Informatization Policy (정보화정책)

National Information Society Agency (한국지능정보사회진흥원)
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The Impact of ICT Sector on Economic Output and Growth

ICT 산업이 생산 및 경제성장에 미치는 영향 - 4차 산업혁명 관련 산업을 중심으로

  • Received : 2019.03.14
  • Accepted : 2019.05.21
  • Published : 2019.06.30
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Abstract

This paper analyzes the size of direct and indirect impact of the information and communication technology(ICT) producing sector to the Korean economic growth We first divide the entire economy into the ICT producing sector and the ICT using sector, and estimate the contributions to the economic growth by each sector. We also try to answer the question on what the possible causes of the ICT producing sector's contribution are to growth. In oder to find the answer, we focus on the change in the relative prices of ICT products produced in the ICT producing sector and examine the long-term relations among the relative prices of ICT products, the ratio of ICT products used in the ICT using sector as an intermediate input, and the output of the entire economy. We find that the overall economic growth has been weakened but the ICT sector's contribution to the growth has increased. Specifically, the indirect contribution of the ICT producing sector, through the ICT using sector, to economic growth was greater than the direct contribution of the ICT producing sector itself. We also find a stable, long-term negative relation between the relative prices of ICT products produced in the ICT producing sector and the ratio of ICT products as an intermediate input in the ICT using sector. In addition, the decrease in the relative prices of ICT products produced in the ICT producing sector increases the use of ICT products in the ICT using sector and the output of the entire economy. These findings can be interpreted that the price decrease in the ICT products improves the production efficiency in other sectors and helps directly and indirectly, accelerating growth of the entire economy.

본고는 정보통신기술(ICT) 산업을 ICT 생산 산업과 ICT 이용 산업으로 구분하고 각 산업의 경제성장 기여도를 추정하였다. 이를 통해 ICT 생산 산업이 전체 경제성장에 미치는 직 간접적인 영향의 크기를 분석하였다. 한편, 이러한 산업별 성장기여도 분석은 각 산업이 전체 경제성장에서 차지하는 비중의 크기를 사후적으로 보여줄 수는 있어도, 특정 산업이 전체 경제에 영향을 미치는 파급 원인 및 그 과정에 대하여는 파악할 수 없다는 단점이 있다. 이러한 단점을 극복하고자 본고는 ICT 생산 산업 재화의 가격변화에 초점을 두고 ICT 생산 산업 재화의 상대가격, ICT 이용 산업에 투입되는 ICT 생산 재화의 비중, 경제 전체의 생산 간에 장기적으로 안정적인 관계가 존재하는지 여부를 실증분석 하였다. 분석 결과 경제 전체의 성장은 지속적으로 둔화되고 있으나 ICT 관련한 산업의 전체 경제 성장에 기여하는 정도가 꾸준히 증가한 것으로 나타났다. 특히, ICT 생산 산업이 전체 경제성장에 직접 기여한 것 보다는 ICT 이용 산업을 통해 간접적으로 기여한 효과가 더 큰 것으로 나타났다. 한편, ICT 생산 산업 재화의 상대가격과 ICT 이용 산업에 투입되는 ICT 생산 재화의 비중 간에 장기적으로 안정적인 부(-)의 관계가 있는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 ICT 생산 산업 재화의 상대가격 하락이 ICT 이용 산업에 투입되는 ICT 생산 재화의 비중을 증가시키고 이를 통해 경제 전체의 생산도 증대시키는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 ICT 생산 산업의 가격하락이 여타 산업의 생산효율을 증가시켜 경제전체의 성장에 직 간접적으로 영향을 주는 것으로 해석될 수 있다.

Keywords

JBSHBC_2019_v26n2_24_f0001.png 이미지

<그림 1> ICT 관련 부문의 GDP 비율 GDP Ratio of ICT Related Sectors*

JBSHBC_2019_v26n2_24_f0002.png 이미지

<그림 2> 부문별 실질 GDP 성장률 Real GDP Growth by Sector*

JBSHBC_2019_v26n2_24_f0003.png 이미지

<그림 3> 부문별 GDP 디플레이터 GDP Deflator by Sector

JBSHBC_2019_v26n2_24_f0004.png 이미지

<그림 4> 부문별 상대가격 Relative Prices by Sector

JBSHBC_2019_v26n2_24_f0005.png 이미지

<그림 5> ICT-u 부문에서 중간재화로 이용되는 ICT 재화의 비율과 실질 GDP Ratio of ICT Product As an Intermediate Input in the ICT Using Sector and the Real GDP

<표 1> 부문별 실질 GDP 성장률에 대한 기여율

Contribution to Real GDP Growth by Sector1)

JBSHBC_2019_v26n2_24_t0001.png 이미지

<표 2> 단위근 검정 결과

Unit Root Test Result1)

JBSHBC_2019_v26n2_24_t0002.png 이미지

<표 3> 공적분 검정 결과 : (pt, zt)

Cointegration Test Result : (pt, zt)

JBSHBC_2019_v26n2_24_t0003.png 이미지

<표 4> Granger 인과관계 검정 결과 : (pt, zt)1)

Granger Causality Test Result : (pt, zt)1)

JBSHBC_2019_v26n2_24_t0004.png 이미지

<표 5> CCR과 FMOLS 추정 결과 : (zt, pt)

Estimation Results Using CCR and FMOLS : (zt, pt)

JBSHBC_2019_v26n2_24_t0005.png 이미지

<표 6> 공적분 검정 결과 : (yt, pt, zt)

Cointegration Test Result : (yt, pt, zt)

JBSHBC_2019_v26n2_24_t0006.png 이미지

<표 7> Granger 인과관계 검정 결과 : (pt, zt), (zt, yt), (yt, pt)

Result of Granger Causality Test : (pt, zt), (zt, yt), (yt, pt)

JBSHBC_2019_v26n2_24_t0007.png 이미지

<표 8> Granger 인과관계 검정 결과 : (ẑt, yt)1)

Result of Granger Causality Test : (ẑt, yt)1)

JBSHBC_2019_v26n2_24_t0008.png 이미지

<표 9> CCR과 FMOLS 추정 결과 : yt=𝜔0+𝜔1ẑt+ζt

Estimation Results using CCR and FMOLS : yt=𝜔0+𝜔1ẑt+ζt

JBSHBC_2019_v26n2_24_t0009.png 이미지

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