Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences

The Korean Space Science Society (한국우주과학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

A Study on Re-entry Predictions of Uncontrolled Space Objects for Space Situational Awareness

  • Choi, Eun-Jung (Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute) ;
  • Cho, Sungki (Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute) ;
  • Lee, Deok-Jin (School of Mechanical Automotive Engineering, Kunsan National University) ;
  • Kim, Siwoo (Department of Aerospace Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology) ;
  • Jo, Jung Hyun (Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute)
  • Received : 2017.10.12
  • Accepted : 2017.11.24
  • Published : 2017.12.15
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

The key risk analysis technologies for the re-entry of space objects into Earth's atmosphere are divided into four categories: cataloguing and databases of the re-entry of space objects, lifetime and re-entry trajectory predictions, break-up models after re-entry and multiple debris distribution predictions, and ground impact probability models. In this study, we focused on reentry prediction, including orbital lifetime assessments, for space situational awareness systems. Re-entry predictions are very difficult and are affected by various sources of uncertainty. In particular, during uncontrolled re-entry, large spacecraft may break into several pieces of debris, and the surviving fragments can be a significant hazard for persons and properties on the ground. In recent years, specific methods and procedures have been developed to provide clear information for predicting and analyzing the re-entry of space objects and for ground-risk assessments. Representative tools include object reentry survival analysis tool (ORSAT) and debris assessment software (DAS) developed by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), spacecraft atmospheric re-entry and aerothermal break-up (SCARAB) and debris risk assessment and mitigation analysis (DRAMA) developed by European Space Agency (ESA), and semi-analytic tool for end of life analysis (STELA) developed by Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales (CNES). In this study, various surveys of existing re-entry space objects are reviewed, and an efficient re-entry prediction technique is suggested based on STELA, the life-cycle analysis tool for satellites, and DRAMA, a re-entry analysis tool. To verify the proposed method, the re-entry of the Tiangong-1 Space Lab, which is expected to re-enter Earth's atmosphere shortly, was simulated. Eventually, these results will provide a basis for space situational awareness risk analyses of the re-entry of space objects.

