한국ITS학회 논문지 (The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems)

  • 제14권6호
  • /
  • Pages.91-99
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  • 2015
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  • 1738-0774(pISSN)
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  • 2384-1729(eISSN)
한국ITS학회 (The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems)
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확률모수를 이용한 교통사고예측모형 개발 -수도권 및 부산광역시 4지 교차로를 대상으로-

A Development of Traffic Accident Model by Random Parameter : Focus on Capital Area and Busan 4-legs Signalized Intersections

  • 투고 : 2015.12.01
  • 심사 : 2015.12.14
  • 발행 : 2015.12.31
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초록

본 연구는 서울, 수도권 및 부산광역시의 4지 신호교차로를 대상으로 도로의 기하구조측면, 교통특성, 환경특성 등 다양한 요인을 고려하여 교통사고예측모형을 구축하고 교차로사고와의 상호관계를 규명하고자 하였다. 분석 결과 기존의 음이항 모형보다 확률적 음이항 모형의 설명력이 높게 나타났으며 총 52개의 변수 중 10개의 변수가(주도로의 차로 수, 주도로의 좌회전 교통량, 주도로의 주행제약시설 수, 부도로의 우회전 교통량, 부도로의 교차로 시거, 교차로의 총 현시, 부도로의 중앙분리대 유무, 부도로의 제한속도, 부도로의 교통섬 유무, 부도로의 속도제약시설 수) 도시부 4지 신호교차로에서 교통사고에 영향을 미치는 유의한 변수로 나타났다. 또한 10개의 유의한 변수 중 2개의 변수가(부도로의 교차로 시거, 부도로의 차량 주행속도 제약 시설물 수)가 확률적 변수로 나타났다.

This study intends to build a traffic accident predictive model considering road geometrics, traffic and enviromental characteristics and identify the relationship of 4-legs intersection accidents in Seoul and Busan metropolitan area. The RPNB(Random Parameter Negative Binomial) model shows improvement over the fixed NB(Negative Binomial) and out of 53 variables, 10 variables (main road number of lane, main road vehicle traffic volume(left), minor road vehicle traffic volume(right), main road drive restriction, minor road sight distance, minor road median strip, minor road speed limit, minor road speed restriction) showed to have significant variables affecting traffic accident occurrences in 4-legs signilized intersections. Also, among 10 significant variables, 2 variables(minor road sight distance, minor road speed restriction) found to be random parameters.

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참고문헌

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피인용 문헌

  1. A Development of Traffic Accident Prediction Model at Rural Unsignalized Intersections Using Random Parameter vol.16, pp.4, 2017, https://doi.org/10.12815/kits.2017.16.4.64
  2. Factors Associated with Freeway Accident Occurrence Involving Commercial Vehicles Using Dangerous Driving Behaviors and Random Parameters vol.22, pp.4, 2015, https://doi.org/10.7855/ijhe.2020.22.4.077