Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater (상하수도학회지)

The Korean Society of Water and Wastewater (대한상하수도학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Estimation of Annual Minimal Probable Precipitation Under Climate Change in Major Cities

기후변화에 따른 주요 도시의 연간 최소 확률강우량 추정

  • Received : 2015.11.23
  • Accepted : 2016.01.18
  • Published : 2016.02.28
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

On account of the increase in water demand and climate change, droughts are in great concern for water resources planning and management. In this study, rainfall characteristics with stationary and non-stationary perspectives were analyzed using Weibull distribution model with 40-year records of annual minimum rainfall depth collected in major cities of Korea. As a result, the non-stationary minimum probable rainfall was expected to decrease, compared with the stationary probable rainfall. The reliability of ${\xi}_1$, a variable reflecting the decrease of the minimum rainfall depth due to climate change, in Wonju, Daegu, and Busan was over 90%, indicating the probability that the minimal rainfall depths in those city decrease is high.

Keywords

References

  1. American Meterological Society (2004). Statement on meteorological drought, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 85, 771-773.
  2. Byeon, S., Choi, G., Kim, J., Koo, B., and Kim, S. (2009). The study on characteristics and causes of drought in water deficit zone, Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association. May, 2009.
  3. Coles, G.S. (2001). An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values. Springer.
  4. Edwards, D.C. and McKee, T.B. (1997). Characteristics of 20th Century Drought in the United States at Multiple Scales, Atmospheric Science Paper No. 634, May 1-30.
  5. Gumbel, E.J. (1963). Statistical forecast of droughts. Bull. Int. Assoc. Sci. Hydrol. 8(1), 5-23.
  6. Kim, Y. (2013). Policy on Adaptation to Climate Change According to Drought Types, Working Paper of Korea Environment Institute.
  7. K-Water (2005). Establishing Monitoring System for Drought Management. Report.
  8. K-Water (2006), Establishing Information System for Drought Management. Report.
  9. K-Water (2007). Report on Test Operation of Information System for Drought Management. Report.
  10. Korea Meteorological Administration (2011). Report on Climate Change Scenarios 2011.
  11. Korea Meteorological Administration (2012). Current Status and Prospects of Recent Drought, Press Material.
  12. Lee, J. (2012) A Study of the Application of an Agricultural Drought Index Considering Climate Change, Working Paper of Korea Environment Institute.
  13. Lee, J. and Kim, C. (2011). Review of recent studies on extreme drought considering climate change, Special Issue on Impact and Prospects on Hydrological Impact Under Climate Change, Water & Future, 36-40.
  14. Lehner, B., Doll, P., Alcamo, J., Henrichs, T., and Kaspar, F. (2006). Estimating the impact of global change on flood and drought risks in Europe: a continental, integrated analysis. Climatic Change, 75(3), 273- 299. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-6338-4
  15. Linsely, Jr., R.K., Kohler, M.A., and Paulhus, J.L.H. (1959). Applied Hydrology, McGraw Hill, New York.
  16. Lloyd-Hughes, B. and Saunders, M.A. (2002). A drought climatology for Europe, Int. J. Climatol., 22, 1571-1592. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.846
  17. Madsen, H., Mikkelsen, P.S., and Rosbjerg, D., and Harremoes, P. (1998). Estimation of regional intensity-durationfrequency curves for extreme precipitation, Water Sci. Technol., 37(11), 29-36. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0273-1223(98)00313-8
  18. McKee, T.B., Doesken, N.J., and Kleist, J. (1993). The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales, Paper Presented at 8th Conference on Applied Climatology. American Meteorological Society, Anaheim, CA.
  19. Mishra, A.K. and Singh, V.P. (2009). Analysis of drought severity-area frequency curves using a general circulation model and scenario uncertainty. Journal of Geophysical Research, D06120.
  20. Mishra, A.K. and Singh, V.P. (2010). A review of drought concepts. Journal of Hydrology, 391, 202-216. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.012
  21. Palmer, W.C. (1965). Meterologic Drought. US Department of Commerce, Weather Bureau, Research Paper No. 45, 58.
  22. Palmer, W.C. (1968). Keeping the track of crop moisture conditions, nationwide: the new crop moisture index, Weatherwise, 21, 156-161. https://doi.org/10.1080/00431672.1968.9932814
  23. Park, K., Yu, S., Byambadorj, E.(to be published). Prediction of Return Periods of Sewer Flooding Due to Climate Change in Major Cities.
  24. Todorovic, P. and Woolhiser, D.A. (1976). Stochastic structure of the local pattern of precipitation. In: Shen, H.W. (Ed.), Stochastic Approaches to Water Resources, Vol. 2, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO.
  25. UN Secritariat General (1994). United Nations Convention to Combat Drought and Desertification in Countries Experiencing Serious Droughts and/or Desertification, Particularly in Africa. Paris.
  26. van Roy, M.P. (1965). A rainfall anomaly index independent of time and space., Notos, 14, 43.
  27. Wilhite, D.A. (2000). Drought as a natural hazard: concepts and definitions. In: Wilhite, D.A. (Ed.), Drought: A Global Assessment. Routledge, New York.
  28. Wilhite, D.A. and Glantz, M.H. (1987). Understanding the drought phenomena: the role of definitions. In: Donald, A., Wilhite, Easterling William, E., Deobarah, A., (Eds.), Planning of Drought: Towards a Redu ction of Societal Vulnerability, Westview Press, Wood, Boulder, CO, 11-27.
  29. World Meterological Organization (1986). Report on Drought and Countries Affected by Drought During 1974-1985, WMO, Geneva, 118.
  30. Wu, H., Svoboda, M.D.l, Hayes, M.J., Wilhite, D.A., and Wen, F. (2007). Appropriate application of the standardized precipitation index in and locations and dry seasons, Int. J. Climatol., 27, 65-79. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1371
  31. Yevjech, V. (1967). An Objective Approach to Definitions and Investigations of Continental Hydrologic Drought, Hydrology Paper No. 23. Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, Colorado, USA.