Keywords

References

  1. Aerospace, History of re-entries of Space Debris FAQs [Internet], cited 2017a Sep 07, available from: http://www.aerospace. org/cords/all-about-debris-and-reentry/space-debrisfaq/
  2. Aerospace, Tiangong-1 Reentry [Internet], cited 2017b Sep 07, available from: http://www.aerospace.org/cords/reentry-predictions/tiangong-1-reentry/
  3. Anselmo L, Pardini C, Satellite reentry predictions for the Italian civil protection authorities, Acta Astronaut. 87, 163-181 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2013.02.004
  4. Bandlamudi S, Mishra P, Satyadeb S, Purushothaman S, Renuka R, et al., Studies on various space debris re-entry analysis tools, in National Conference on Space Debris Management and Mitigation Techniques, Bengaluru, India, 10-11 Apr 2014.
  5. Braun V, Gelhaus J, Kebschull C, Sanchez-Oritz N, Oliveria J, et al., DRAMA 2.0- ESA's space debris risk assessment and mitigation analysis tool suite, Proceedings of the 64th International Astronautical Congress (IAC), Beijing, China, 23-27 Sep 2013.
  6. Choi EJ, Park JH, Cho SK, Shin SH, Chung DW, et al., Preparedness Plan for Space Hazards in Republic of Korea, in 2014 APNN&MAPWiST, Seoul, Korea, 29 July - 1 Aug 2014.
  7. Choi EJ, Cho SK, Park JH, Architecture design for the space situational awareness system in the preparedness plan for space hazards of republic of Korea, Proceedings of the 16th AMOS Technologies Conference, Maui, Hawaii, 15-18 Sep 2015a.
  8. Choi EJ, Cho SK, Park JH, Architecture design for a Korean space situational awareness system, in 2015 KSSS Fall Meeting, Kyeongju, Korea, 28-30 Oct 2015b.
  9. CNES, STELA User's Guide Version 2.5 (CNES, 2013).
  10. CAIB, Report of Columbia Accident Investigation Board Volume 1 (NASA, 2006).
  11. Del Monte L, The ESA's space situational awareness initiative: contributing to a safer Europe, 2nd AAAF International Conference "Military Space: Questions in Europe", Paris, France, 17-19 Sep 2007a.
  12. Del Monte L, A European approach to Space Situational Awareness, in 4th European Space Weather Week, Brussels, Belgium, 5-9 Nov 2007b.
  13. Dobarco-Otero J, Smith RN, Marichalar JJ, Opiela JN, Rochelle WC, et al., Upgrades to object reentry survival analysis tool (ORSAT) for spacecraft and launch vehicle upper stage applications, Proceedings of the 54th International Astronautical Congress, Bremen, Germany, 29 Sep - 3 Oct 2003.
  14. Dobarco-Otero J, Smith RN, Bledsoe KJ, Delaune RM, Rochelle WC, et al., The Object Reentry Survival Analysis Tool (ORSAT) - Version 6.0 and its application to spacecraft entry, Proceedings of the 56th International Astronautical Congress, Fukuoka, Japan, 17-21, Oct 2005.
  15. ESA/ESOC Space Debris Office, Debris Risk Assessment and Mitigation Analysis (DRAMA) Software User Manual 1.1 (ESA, 2017).
  16. Fritsche B, Note on the application of SCARAB to the MIR re-entry, Proceedings of the international workshop on "MIR deorbit", Darmstadt, Germany, 99-102, 14 May 2001.
  17. Fritsche B, Koppenwallner G, Computation of destructive satellite re-entries, Proceedings of the 3rd European Conference on Space Debris, Darmstadt, Germany, 527-532, 19-21 Mar 2001.
  18. Fuentes I, Bonetti D, Letterio F, Miguel G, Arnao G, et al., Upgrades of ESA's debris risk assessment and mitigation analysis (DRAMA) tool: spacecraft entry survival analysis module, Proceedings of 7th European Conference for Aeronautics and Space Sciences (EUCASS), Milan, Italy, 3-6 Jul 2017.
  19. Jo JH, Choi YJ, Yim HS, Choi J, Son JY, et al., Operation of official satellite re-entry monitoring room in Korea, J. Satell. Inf. Commun. 8, 150-159 (2013).
  20. KASI, Satellite Reentry Monitoring Room [Internet], cited 2017 Sep 29, available from: http://reentry.kasi.re.kr/situation/list.jsp
  21. Kennewell JA, Vo BN, An overview of space situational awareness, Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Fusion, Istanbul, Turkey, 1029-1036, 9-12 Jul 2013.
  22. Klinkrad H, Space Debris : Models and Risk Analysis (Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 2006), 241-243.
  23. Le Fevre C, Morand V, Fraysse H, Deleflie F, Mercier P, et al., Long term orbit propagation techniques developed in the frame of the French space act, Proceedings of the 5th IAASS conference -A Safer Space for Safer World, Versailles, France, 17-19 Oct 2011.
