Journal of The Korean Society of Grassland and Forage Science (한국초지조사료학회지)

The Korean Society of Grassland and Forage Science (한국초지조사료학회)
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A Research on Yield Prediction of Mixed Pastures in Korea via Model Construction in Stages

혼파초지에서 모형의 단계적 적용을 통한 수량예측 연구

  • Oh, Seung Min (Department of Animal Life Science, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Kim, Moon Ju (Institute of Animal Resources, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Peng, Jinglun (Department of Animal Life Science, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Lee, Bae Hun (Department of Animal Life Science, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Kim, Ji Yung (Department of Animal Life Science, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Kim, Byong Wan (Department of Animal Life Science, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Jo, Mu Hwan (Foundation for the Rural Youth) ;
  • Sung, Kyung Il (Department of Animal Life Science, Kangwon National University)
  • 오승민 (강원대학교 동물생명과학대학) ;
  • 김문주 (강원대학교 동물자원공동연구소) ;
  • 팽경룬 (강원대학교 동물생명과학대학) ;
  • 이배훈 (강원대학교 동물생명과학대학) ;
  • 김지융 (강원대학교 동물생명과학대학) ;
  • 김병완 (강원대학교 동물생명과학대학) ;
  • 조무환 (농어촌청소년육성재단) ;
  • 성경일 (강원대학교 동물생명과학대학)
  • Received : 2017.02.07
  • Accepted : 2017.03.22
  • Published : 2017.03.30
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Abstract

The objective of this study was to select a model showing high-levels of interpretability which is high in R-squared value in terms of predicting the yield in the mixed pasture using the factors of fertilization, seeding rate and years after pasture establishment in steps, as well as the climate as a basic factor. The processes of constructing the yield prediction model for the mixed pasture were performed in the sequence of data collection (forage and climatic data), preparation, analysis, and model construction. Through this process, six models were constructed after considering climatic variables, fertilization management, seeding rates, and periods after pasture establishment years in steps, thereafter the optimum model was selected through considering the coincidence of the models to the forage production theories. As a result, Model VI (R squared = 53.8%) including climatic variables, fertilization amount, seeding rates, and periods after pasture establishment was considered as the optimum yield prediction model for mixed pastures in South Korea. The interpretability of independent variables in the model were decreased in the sequence of climatic variables(24.5%), fertilization amount(17.8%), seeding rates(10.7%), and periods after pasture establishment(0.8%). However, it is necessary to investigate the reasons of positive correlation between dry matter yield and days of summer depression (DSD) by considering cultivated locations and using other cumulative temperature related variables instead of DSD. Meanwhile the another research about the optimum levels of fertilization amounts and seeding rates is required using the quadratic term due to the certain value-centered distribution of these two variables.

본 연구는 기후요인을 이용한 혼파초지 수량예측모형을 기초로 하여 시비, 파종 및 조성연차 요인을 단계적으로 적용하여 해석력이 높은 모형을 선정하는데 목적이 있다. 혼파초지 수량예측모형 구축 과정은 자료(풀사료 및 기상자료)수집, 가공, 분석 및 모형 구축의 순이었다. 여기서 수량예측모형은 기후, 시비, 파종 및 조성연차 요인을 고려하여 6가지를 구축하였으며, 해석력 및 풀사료 생산 이론 측면의 검토를 통해 최적의 모형을 선택하였다. 그 결과 기후, 시비 및 파종과 조성연차(조성연차의 그룹화) 요인을 고려한 Model VI이 선택되었다(해석력=53.8%). Model VI의 요인 별 해석력은 기후요인이 가장 크고(24.5%) 시비(17.8%), 파종(10.7%) 및 조성연차(0.8%) 요인의 순이었다. 그러나 건물수량과 하고일수 간에 나타난 정(+)의 상관관계는 지역별 및 적산변수 등의 관점에서 검토가 필요하다. 또한 시비량 및 파종량은 특정값에 집중적으로 분포하고 있어 이차항(Quadratic term)을 이용하여 적정 수준에 관한 연구가 요구된다.

Keywords

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Cited by

  1. The Relationships between Dry Matter Yield and Days of Summer Depression in different Regions with Mixed Pasture vol.38, pp.1, 2018, https://doi.org/10.5333/KGFS.2018.38.1.53