Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater (상하수도학회지)

The Korean Society of Water and Wastewater (대한상하수도학회)
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A Study on the Development and Applicative Estimation of Safety Evaluation Model for Water Supply Pipelines using Quantification Theory Type II

수량화II류이론을 활용한 상수도관로의 안전성 평가 모델 개발 및 적용성 평가 연구

  • Kim, Kibum (Department of Environmental Engineering, University of Seoul) ;
  • Shin, Hwisu (Department of Environmental Engineering, University of Seoul) ;
  • Seo, Jeewon (Department of Environmental Engineering, University of Seoul) ;
  • Koo, Jayong (Department of Environmental Engineering, University of Seoul)
  • 김기범 (서울시립대학교 환경공학과) ;
  • 신휘수 (서울시립대학교 환경공학과) ;
  • 서지원 (서울시립대학교 환경공학과) ;
  • 구자용 (서울시립대학교 환경공학과)
  • Received : 2016.01.13
  • Accepted : 2016.01.25
  • Published : 2016.02.28
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Abstract

Owing to time and cost constraints, new methods that would make it possible to evaluate the safety of the water supply pipeline in a less time- and cost-consuming manner are urgently needed. In response to this exigency, the present study developed a new statistical model to assess the safety of the water supply pipeline using the quantification theory type II. In this research, the safety of the water supply pipeline was defined as 'a possibility of the pipeline failure'. Quantification analysis was conducted on the qualitative data, such as pipe material, coating, and buried condition. The results of analyses demonstrate that the hit ratio of the quantification function amounted to 77.8% of hit ratio, which was a fair value. In addition, all variables that were included in the quantification function were logically valid and demonstrated statistically significant. According to the results derived from the application of the safety evaluation model, the coefficient of determination ($R^2$) between K-region's water supply pipeline safety and the safety inspection amounted to 0.80. Therefore, these findings provide meaningful insight for the measured values in real applications of the model. The results of the present study can also be meaningfully used in further research on safety evaluation of pipelines, establishing of renewal prioritization, as well as asset management planning of the water supply infrastructure.

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