A Spatial Analysis Based on the Amendments in Seoul's 2030 Youth Housing Policy Using Propositional Logic

명제논리 기반 서울시 역세권 2030청년주택 운영기준의 개정효과 분석

Abstract

The Seoul's 2030 Youth-Housing has been regarded as the only option to procure rental housing sites in downtown Seoul. But its supply did not catch up with the initial expectation, and the criticism that it may disrupt the current zoning system of the city has persisted. Consequently, the 2030 Youth-Housing policy has undergone amendments for six times within the last three years, and the significant changes in its guideline also have been made within the last one year. The study, in this context, tries to figure out the tendencies of those changes made in the guidelines so far by analyzing the aspects of the parcels allowable for Youth-Housing as well as the areas allowable for up-zoning. In the process, the propositional logic is to be adopted to draw the scope of the buildable areas for Youth-Housing. For this, the study refines the raw GIS data, inputs the values for each proposition, and proceeds the logical operation to judge every parcel of the city to discern whether it is eligible for a buildable site and/or for up-zoning for Youth-Housing. It is seen that: 1) the buildable sites rather evenly distribute around the peripheral subway-station areas while more concentrating on the quasi-residential and commercial areas; and 2) the areas eligible for up-zoning have the tendency to concentrate more on quasi-residential areas than others.

역세권 2030청년주택 정책은 역세권 개발이 서울시 내 임대주택 택지를 확보하기 위한 유일한 대안이라는 인식 가운데 기대를 받으며 출범했다. 그러나 임대주택 공급실적은 당초 계획에 미치지 못했고 용도지역체계에 혼란을 줄 수 있다는 비판이 지속적으로 제기되었다. 결국, 역세권 2030청년주택은 시행 후 3년 사이에 운영기준이 6차례 개정되었다. 특히 2018년 10월 이후에는 1년 이내에 큰 폭의 운영기준 개정이 두 차례 이어졌다. 이에 본 연구는 사업가능구역과 용도지역 변경 가능구역의 변화 양상을 분석하여, 지난 운영기준 개정의 방향성 평가와 정책적 시사성을 도출하고자 했다. 공간적 범위 및 구역의 도출에는 명제논리를 활용했다. 이를 위해, 가구(街區) 등 기초자료 정제 및 전처리, 명제별 진리 값 입력, 논리연산 과정을 수행하여 사업가능구역 및 용도지역 변경 가능구역 소속여부를 판별했다. 분석 결과, 1) 사업가능구역은 서울시 외곽의 역세권으로 고르게 분산되면서도 준주거지역과 상업지역으로 집중되는 경향이 있고, 2) 용도지역 변경 가능구역은 준주거지역 변경 가능구역을 중심으로 전반적인 증가추세가 두드러졌다.

Figure 1. Station areas in Seoul

Figure 2. Trends of count and area(ha) in project feasible blocks

Figure 3. Project feasible blocks from 2nd to 4st amendment of guidelines

Figure 4. Project feasible blocks for 5th amendment of guidelines

Figure 5. Project feasible blocks for 6th amendment of guidelines

Figure 6. Trends of count and area(ha) in blocks can alter to quasi-residential area

Figure 7. Alteration to quasi-residential area feasible blocks from 2nd to 3rd amendment of guidelines

Figure 8. Alteration to quasi-residential area feasible blocks for 4th amendment of guidelines

Figure 9. Alteration to quasi-residential area feasible blocks from 5th to 6th amendment of guidelines

Figure 10. Trends of count and area(ha) in blocks can alter to neighboring commercial area

Figure 11. Trends of count and area(ha) in blocks can alter to general commercial area

Figure 12. Alteration to general commercial area feasible blocks from 2nd to 3rd amendment of guidelines

Figure 13. Alteration to general commercial area feasible blocks for 4th amendment of guidelines

Figure 14. Alteration to general commercial area feasible blocks from 5th to 6th amendment of guidelines

Table 1. Highlights of the amendments in the ordinance

Table 2. Highlights of the amendments in the Guideline

Table 3. List of propositions that express the logical operations