Journal of the Korea Convergence Society (한국융합학회논문지)

Korea Convergence Society (한국융합학회)
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Determinants of Homicide Locations Using Spatial Regression Analysis

공간회귀분석을 활용한 살인사건 영향요인 분석

  • Lee, Soochang (Department of Police Administration, Kyungwoon University)
  • 이수창 (경운대학교 경찰행정학과)
  • Received : 2019.02.21
  • Accepted : 2019.05.20
  • Published : 2019.05.28
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Abstract

This study is to examine the impact of spatial characteristics of cities on homicide based on spatial econometric model. It selects housing types, racial heterogeneity, residential instability, overcrowding, commercial area, rate of 15 to 29 ages, and rate of the elderly as variables for spatial characteristics of cities. This study employs spatial regression analysis applying the spatial error model to analyze the data from 229 locals collected from Korean Statistical Information Service and Statistical Year Book of local governments. As a result, it shows that homicide has close relationships with apartment and multi-housing as housing types, racial heterogeneity, residential instability, and overcrowding, but not with the commercial area, rate of 15 to 29 ages, and rate of the elderly. The study contributes to expanding understanding and explanation on the causes of homicide focusing on social-structure approach for criminology by analyzing a more advanced model in applying variables than one of existing literature. This study suggests follow-up research on homicide based on both social-behavior approach and social-structure approach in the near future for the development of criminological theory.

본 연구는 도시 공간적 특성에서 살인사건의 발생 원인을 규명해보고자 한다. 이에 살인사건에 영향을 미치는 도시 공간적 특성요인으로 주택 유형, 인종적 이질성, 거주 불안정성, 인구 과밀화, 상업지역, 청소년과 성인 초기 그리고 노인 인구비율을 선정하였다. 분석자료는 229개 시군구를 대상으로 2016년 국가통계포털, 17개 광역자치단체의 통계연보 등을 활용하여 수집하였으며 공간오차모형(SEM)을 활용한 회귀분석을 실시하였다. 공간회귀분석을 실시한 결과, 주택 유형 중 아파트, 인종적 이질성, 거주 불안정성, 인구 과밀화는 유의수준 0.01에서 그리고 주택 유형 중 다세대 주택은 유의수준 0.1에서 살인사건에 유의미한 영향을 미치는 도시 공간적 특성요인으로 확인되었다. 하지만, 주택 유형 중 단독주택과 연립주택, 상업지역, 거주민의 특성인 청소년과 성인 초기 그리고 노인 인구비율은 유의미한 영향을 미치지 못하는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구는 선행연구에 비해 확장된 연구모형을 적용함으로써 사회구조적 측면에서 살인사건의 원인에 관한 이해와 설명을 확대하는데 기여하였다. 향후 살인사건의 발생 원인을 사회행태적 측면과 사회구조적 측면을 결합한 후속 연구의 필요성이 적지 않다.

Keywords

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Fig. 1. Research Model

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Fig. 2. Spatial Distribution of Homicide

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Fig. 3. Results of SEM

Table 1. Variable Measurement

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Table 2. Multicollinearity Using VIF

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Table 3. Spatial Autocorrelation Using Moran’s I

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Table 4. Non-nomality and Heteroskedasticity

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Table 5. Spatial Dependence

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Table 6. Spatial Regression Analysis

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