한국재난정보학회 논문집 (Journal of the Society of Disaster Information)

  • 제11권4호
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  • Pages.493-505
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  • 2015
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  • 1976-2208(pISSN)
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  • 2671-5287(eISSN)
한국재난정보학회 (The Korean Society of Disaster Information)
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상륙 태풍에 의한 마산만 폭풍해일 변동성 분석 - 1. 극치 모의 태풍 시나리오의 결정

Variation Analysis of Storm Surges in Masan Bay due to Typhoon Landing-1. Extreme Simulation Typhoon Scenario

  • Han, Sungdae (Department of Civil Engineering, University of Kyungnam)
  • 투고 : 2015.10.28
  • 심사 : 2015.12.28
  • 발행 : 2015.12.31
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초록

남해안에 상륙한 태풍 자료를 기초로 하여 분석한 결과, 태풍 이동방향의 분포는 Beta 확률밀도함수를 따르며, 태풍 눈에서의 기압저하는 Rayleigh 확률밀도함수를 따르는 것으로 판단되었다. 이를 바탕으로 6개 상륙 지점에 따라 가장 확률적으로 높은 태풍의 진로와 기압저하에 따른 태풍 매미급의 극치 태풍 모의 시나리오를 결정하였다. 모의된 태풍의 상륙지점에 따른 마산만에서의 폭풍해일 변동성이 후속 연구에서 수치 모의될 것이다.

Based on the typhoon paths landed on the southern coast of Korea, the distribution of typhoon moving directions follow the Beta probability density function and that of pressure drops in typhoon eyes follow the Rayleigh probability density function. Consequently, the extreme typhoon simulation scenarios for six landing positions are determined as most probable one in moving direction and extreme one of Typhoon Maemi level in pressure drop. The variation of storm surges in Masan bay associated with simulated typhoon landing position is analyzed through the numerical experiments in the next paper as the second part.

키워드

참고문헌

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