디지털융복합연구 (Journal of Digital Convergence)

한국디지털정책학회 (The Society of Digital Policy and Management)
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공간회귀분석을 통한 지방자치단체 복지지출의 영향요인에 관한 연구

A study using spatial regression models on the determinants of the welfare expenditure in the local governments in Korea

  • 박규범 (서울시립대학교 (사회보장정보원 )) ;
  • 함영진 (한국보건사회연구원)
  • Park, Gyu-Beom (University of Seoul(Social Security Information Service)) ;
  • Ham, Young-Jin (Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs)
  • 투고 : 2018.08.30
  • 심사 : 2018.10.20
  • 발행 : 2018.10.28
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초록

본 연구의 목적은 기초자치단체 간 사회복지지출의 공간적 자기상관성을 살펴보고, 사회복지지출 규모에 영향을 미치는 요인을 분석하는 데 있다. 본 연구에서는 공간적 자기상관성을 고려한 공간오차모형을 적용하여 복지지출에 영향을 미친 영향요인을 분석하였다. 분석결과 지자체 간 1인당 사회복지지출의 공간적 자기상관성이 나타났다. 그리고 공간회귀분석을 통해 선행연구에서 도출된 각 요인들이 1인당 사회복지지출에 미치는 영향을 살펴보면, 사회 경제적 요인, 행정적 요인 그리고 재정자주도 요인은 지자체 복지지출에 정(+)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 분석되었다. 반면 전년도 복지예산, 정치적 요인, 지방세 등은 복지지출에 영향을 미치지 않은 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구는 기존 선행 연구와는 달리 지자체 간 복지지출의 공간적 자기상관성을 확인하고 영향요인을 살펴본 데 의의가 있다. 본 연구에서는 횡단적 분석만을 실시하였기에, 향후에는 다년도 사회복지지출 자료를 활용한 시계열 분석이 이루어질 필요성이 있다.

The purpose of this study is to analyse the determinants of the change in the welfare expenditure of local governments in 2015. This study analyzed the spatial correlation of welfare expenditure among neighboring local governments and determined the factors affecting the welfare expenditures. According to the results of the study, spatial correlation of welfare expenditure among local governments appears. Determinants, such as socio-economic factors, administrative factors, public financial factors are affecting the amount of the welfare expenditures, but local political factors, and local tax, last year's budgets are not correlated with the amount of local welfare expenditures. In this study, it is significant to found out that the spatial correlation of welfare expenditure among the local governments and to examine the determinants. If possible, it is necessary to analyze the time-series analysis using the multi-year welfare expenditure data, expecially self-welfare expenditures.

키워드

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