Fig. 1. A linear graph showing damage-inducing temperatures associated with bud burst, flowering, and post-flowering dates. These data were used to derive the actual risk index.
Fig. 2. Bud burst dates distributions of ‘Fuji’ apple, ‘Changhowon’ peach, and ‘Niitaka’ pear over the South Korea in 2018. Geographical areas corresponding to bud burst dates on April 8 are marked with a red bold line and main production areas for each fruit are marked with black bold line.
Fig. 3. Flowering dates distributions of ‘Fuji’ apple, ‘Changhowon’ peach, and ‘Niitaka’ pear over the South Korea in 2018. Geographical areas corresponding to flowering dates on April 8 are marked with a red bold line and main production areas for each fruit are marked with black bold line.
Fig. 4. Geographic distribution for number of spring freeze damaged for apple, peach, and pear in 2018. The main production areas for each fruit are marked with black bold line.
Fig. 5. Geographic distribution of spring freeze risk probability for apple, peach, and pear on 8 April 2018. The main production areas for each fruit are marked with black bold line.
Table 1. Cumulative heat unit needed for bud burst (Hub) and flowering (HUf), linear function for estimation of spring frost damage (SFD) by developmental stage of fruit flower buds
Table 2. Flowering dates in 2018, and minimum temperature, damaged area, and the average/maximum spring freeze risk probability on April 8 in main production areas for each fruit
References
- Cesaraccio, C., D. Spano, R. L. Snyder, and P. Duce, 2004: Chilling and forcing model to predict bud-burst of crop and forest species. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 126, 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2004.03.002
- Cho, J. H., J. M. Suh, J. S. Kang, C. O. Hong, H. M. Shin, S. G. Lee, and W. T. Lim, 2013: The economic impacts of abnormal climate on fall Chinese cabbage farmers and consumers. Journal of Environmental Science International 22(12), 1691-1698. (in Korean with English abstract) doi:10.5322/JESI.2013.22.12.1691
- Kim, D. J., and J. H. Kim, 2018: An outlook of changes in the flowering dates and low temperature after flowering under the RCP8.5 projected climate condition. Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 20(4), 313-320. (in Korean with English abstract) doi:10.5532/KJAFM.2018.20.4.313
- Kim, J. H., S. O. Kim, U. Chung, K. H. Hwang, J. B. Kim, I. K. Yoon, and J. I. Yun, 2009a: Geospatial assessment of frost and freeze risk in 'Changhowon Hwangdo' peach (Prunus perica) trees as affected by the projected winter warming in South Korea: II. Freezing risk index based on dormancy depth as a proxy for physiological tolerance to freezing temperature. Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 11(4), 213-220. (in Korean with English abstract) https://doi.org/10.5532/KJAFM.2009.11.4.213
- Kim, S. O., U. Chung, S. H. Kim, I. M. Choi, and J. I. Yun, 2009b: The suitable region and site for 'Fuji' apple under the projected climate in South Korea. Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 11(4), 162-173. (in Korean with English abstract) https://doi.org/10.5532/KJAFM.2009.11.4.162
- Kim, S. O., J. H. Kim, U. Chung, S. H. Kim, G. H. Park, and J. I. Yun, 2009c: Quantification of temperature effects on flowering date determination in Niitaka pear. Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 11(2), 61-71. (in Korean with English abstract) https://doi.org/10.5532/KJAFM.2009.11.2.061
- KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration), 2019: Abnormal Climate Report 2018 (이상기후 보고서), 198pp.
- KOSIS (Korean Statistical Information Service), 2018: http://kosis.kr (2018.12.31)
- Lim, S. H., J. J. Choi, J. H. Choi, S. J. Kim, Y. H. Kwon, J. H. Han, and H. C. Lee, 2014: Freezing hardiness of several pear cultivars according to degree and duration of low temperatures. Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 16(1), 51-58. (in Korean with English abstract) doi: 10.5532/KJAFM.2014.16.1.51
- Proebsting, E. L., and H. H. Mills, 1978: Low temperature resistance of developing flower buds of six deciduous fruit species. Journal of the American Society for Horticultural Science 103, 192-198.
- RDA (Rural Development Administration), 2018: http://www.nongsaro.go.kr (2018.12.31)
- Stern, N., 2006: The Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. 575pp.
- UNISDR (United Nation Office of Disaster Risk Reduction), 2018: https://www.unisdr.org/ (2018.12.31)
- Westwood, M. N., 1993: Temperate-zone Pomology: Physiology and Culture (3rd ed.). Timber Press Inc., 428-429.
- 고광출, 문두길, 1979: 개화기 전후 저온처리에 의한 복숭아, 배 및 사과 화기의 저온 장해. 서울대농학연구 4(2), 179-188.
- 한점화, 2018: 2018년 과수 개화기 저온피해 현황 및 대응책. 한국과수협회 235, 16-20.