Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction (한국건축시공학회지)

The Korean Institute of Building Construction (한국건축시공학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

A Risk Quantification Study for Accident Causes on Building Construction Site by Applying Probabilistic Forecast Concept

확률론적 추정 개념을 적용한 건설 공사 현장의 사고원인별 리스크 정량화 연구

  • Yu, Yeong-Jin (School of Architectural Engineering, University of Ulsan) ;
  • Son, Kiyoung (School of Architectural Engineering, University of Ulsan) ;
  • Kim, Taehui (Department of Architectural Engineering, Mokpo National University) ;
  • Kim, Ji-Myong (Construction Science Department, Texas A&M University)
  • Received : 2017.01.17
  • Accepted : 2017.05.08
  • Published : 2017.06.20
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

Recently the construction project is becoming large-sized, complicated, and modernize. This has increased the uncertainty of construction risk. Therefore, studies should be followed regarding scientifically identifying the risk factors, quantifying the frequency and severity of risk factors in order to develop a model that can quantitatively evaluate and manage the risk for response the increased risk in construction. To address the problem, this study analyze the probability distribution of risk causes, the probability of occurrence and frequency of the specific risk level through Monte Carlo simulation method based on the accident data caused at construction sites. In the end, this study derives quantitative analysis by analyzing the amount of risk and probability distributions of accident causes. The results of this study will be a basis for future quantitative risk management models and risk management research.

최근 건설프로젝트가 대형화 복잡화되어 감에 따라, 건설공사에서의 리스크 및 불확실성이 급증하고 있다. 증가하고 있는 건설 공사의 위험을 정량적으로 평가하고 관리 할 수 있는 모델 개발을 위해서는 위험 인자를 식별하고 위험인자의 발생 빈도와 심도를 계량화하는 연구가 우선되어야 한다. 이에 본 연구에서는 건설현장에서 발생한 사고 데이터를 기반으로 하여 위험요인의 확률분포 및 리스크 레벨별 위험의 발생 확률과 위험의 발생 빈도를 몬테카를로 기법을 통해 시뮬레이션하였다. 시뮬레이션을 통해 사고 원인의 확률 분포 및 사고 원인별 위험도를 분석하여 계량적 분석 결과를 도출하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 향후 정량적 위험관리모델 및 위험관리 연구를 위한 기초 자료가 될 것이다.

Keywords

References

  1. Kim JH, Park DJ. A study on the review of risk concepts. Journal of the Korean Society of Safety. 2013 Oct;28(6):90-6. https://doi.org/10.14346/JKOSOS.2013.28.6.090
  2. Park JB, Cho Y, Kwon KB, Paek JH. Feasibility analysis model study of realestate development: focused on construction project development of apartment and stores. Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea (Structure & Construction). 2008 Mar;24 (3):179-86.
  3. Kim CH, Kang LS, Park HT. Development of a risk management procedure model for the construction project using construction risk management system. Journal of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers. 2010 July;30(4D):423-32.
  4. Kim JH. A study of the risk reflection on the expansion of construction insurance. Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction. 2010 Jun;10(3):99-111. https://doi.org/10.5345/JKIC.2010.10.3.099
  5. Sameh MES. Risk assessment and allocation in the UAE construction industry. International Journal of Project Management. 2008 May;26(4):431-8. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2007.07.004
  6. Dariusz S. Identification and initial risk assessment of construction projects in poland. Journal of management in engineering. 2008 Jul;24(3):120-7. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0742-597X(2008)24:3(120)
  7. Sun Y, Fang D, Wang S, Dai MD, Lv X. Safety risk identification and assessment for Beijing olympic venues construction. Journal of Management in Engineering. 2008 Jan;24(1):40-7. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0742-597X(2008)24:1(40)
  8. Nasir D, McCabe B, Hartono L. Evaluating risk in construction–schedule model :Construction schedule risk model. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management. 2003 Oct;129(5):518-27. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2003)129:5(518)
  9. Lee HS, Kim HS, Park MS, Teo EAL, Lee KP. Construction risk assessment using site influence factors. Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering. 2012 May;26(3):319-30. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CP.1943-5487.0000146
  10. Kim KS. A Study of the risk reflection on the expansion of construction insurance [dissertation]. [Seoul (Korea)]: Hanyang university; 2009. 59 p.
  11. Lee HS, Kim HS, Park MS, Lee KP, Lee SB. Construction risk assessment methodology using site risk influence factors. Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management. 2009 Nov;10(6):117-26.
  12. Muga H, Mukherjee A, Mihelcic J. An integrated assessment of the sustainability of green and built-up roofs. Journal of Green Building. 2008 Mar;3(2):106-27. https://doi.org/10.3992/jgb.3.2.106
  13. Kim TH, Choi JS, Park YJ, Son KY. Life cycle costing: maintenance and repair costs of hospital facilities using monte carlo simulation. Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction. 2013 Dec;13(6):541-8. https://doi.org/10.5345/JKIBC.2013.13.6.541
  14. Yu YJ, Son KY, Kim JM. Risk analysis using construction insurance claim payouts. Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction. 2016 Aug;16(4):349-357. https://doi.org/10.5345/JKIBC.2016.16.4.349
  15. Project Management Institute. Project management body of knowledge. 5th ed. Pennsylvania: Project Management Institute; 2013. Chapter 11. Project risk management; p. 309-53.