Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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Calculations of probability of pipe breakage according to service year

상수도관의 사용연수에 따른 관파괴확률 산정

  • Received : 2019.08.02
  • Accepted : 2019.08.19
  • Published : 2019.08.31
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Abstract

Reduced thickness of the water pipes due to corrosion makes it difficult to perform the original functions since corrosion in metallic water pipes can occur over time. In this study, reliability model that can estimate the probability of pipe breakage is developed regarding corrosion depth increment according to service year. Probability of pipe breakage was calculated by FORM(First Order Reliability Method) and unsteady analysis was performed to analyze the statistical properties of water pressure. And KCIP(Korea Cast Iron Pipe) equation was adopted for the reliability function. Furthermore, change of pipe thickness was estimated by Nahal and Khelif equation and Romanoff equation. Therefore, pipe thickness was calculated due to change of corrosion depth and probability of pipe breakage was calculated and compared with 10, 20, 30 service years. From the results, probability of pipe breakage for network A is gradually increased from 6.8% to 8.6% according to service year of 10, 20, 30 when Nahal and Khelif equation is applied. And probability of pipe breakage for network A is also gradually increased from 6.4% to 8.9% according to service year of 10, 20, 30 when Romanoff equation is applied.

상수도관은 시간이 흐름에 따라 부식이 발생할 수 있으며 이로 인해 관두께가 작아져 기존의 성능을 발휘하기 힘들어진다. 이에 본 연구에서는 관두께 변화에 따른 파괴확률을 정량적으로 산정할 수 있는 수치모형을 개발하였으며 이를 실제 상수도관망에 적용하여 사용연수가 증가함에 따라 파괴확률이 어떻게 변화하는지 분석하였다. 파괴확률은 FORM(First Order Reliability Method)를 사용하여 산정되었고 압력의 통계적 특성을 분석하기 위해 여러 가지 다른 시나리오를 이용하여 부정류해석을 수행하였으며 신뢰함수로는 주장력공식을 개선한 KCIP(Korea Cast Iron Pipe)식을 사용하였다. 또한 부식으로 인한 두께변화를 산정하기 위하여 Nahal and Khelif식과 Romanoff의 식을 사용하였으며 이를 통하여 10년, 20년, 30년 후의 부식으로 인한 관두께를 추정하였고 이에 따른 파괴확률을 산정하여 비교분석하였다. 본 연구에서 적용된 상수도관망A의 경우 Nahal and Khelif의 식을 사용하였을 때 100 mm 직경의 강관이 사용연수가 10년, 20년, 30년으로 증가할 경우 파괴확률은 상수도압 $12kg/cm^2$ 일 때 각각 6.8%, 7.8%, 8.5%로 점진적으로 증가하는 것을 알 수 있었고, Romanoff의 식을 사용하였을 경우 6.4%, 7.5%, 8.9%로 증가하는 것을 확인하였다.

Keywords

References

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