• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• v.34 no.4
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• pp.289-302
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• 2017

The key risk analysis technologies for the re-entry of space objects into Earth's atmosphere are divided into four categories: cataloguing and databases of the re-entry of space objects, lifetime and re-entry trajectory predictions, break-up models after re-entry and multiple debris distribution predictions, and ground impact probability models. In this study, we focused on reentry prediction, including orbital lifetime assessments, for space situational awareness systems. Re-entry predictions are very difficult and are affected by various sources of uncertainty. In particular, during uncontrolled re-entry, large spacecraft may break into several pieces of debris, and the surviving fragments can be a significant hazard for persons and properties on the ground. In recent years, specific methods and procedures have been developed to provide clear information for predicting and analyzing the re-entry of space objects and for ground-risk assessments. Representative tools include object reentry survival analysis tool (ORSAT) and debris assessment software (DAS) developed by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), spacecraft atmospheric re-entry and aerothermal break-up (SCARAB) and debris risk assessment and mitigation analysis (DRAMA) developed by European Space Agency (ESA), and semi-analytic tool for end of life analysis (STELA) developed by Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales (CNES). In this study, various surveys of existing re-entry space objects are reviewed, and an efficient re-entry prediction technique is suggested based on STELA, the life-cycle analysis tool for satellites, and DRAMA, a re-entry analysis tool. To verify the proposed method, the re-entry of the Tiangong-1 Space Lab, which is expected to re-enter Earth's atmosphere shortly, was simulated. Eventually, these results will provide a basis for space situational awareness risk analyses of the re-entry of space objects.

• International Journal of Aeronautical and Space Sciences
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.474-483
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• 2012

In this paper, a collision avoidance maneuver was sought for low Earth orbit (LEO) and geostationary Earth orbit (GEO) satellites maintained in a keeping area. A genetic algorithm was used to obtain both the maneuver start time and the delta-V to reduce the probability of collision with uncontrolled space objects or debris. Numerical simulations demonstrated the feasibility of the proposed algorithm for both LEO satellites and GEO satellites.

• Journal of Space Technology and Applications
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.23-32
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• 2021

The high-level Space Situational Awareness (SSA) objective is to provide to the users dependable, accurate and timely information in order to support risk management on orbit and during re-entry and support safe and secure operation of space assets and related services. Therefore the risk assessment for the re-entry of space objects should be managed nationally. In this research, the Software for Re-Entry Prediction of space objects (SREP) was developed for national SSA system. In particular, the rate of change of the drag coefficient is estimated through a newly proposed Drag Scale Factor Estimation (DSFE), and is used for high-precision orbit propagator (HPOP) up to an altitude of 100 km to predict the re-entry time and position of the space object. The effectiveness of this re-entry prediction is shown through the re-entry time window and ground track of space objects falling in real events, Grace-1, Grace-2, Tiangong-1, and Chang Zheng-5B Rocket body. As a result, through analysis 12 hours before the final re-entry time, it is shown that the re-entry time window and crash time can be accurately predicted with an error of less than 20 minutes.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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• v.44 no.4
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• pp.352-362
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• 2016

In this paper, a disposal maneuver which complies the space debris mitigation guideline was analysed for KOMPSAT-2 as an example of LEO satellite. Definition of disposal altitude which comply the '25 year rule', re-entry survivability analysis of KOMPSAT-2 parts inside and casualty area analysis were performed using STK and ESA's DRAMA. Finally, assuming that there were several survival objects during uncontrolled re-entry stage, the re-entry initial orbit elements which show the low casualty probability were found even if there were various uncertainties about the initial orbit. As a result, KOMPSAT-2 should be descended its altitude at least 43km or up to 105km to comply '25 year rule' and there were heavy or heat resistant survival objects which generated $4.3141m^2$ casualty area. And if RAAN of re-entry initial orbit was 129 degree, total casualty probability was lower than standard value of space debris mitigation guideline even if there were uncertainties about the initial orbit.