  24. Lee E, Park SY, Shin B, Cho S, Choi EJ, et al., Orbit determination of KOMPSAT-1 and Cryosat-2 satellites using optical wide-field patrol network (OWL-Net) data with batch least squares filter, J. Astron. Space Sci. 34, 19-30 (2017). https://doi.org/10.5140/JASS.2017.34.1.19
  25. Lips T, Equivalent re-entry Breakup Altitude and Fragment list, Proceedings of the 6th European Conference on Space Debris, Darmstadt, Germany, 22-25 Apr 2013.
  26. Lips T, Frische B, A comparison of commonly used re-entry analysis tools, Acta Astronaut. 57, 312-323 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2005.03.010
  27. Lips T, Fitsche B, Koppenwallner G, Klinkrad H, Spacecraft destruction during re-entry - latest results and development of the SCARAB software system, Adv. Space Res. 34, 1055-1060 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2003.01.012
  28. Lips T, Wartemann V, Koppenwallner G, Klinkrad H, Alwes D, et al., Comparison of ORSAT and SCARAB reentry survival results, Proceedings of the 4th European Conference on Space Debris, Darmstadt, Germany, 18-20 April 2005.
  29. Matney M, Statistical issues for uncontrolled reentry hazards empirical test of the predicted footprint for uncontrolled reentry hazards, Proceedings of the 5th IAASS Conference A Safer Space for Safer World, Noordwijk, Netherlands, 17-19 Oct 2011.
  30. Minisci E, Space debris and asteroids (re)entry analysis methods and tools, [Internet], cited 2015, available from: http://www.mat.uniroma2.it/Astro/slides/SSTS/SSTSMinisci.pdf
  31. NASA, Process for Limiting Orbital Debris (Revision A with Change 1 of 5/25/2012), (NASA, 2012).
  32. NASA ODPO(Orbital Debris Program Office), Debris Assessment Software Version 2.0 User's Guid, (NASA JSC, 2012).
  33. NASA ODPO(Orbital Debris Program Office), Orbital Debris Quarterly News: Vol 21, Issue 1, Feb 2017 [Internet], cited 2017 Sep 07, available from: https://orbitaldebris.jsc.nasa.gov/quarterly-news/newsletter.html
  34. Pardini C, Anselmo L, Reentry predictions of three massive uncontrolled spacecraft, Proceedings of the 23rd International Symposium on Space Flight Dynamics, Pasadena, CA, 29 Oct - 2 Nov 2012.
  35. Pardini C, Anselmo L, Re-entry predictions for uncontrolled satellites: results and challenges, Proceedings of the 6th IAASS Conference, Noordwijk, Netherlands, 21-23 May 2013.
  36. Pardini C, Anselmo L, Reentry Predictions of Potentially Dangerous Uncontrolled Satellite: Challenges and Civil Protection Applications, Proceedings of the Stardust Final Conference on Atsteroids and Space Debris, ESA ESTEC, Noordwijk, Netherlands, 31 Oct - 3 Nov 2016a.
  37. Pardini C, Anselmo L, The Uncontrolled Reentry of Progress-M 27M, J. Space Saf. Eng. 3, 117-126 (2016b). https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-8967(17)30005-8
  38. Park M, Jo JH, Cho S, Choi J, Kim CH, et al. et al., Minimum number of observation points for LEO satellite orbit estimation by OWL network, J. Astron. Space Sci. 32, 357-366 (2015). https://doi.org/10.5140/JASS.2015.32.4.357
  39. Portelli C, Salotti L, Anselmo L, Lips T, Tramutola A, BeppoSAX equatorial uncontrolled re-entry, Adv. Space Res. 34, 1029-1037 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2003.11.011
  40. Rathgeber W, Europe's Way to Space Situational Awareness (SSA), ESPI Report 10 (2008a).
  41. Rathgeber W, Space Situational Awareness (SSA) for Europe: A First Important Step, ESPI Perspectives 16 (2008b).
  42. Spaceflight101, Progress M-27M meets its fiery End over the Pacific - Re-Entry Analysis [Internet], cited 2017 Sep 29, available from: http://www.spaceflight101.net/progress-m-27m-re-entry.html
  43. Space-Track Website [Internet], cited 2017 Sep 07, available from https://www.space-track.org/
  44. Tsujino T, Space situational awareness to mitigate disastrous risks from space, Sci. Technol. Trends Q. Rev. 45, 17-29 (2012).
  45. UNOOSA, UNA/AC.105/1150 [Internet], cited 2017 Sep 24, available from: http://www.unoosa.org/res/osoindex/data/documents/cn/a/aac_1051150_html/AC105_1150E.pdf
  46. Virgili BB, Flohrer T, Lemmens S, Krag H, GOCE re-entry campaign, in 5th International GOCE User Workshop, Paris, France, 25-28 Nov 2014.
  47. Wu Z, Hu R, Qu X, Wang X, Wu Zhe, Space debris reentry analysis methods and tools, Chin. J. Aeronaut. 24, 387-395 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1016/S1000-9361(11)60046-0