim WY. Evaluation methods for construction projects. Journal of Civil Engineering and Management. 2009 Aug;15(4):349-59. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/1392-3730.2009.15.349-359
  5. Shi MY, Chee HC. Obstruction of view and its impact on residential apartment prices. Pacific Rim Property Research Journal. 2015 Mar;11(3):299-315. https://doi.org/10.1080/14445921.2005.11104189
  6. Huh YK, Hwang BG, Lee JS. Feasibility analysis model for developer-proposed housing projects in the republic of Korea. Journal of Civil Engineering and Management. 2012 Jun;18(3):345-55. https://doi.org/10.3846/13923730.2012.698911
  7. Yang OH, Kim MS, Hwang US, Kim YS. The analysis of importance ratio factors of sales price for apartment building construction projects. Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 2011 Sep;12(5):127-36. https://doi.org/10.6106/KJCEM.2011.12.5.127
  8. Lee CW, Min GS. A study on determinant of new apartment lotting-out. Journal of Korea Real Estate Society. 2015 Dec; 33(2):45-64.
  9. Park JB, Kwon KB, Cho Y, Paek, JH. Feasibility analysis model study of realestate development-focused on construction project development of apartment and stores. Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea. 2008 Sep;24(3):179-86.
  10. Kim HK. The macroeconomic effect on the ratio of unsold condominium [master's thesis]. [Seoul (Korea)]: Konkuk University; 2005. 43 p.
  11. Seo JH. Analysis on the factors that affect the initial sales of apartment units [master's thesis]. [Busan (Korea)]: Busan University; 2009. 60 p.
  12. Kim CS. A study on determinants of new apartment selling rate [master's thesis]. [Seoul (Korea)]: Konkuk University; 2003. 70 p.
  13. Baik MS, Shin JC. A study on the determinants of initial sales rate for new apartment housing. Journal of Korean Urban Management Association. 2011 Mar;24(1):213-37.
  14. Park HS. A feasible sale price assessment model of apartment housing units considering market price and buying power [dissertation]. [Suwon (Korea)]: Kyung Hee University; 2015. 113 p.
  15. Son SH. A simulation model for feasibility analysis of apartment building projects using system dynamics [master's thesis]. [Suwon (Korea)]: Kyung Hee University; 2018. 68 p.
  16. Park JY. A system development for risk management of apartment building projects using system dynamics [dissertation]. [Suwon (Korea)]: Kyung Hee University; 2018. 126 p.
  17. Won IW. An investment risk management model of apartment building projects using system dynamics technique [dissertation]. [Suwon (Korea)]: Kyung Hee University; 2014. 133 p.
  18. Shin DH. A risk analysis model for apartment building Project [dissertation]. [Suwon (Korea)]: Kyung Hee University; 2012. 155 p.
  19. Jung JY, Yoon TK. A study on the equilibrium-pricing mechanism of apartment. Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction, 2008 Dec;8(6):65-74. https://doi.org/10.5345/JKIC.2008.8.6.065
  20. Park HS, Sun SL, Kim JJ. A study of the influential factors on customer-based apartment brand equity. Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea. 2006 Jul;22(7):83-90.
  21. Shin HW, Kim DW, Kim GH, Kang KI. The research on the preference factors of apartment brand. Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction. 2008 Feb;8(1):77-82. https://doi.org/10.5345/JKIC.2008.8.1.077
  22. Song SJ, Shin JC. A study on the influencing factors on resale premium of pre-completion apartment ownership. Journal of the Korean Urban Management Association, 2017 Dec;30(4):151-73. https://doi.org/10.36700/KRUMA.2017.12.30.4.151
  23. Yu YJ, Son KY, Kim TH, Kim JM. A risk quantification study for accident causes on building construction site by applying probabilistic forecast concept. Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction. 2017 Jun;17(3):287-94. https://doi.org/10.5345/JKIBC.2017.17.3.287