Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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Development of bias correction scheme for high resolution precipitation forecast

고해상도 강수량 수치예보에 대한 편의 보정 기법 개발

  • Uranchimeg, Sumiya (Department of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National University) ;
  • Kim, Ji-Sung (Hydro Science and Engineering Research Institute, Korean Institute of Science and Technology) ;
  • Kim, Kyu-Ho (Hydro Science and Engineering Research Institute, Korean Institute of Science and Technology) ;
  • Kwon, Hyun-Han (Department of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National University)
  • 오랑치맥 솜야 (전북대학교 공과대학 토목공학과) ;
  • 김지성 (한국건설기술연구원 수자원.하천연구소) ;
  • 김규호 (한국건설기술연구원 수자원.하천연구소) ;
  • 권현한 (전북대학교 공과대학 토목공학과)
  • Received : 2018.02.14
  • Accepted : 2018.03.30
  • Published : 2018.07.31
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Abstract

An increase in heavy rainfall and floods have been observed over South Korea due to recent abnormal weather. In this perspective, the high-resolution weather forecasts have been widely used to facilitate flood management. However, these models are known to be biased due to initial conditions and topographical conditions in the process of model building. Theretofore, a bias correction scheme is largely applied for the practical use of the prediction to flood management. This study introduces a new mean field bias correction (MFBC) approach for the high-resolution numerical rainfall products, which is based on a Bayesian Kriging model to combine an interpolation technique and MFBC approach for spatial representation of the error. The results showed that the proposed method can reliably estimate the bias correction factor over ungauged area with an improvement in the reduction of errors. Moreover, it can be seen that the bias corrected rainfall forecasts could be used up to 72 hours ahead with a relatively high accuracy.

최근 이상기후로 인한 집중호우 발생빈도와 이로 인한 국지적인 홍수 피해가 증가하고 있다. 이러한 점에서 홍수피해 예방측면에서 수치예보 정보 활용이 요구되고 있다. 그러나 수치예보모델은 초기 조건 및 지형적 요인으로 인해 시공간적 편의가 존재하며 실시간 예측정보로 활용하기 전에 모형결과에 대한 편의보정이 요구된다. 본 연구에서는 관측지점 기준으로 편의 보정계수를 산정하는 과정에서 모든 관측소간의 상관성을 거리의 함수로 고려하여 미계측지점의 편의 보정계수를 공간적으로 확장할 수 있는 Bayesian Kriging 기반 MFBC 기법을 개발하였다. 본 연구에서 개발한 방법은 미계측 유역에 대해서도 보정계수를 효과적으로 추정하는 것이 확인되었으며, 비교적 고해상도로 72시간(3일) 정도까지 예측강우 정보를 활용하는 것이 가능할 것으로 판단된다.

Keywords

References

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