Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Regional frequency analysis using spatial data extension method : I. An empirical investigation of regional flood frequency analysis

공간확장자료를 이용한 지역빈도분석 : I. 지역홍수빈도분석의 실증적 검토

  • Kim, Nam Won (Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology) ;
  • Lee, Jeong Eun (Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology) ;
  • Lee, Jeongwoo (Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology) ;
  • Jung, Yong (Civil and Environmental Engineering, Wonkwang University)
  • 김남원 (한국건설기술연구원 수자원.하천연구소) ;
  • 이정은 (한국건설기술연구원 수자원.하천연구소) ;
  • 이정우 (한국건설기술연구원 수자원.하천연구소) ;
  • 정용 (원광대학교 토목환경공학과)
  • Received : 2016.03.11
  • Accepted : 2016.04.08
  • Published : 2016.05.31
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

For the design of infrastructures controlling the flood events at ungauged basins, this study tries to find the regional flood frequencies using peak flow data generated by the spatial extension of flood records. The Chungju Dam watershed is selected to validate the possibility of regional flood frequency analysis using the spatially extended flood data. Firstly, based on the index flood method, the flood event data from the spatial extension method is evaluated for 22 mid/smaller sub-basins at the Chungju Dam watershed. The homogeneity of the Chungju dam watershed was assessed in terms of the different size of watershed conditions such as accumulated and individual sub-basins. Based on the result of homogeneity analysis, this watershed is heterogeneous with respect to individual sub-basins because of the heterogeneity of rainfall distribution. To decide the regional probability distribution, goodness-of fit measure and weighted moving averages method from flood frequency analysis were adopted. Finally, GEV distribution was selected as a representative distribution and regional quantile were estimated. This research is one step further method to estimate regional flood frequency for ungauged basins.

본 연구에서는 미계측유역에서의 수공구조물의 설계를 위한 홍수량을 추론하는데 있어, 공간자료 확장기법에 의해 모의된 다지점의 첨두홍수량 자료를 이용한 지역홍수빈도분석의 가능성을 검토하였다. 충주댐 상류유역을 대상으로 지역홍수빈도분석의 표준방법인 지수홍수법을 중심으로 공간확장 자료의 활용에 대한 타당성을 입증하고, 대상유역 내 22개 지점의 확장자료를 이용하여 지역홍수빈도분석을 수행하였다. 지역의 동질성 가정을 구체적으로 검토하기 위해 수문학적 개념의 누가유역과 독립적인 자체유역으로 구분하여 분석을 시도하였다. 자체유역에 대한 지역의 동질성 분석결과는 이질지역으로 평가되었으며, 이러한 가장 큰 원인은 강우의 공간적인 불균등한 분포에서 기인한 것으로 분석되었다. 지역확률분포형을 선정하기 위해 적합성척도와 Floodfreq (Cost action ES0901)에서 제시한 가중이동평균(WMA) 방법으로 검토한 결과, 홍수빈도해석에 널리 이용되는 GEV 분포가 적정 확률분포형으로 채택되었으며, 그에 따른 유역의 무차원 성장곡선(분위수)을 제시하였다. 본 연구는 미계측유역에 대한 빈도홍수량 추정을 위해 지역홍수빈도분석을 중심으로 국내 관측자료의 한계를 극복하기 위한 시도이다.

