자원ㆍ환경경제연구 (Environmental and Resource Economics Review)

한국자원경제학회 (Korean Resource Economics Association)
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주요 원유 현물가격간의 비선형 동적조정에 관한 연구

A Study on Nonlinear Dynamic Adjustment of Spot Prices of Major Crude Oils

  • 박해선 (건국대학교 경영경제학부) ;
  • 이상직 (한국외국어대학교 경제학부)
  • Park, Haesun (School of Business Administration and Economics, Konkuk University) ;
  • Lee, Sangjik (Division of Economics, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies)
  • 투고 : 2015.08.24
  • 심사 : 2015.12.04
  • 발행 : 2015.12.31
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초록

본 연구는 3가지 상태 threshold 벡터오차수정모형(three-regime threshold vector error correction model)을 활용하여 WTI, Brent, Dubai 등 세계 3대 마커(marker)원유의 현물 유가 간 비선형 동적조정 과정에 대해 분석하였다. 이를 위하여 2000년 1월 3일부터 2014년 12월 31일까지의 일별가격을 이용하였으며 WTI가 급격히 하락하기 시작한 2010년을 기준으로 전기와 후기로 구분하여 WTI-Brent와 WTI-Dubai 그리고 Brent-Dubai의 세 조합에 대해 실증분석하였다. 전기에는 세 조합 모두 양 시장 간 비선형적 동적조정이 이루어지고 있으나, 후기에서는 WTI-Brent를 제외한 WTI-Dubai 조합과 Brent-Dubai 조합에서만 비선형적 동적조정과정이 이루어지고 있는 것이 관찰되었다. 또한 WTI-Dubai 조합과 Brent-Dubai 조합에 대해 전기와 후기의 거래비용 추정결과를 보면 후기에서 시장 간의 거래비용이 전기에 비해 축소되었음을 확인하였다.

We employ a 3 regime-threshold vector error correction models (TVECM) to investigate the nonlinear dynamic adjustments of three marker crude oil prices such as WTI (West Texas Intermediate), Brent and Dubai. Especially we deal with 3 combinations of oil prices including WTI-Brent, WTI-Dubai and Brent-Dubai in order to analyze the dynamic adjustments of the prices based on the effects of the price spreads among these crude oil prices. Our daily spot prices data run from 2001.1.3 to 2014.12.31. We found that each combination is cointegrated over the period. WTI had dropped significantly in 2010 which had affected the movements of the spreads. To accomodate this fact, we divide the period into two sub-periods: 2000.1.3-2009.12.31 and 2010.1.1-2014.12.31. It is found that each combination is cointegrated in both sub-periods. Moroever, in the first sub-period, all three oil prices are shown to follow nonlinear dynamic adjustments. In the second sub-period, however, TVECM is better than VECM(vector error correction model) for WTI-Dubai and Brent-Dubai while VECM performs better for WTI-Brent. The transaction costs are estimated to be reduced for the second sub-period for WTI-Dubai and Brent-Dubai compared to the first sub-period.

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참고문헌

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