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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2019.52.8.555

Calculations of probability of pipe breakage according to service year  

Kwon, Hyuk Jae (Department of Civil Engineering, Cheongju University)
Kim, Hyeong Gi (Department of Civil Engineering, Cheongju University)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.52, no.8, 2019 , pp. 555-563 More about this Journal
Abstract
Reduced thickness of the water pipes due to corrosion makes it difficult to perform the original functions since corrosion in metallic water pipes can occur over time. In this study, reliability model that can estimate the probability of pipe breakage is developed regarding corrosion depth increment according to service year. Probability of pipe breakage was calculated by FORM(First Order Reliability Method) and unsteady analysis was performed to analyze the statistical properties of water pressure. And KCIP(Korea Cast Iron Pipe) equation was adopted for the reliability function. Furthermore, change of pipe thickness was estimated by Nahal and Khelif equation and Romanoff equation. Therefore, pipe thickness was calculated due to change of corrosion depth and probability of pipe breakage was calculated and compared with 10, 20, 30 service years. From the results, probability of pipe breakage for network A is gradually increased from 6.8% to 8.6% according to service year of 10, 20, 30 when Nahal and Khelif equation is applied. And probability of pipe breakage for network A is also gradually increased from 6.4% to 8.9% according to service year of 10, 20, 30 when Romanoff equation is applied.
Keywords
Corrosion; Pipe thickness; Probability of pipe breakage; Unsteady analysis; Water pipe;
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