Keywords

References

  1. Burnham, M.W. (1980). Adoption of Flood Flow Frequency Estimates at Ungaged Location, Training Document 11, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.
  2. Cordova, J.R. and Rodriquez-Iturbe, I. (1983). "Geomorphoclimatic estimation of extreme flow probabilities." Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 65, pp. 159-173. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(83)90215-9
  3. Dalrymple, T. (1960). Flood-Frequency Analyses, manual of hydrology, Part 3, Flood-flow Techniques, U.S. Geological Survey Water-Supply paper 1543-A.
  4. Dawdy, D.R., Griffis, V.W., and Gupta, V.K. (2012). "Regional Flood Frequency analysis : How We got here and where we are going." Jounal of hydrologic engineering, ASCE, Vol. 17. pp. 953-959. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000584
  5. Diaz-Granados, M.A., Valdes, J.B., and Bras, R.L. (1984). "A physically based flood frequency distribution." Water Resources Research, Vol. 20, No. 7, pp. 995-1002. https://doi.org/10.1029/WR020i007p00995
  6. Eagleson, P.S. (1972). "Dynamics of flood frequency." Water Resources Research, Vol. 8, No. 4, pp. 878-898. https://doi.org/10.1029/WR008i004p00878
  7. Eng, K., Tasker, G.D., and Milly, P.C.D. (2005). "An analysis of region of influence methods for flood regionalization in the Gulf-Atlantic rollong plains." Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA), Vol, 41, No. 1, pp. 135-143. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2005.tb03723.x
  8. Gupta, V.K., Troutman, B.M., and Dawdy, D.R. (2007). "Towards a nonlinear geophysical theory of floods in river networks : an overview of 20 years of progress." in Nonlinear dynamics in geosciences (pp.121-151), Springer New York.
  9. Hebson, C., and Wood, E.F. (1982). "A derived flood frequency distribution using Horton order ratios." Water Resources Research, Vol. 18, No. 5, pp. 1509-1518. https://doi.org/10.1029/WR018i005p01509
  10. Hosking, J.R.M. (1990). "L-moment: Analysis and estimation of distribution using linear combination of order statistics." Journal of Royal Statistical Society, Series B. 52, pp. 105-124.
  11. Hosking, J.R.M., and Wallis, J.R. (1997). Regional Frequency Analysis, An Approach Based on L-Moment, Cambridge University Press.
  12. Hosking, J.R.M., Wallis, J.R., and Wood, E.F. (1985). "Estimation of the Generalised Extreme Value distribution by the method of probability weighted moments, Technometrics, Vol. 27, No. 3, pp. 251-261. https://doi.org/10.1080/00401706.1985.10488049
  13. Hrachowitz, M., Savenije, H.H.G, Bloschl, G., Mcdonnell, J.J., et al. (2013). "A decade of Predictions in Ungauged Basins(PUP)- a riview." Hydrological Sciences Journal, Vol 58, No. 6, pp. 1198-1255. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.803183
  14. IE (1987). Australian Rainfall and Runoff: A Guide to Flood Estimation, Volume 1, Editor: D. H. Pilgrim, Institution of Engineers, Australia.
  15. Kim, N.W. (1998). Development of dynamic flood frequency model for estimation of probabilistic flood at ungaged location, Ph. D. dissertation,, Kangwon university.
  16. Kim, N.W., and Won, Y.S. (2004). "Estimates of regional flood frequency in Korea." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 37, No. 12, pp. 1019-1032. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2004.37.12.1019
  17. Kim, N.W., Jung, Y., and Lee, J.E. (2013). "Spatial extension of runoff data in the applications of a lumped concept model." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 46, No. 9, pp. 921-932. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2013.46.9.921
  18. Kim, N.W., Jung, Y., and Lee, J.E. (2014). "Simulation conditions based characteristics of spatial flood data extension." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 47, No. 6, pp. 501-511. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2014.47.6.501
  19. Kim, N.W., Lee, J.E., Lee, J., and Jung, Y. (2015). "Effect of Observed Discharge Data on Regional Flood Frequency Analysis in the Han River basin." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 48, No. 6, pp. 511-522. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2015.48.6.511
  20. Ko, J.U. (1977). "Regional flood frequency studies in Korean rivers." The Magazine of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers, Vol. 25, No. 4, pp. 95-102.
  21. Lamb, R. (1999). "Calibration of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model for flood frequency estimation by continuous simulation." Water Resources Research, Vol. 35, No. 10, pp. 3103-3114. https://doi.org/10.1029/1999WR900119
  22. MC (1993). Research on development of water resource management technology, Korea Institute of Construction Technology, Ministry of Construction, 1993.
  23. MCT (2004). Basic planning for river development and management and writing guide to river register, Ministry of Construction and Transportation.
  24. MCT (2007). Guideline for design flood estimation, Ministry of Construction and Transportation.
  25. MLTM (2010). History and future of hydrological survey in South Korea, Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs.
  26. MLTM (2011). Improvement and Supplement of Probability Rainfall in South Korea, Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs.
  27. Moriasi, D.N., Arnold, J.G., Van Liew, M.W., Bingner, R.L., et al. (2007). "Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations." American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers, Vol. 50, No. 3, pp. 885-900.
  28. Moughamian, M.S., McLaughlin, D.B., and Bras, R.L. (1987). "Estimation of flood frequency: an evaluation of two derived distribution procedures." Water Resources Research, Vol. 23, No. 7, pp. 1309-1319. https://doi.org/10.1029/WR023i007p01309
  29. Nash, J.E., and Sutcliffe J.V. (1970). "River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I-A discussion of principles." Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 10, No. 3, pp. 282-290. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(70)90255-6
  30. NERC (1975). Flood Studies Report, 5 Volumes, Natural Environment Research Council, London.
  31. Pilgrim, D.H. (Editor) (1987). Australian Rainfall and Runoff: A Guide to Flood Estimation, Volume 1, The Institution of Engineers, Australia.
  32. Raines, T.H., and Valdes, J.B. (1993). "Estimation of flood frequencies for ungauged catchments." Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, ASCE, Vol. 119, No. 10, pp. 1138-1154. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9429(1993)119:10(1138)
  33. SCS (1985). National Engineering Handbook, Section 4, Hydrology, Soil Conservation Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
  34. Stedinger, J.R., and Lu, L.H. (1995). "Appaisal of regional and index flood quantile estimators." Stochastic hydrology and hydraulics, Vol 9, pp 49-75. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01581758
  35. WMO (1989). Statistical Distributions for Flood Frequency Analysis, WMO-No. 718, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
  36. Yang, D.Y., and Ko, J.U. (1981). "The derivation of the frequency formulae from the basin characteristics." Journal of Korean Association of Hydrological Sciences, Vol. 14, No. 3, pp. 37-46.
  37. Yoon, T.H. (1973). "Regionalized flood frequency analysis." Korean society of civil engineers magazine, Vol. 21, No. 3, pp. 43-51.

Cited by

  1. Inference of natural flood frequency for the region affected by dams in Nam Han River vol.49, pp.7, 2016, https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2016.49.7.599
  2. Regional frequency analysis using spatial data extension method : II .Flood frequency inference for ungaged watersheds vol.49, pp.5, 2016, https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2016.49.5.451