• Title/Summary/Keyword: TVECM

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A Study on Nonlinear Dynamic Adjustment of Gasoline Prices in Korea (우리나라 휘발유 가격의 비선형 동적 조정에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Haesun;Lee, Sangjik
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.393-410
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    • 2013
  • We employ a threshold vector error correction models (TVECM) to investigate the nonlinear dynamic adjustment of gasoline prices in Korea. We consider 10 regional gasoline markets including Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Incheon, Kwangju, Daejeon, Ulsan, Kangwon, Chungbuk, Jeonbuk and construct 9 price differences against Seoul. We use the bootstrap procedure suggested by Hansen (1999) and generalized by Lo and Zivot (2001) to show that three-regime TVECM is suitable for our analysis. Results indicate the gasoline price adjustment processes are nonlinear. Our estimation shows that Seoul-Daejeon, Seoul-Daegu and Seoul-Ulsan have bigger transaction costs than other market pairs and thus gasoline prices of these three regional markets are lower than that of Seoul. Gasoline prices of the other 6 regional markets are close to Seoul's price. One interesting finding is that the transaction costs are not proportional to geographical distances. This implies that transportation costs are not the main factor of the transaction costs. The transaction costs may depends on the competition intensity of gasoline markets in supply side.

A Study on Nonlinear Dynamic Adjustment of Spot Prices of Major Crude Oils (주요 원유 현물가격간의 비선형 동적조정에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Haesun;Lee, Sangjik
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.657-677
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    • 2015
  • We employ a 3 regime-threshold vector error correction models (TVECM) to investigate the nonlinear dynamic adjustments of three marker crude oil prices such as WTI (West Texas Intermediate), Brent and Dubai. Especially we deal with 3 combinations of oil prices including WTI-Brent, WTI-Dubai and Brent-Dubai in order to analyze the dynamic adjustments of the prices based on the effects of the price spreads among these crude oil prices. Our daily spot prices data run from 2001.1.3 to 2014.12.31. We found that each combination is cointegrated over the period. WTI had dropped significantly in 2010 which had affected the movements of the spreads. To accomodate this fact, we divide the period into two sub-periods: 2000.1.3-2009.12.31 and 2010.1.1-2014.12.31. It is found that each combination is cointegrated in both sub-periods. Moroever, in the first sub-period, all three oil prices are shown to follow nonlinear dynamic adjustments. In the second sub-period, however, TVECM is better than VECM(vector error correction model) for WTI-Dubai and Brent-Dubai while VECM performs better for WTI-Brent. The transaction costs are estimated to be reduced for the second sub-period for WTI-Dubai and Brent-Dubai compared to the first sub-period.