Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management (한국건설관리학회논문집)

Korea Institute of Construction Engineering and Management (한국건설관리학회)
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Analysis and Quantitative Estimation of Risk Factors of Design-Build

턴키 프로젝트에서 리스크요인 분석 및 정량적 평가

  • Received : 2012.01.18
  • Accepted : 2012.07.13
  • Published : 2012.09.30
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Abstract

The Risks in undertaking a construction project comes from many sources and often involves many participants in the project. This study has identified various kinds of risks, assessed the risk factors quantitatively and suggested risk management method for response pertinent in Design Build(Turn Key)type of projects in Korean context. A questionnaire was designed comprising of 145 possible risks in all types of construction projects. The population from owner, consultant and contractor groups was asked to indicate the risks applicable in DB projects. 25 numbers of critical risks in DB projects were identified and further analyzed for reveling inherent relationship between them through factor analysis. Factor analysis revealed 8 risk factors in DB projects. Construction site related, contract related and design related risk factor consisted about 72% of total risk weight. It has been found out about 6%, while considering the mutual dependency, it is about 10% of total cost of DB project. Therefore, It is suggested that 6% to 10% of construction amount as contingency has to be made provision for risk responses in the DB projects.

턴키계약방식(Design Build)은 설계시공 일괄계약방식으로 책임 한계가 보다 광범위하게 적용되어 프로젝트 수행 초기 설계 단계부터 설계비 부담 증가 등 일반 분리발주공사 보다 리스크 발생율이 높은 실정이다. 따라서 이번 연구에서는 턴키계약프로젝트에서 리스크요인의 분석 및 정량적 평가 방안을 연구하였다. 이 번 연구는 프로젝트참여자로부터 수집한 설문조사자료를 이용하여 통계분석을 수행한 결과 총145개의 리스크변수중 전체 참여자 그룹이 동의하는 DB프로젝트에서의 리스크변수는 25개로 나타났다. 요인분석을 통하여 이를 8가지 리스크요인으로 함축할 수 있었으며 이중 3가지 요인인 건설현장관련, 계약관련 및 설계관련 리스크요인이 72%의 가중치를 나타내었다. 리스크변수 및 리스크요인에 따른 가중치와 결합확률을 이용하여 리스크요인에 기인한 추정손실의 크기를 전체공사비에 대한 백분율로 추정한 결과 약 6%로 나타났고, 리스크 요인상호영향을 고려하면 약 10%를 나타나 리스크대응을 위하여 전체공사비의 약 6%~10%의 예비비를 계상할 필요가 있는 것으로 나타났다.

Keywords

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