Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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Assessment of Drought Severity over South Korea using Standardized Precipitation Evapo-transpiration Index (SPEI)

표준강수 증발산지수(SPEI)를 이용한 남한지역의 가뭄심도 평가

  • Kim, Byung-Sik (Kangwon National University, Department of Urban & Environmental Disaster Prevention, School of Disaster Prevention) ;
  • Sung, Jang-Hyun (Yeongsan River Flood Control Office, Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs) ;
  • Kang, Hyun-Suk (National Institute of Meteorological Research, Korea Meteorological Administration (NIMR/KMA)) ;
  • Cho, Chun-Ho (National Institute of Meteorological Research, Korea Meteorological Administration (NIMR/KMA))
  • 김병식 (국립강원대학교 방재전문대학원 도시환경방재전공) ;
  • 성장현 (국토해양부 영산강홍수통제소 예보동제과) ;
  • 강현석 (국립기상연구소 기후연구과) ;
  • 조천호 (국립기상연구소 기후연구과)
  • Received : 2012.05.22
  • Accepted : 2012.06.14
  • Published : 2012.09.30
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Abstract

Drought is a non-negligible disaster of nature and it is mainly caused by rainfall shortage for a long time though there are many definitions of drought. 'Standard Precipitation Index' (SPI) that is widely used to express the level of meteorological drought intensity has a limit of not being able to consider the hydrological changes such as rainfall and evapotranspiration caused by climate change, because it does not consider the temperature-related variables other than the precipitation. Recently, however, 'Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index' (SPEI), a drought index of new concept which is similar to SPI but can reflect the effect of temperature variability as well as the rainfall change caused by climate variation, was developed. In this study, the changes of drought occurrence in South Korea were analyzed by applying SPEI for meteorological data (1973~2011) of 60 climate observatories under Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). As the result of application, both of SPI and SPEI showed the trend of deepening drought in spring and winter and mitigating drought in summer for the entire nation, with SPI showing greater drought intensity than SPI. Also, SPI and SPEI with 12 months of duration showed that severe droughts with low frequency of around 6 years are generally being repeated.

가뭄은 자연의 무시할 수 없는 재해이며, 비록 가뭄의 정의가 많이 있지만 가뭄은 장기간의 강우의 부족으로부터 기인한다. 기상학적 가뭄심도의 정도를 표현하기 위해 널리 이용되는 표준강수지수(Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI)는 강수 이외의 기온과 관련된 변수를 고려하지 않기 때문에 기후변동으로 인한 강수, 증발산 등의 물수지 변화를 고려할 수 없다는 한계점이 있다. 그러나 최근에 SPI와 유사하지만 기후변동으로 인한 강수 변화 뿐만 아니라 기온의 변동성이 미치는 영향을 반영할 수 있는 새로운 개념의 가뭄지수인 표준강수증발산지수(Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI)가 개발되었다. 본 연구에서는 기상청 산하의 60개 기상관측소의 1973~2011년까지 기상자료를 대상으로 SPEI를 적용하여 남한지역의 가뭄발생의 변화를 평가하였다. 적용결과, 전국적으로 SPI와 SPEI 모두 봄과 겨울에 가뭄이 심화되고 여름철에는 가뭄이 완화되는 경향을 보였으며, SPEI는 SPI보다 가뭄심도를 크게 나타내었다. 또한, 지속기간 12개월의 SPI와 SPEI는 전반적으로 6년 내외의 저빈도 주기성을 갖는 극심한 가뭄이 반복되고 있음을 보였다.

Keywords

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