• Title/Summary/Keyword: PLET

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Probabilistic Project Duration Estimation by Combination of PERT and PLET in High-Risk Project (고위험 사업에서 PERT와 PLET기법 결합에 의한 확률적 사업공기 추정)

  • Kim, Seon-Gyoo;Kim, Junyoung
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.71-80
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    • 2016
  • PERT(Project Evaluation and Review Technique) is typical method in order to probabilistically establish the schedule plan for large scale complex project or mega project. PERT technique is impossible to estimate relationship of each activity probabilistically when there are overlapping relationships because it is limited to Finish-to-Start(FS) relationship. In order to overcome this kind of limitation of PERT technique, PLET(Probabilistic Linkage Evaluation Technique) has been suggested to probabilistically estimate project duration for various overlapping relationships for each activity. However, estimating project duration by PLET technique only considers uncertainty of relationship between activities and not activity time, thus it is not the perfect duration estimating method. The main objective of this research is to propose the integration model of PERT and PLET and verify its probabilistic validity. By verifying application of time calculation method of integration model in practical case, this research will suggest probabilistic project duration estimating method in schedule plan of high-risk construction industry.

Estimation of Project Duration by Probabilistic Linkage Evaluation Technique (PLET) (확률적 연결관계 평가기법(PLET)에 의한 사업공기 추정)

  • Kim, Seon-Gyoo
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.44-52
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    • 2014
  • Generally, the most difficult works at scheduling are to estimate the duration of activities and linkages between them because the possibility that the duration and linkages could be exposed to the uncertainties is so high. When estimating a project duration, therefore, the probabilistic estimation of the duration as well as the probabilistic estimation of the linkages between activities should be considered concurrently. The PERT that is one of the most popular techniques applied for the probabilistic estimation of a project duration can not consider the uncertainties of the linkages because it only estimates the probabilistic duration limited to 'FS0' relationship. The purpose of this study is to propose the new method "PLET" for stochastically estimating the project duration based on the probabilistic estimation of the BDM's relationships, and also provide more wide and various probabilsitic information about the project duration by it.