DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Estimating the Total Precipitation Amount with Simulated Precipitation for Ungauged Stations in Jeju Island

미계측 관측 강수 자료 생성을 통한 제주도 지역의 수문총량 추정

  • Received : 2012.05.25
  • Accepted : 2012.06.14
  • Published : 2012.09.30

Abstract

In this study, the total precipitation amount in Jeju Island was estimated with the simulated precipitation for ungauged stations missing precipitation data using the spatial precipitation analysis. The missing data were generated through the modified multiple linear regression in this study, and the analysis of spatial precipitation was conducted with the PRISM(Parameter-elevation Regression on Independent Slope Model). The generated data with modified multiple linear regression model have similar pattern with original data. Thus, the model in this study shows good applicability to estimate the missing data. The difference of annual average precipitation between Case 1 (original data) and Case 2 (modified data) appears very small ratio which is about 1.5%. However, the difference of annual average precipitation according to elevation shows the large ratio up to 37.4%. As the results, the method of estimating missing data in this study would be useful to calculate the total precipitation amount at the low station density area and the places with the high spatial variation of precipitation.

본 연구에서는 미계측 강수자료를 생성하여 공간 해석함으로써 제주도의 정확한 수문총량을 산정하였다. 미계측 강수자료는 본 연구에서 제시된 수정된 다중회귀선형 모형으로 생성하였으며 공간강수량은 PRISM을 적용하여 구하였다. 수정된 다중선형회귀 모형에 의한 미계측 강수자료의 추정 값들은 기존의 강수 패턴과 유사한 양상을 나타내어 모형의 정확도가 우수한 것으로 나타났으며, 공간강수량의 해석결과는 Case 1(원자료)과 Case 2(미계측 강수자료를 보완한 자료)의 연평균 강수량이 약 1.5%의 미미한 차이를나타내었으나 고도별 연평균 강수량 차이는 최대 37.4%가 증가하는 것으로 산정되었다. 따라서 본 연구에서 제안한 미계측 관측 자료 생성방법은 현재 관측소의 밀도가 낮은 곳과 국지적으로 강수량의 변화가 큰 곳에서의 수문총량의 산정시 유용할 것으로 판단된다.

Keywords

References

  1. 신성철, 김맹기, 서명석, 나득균, 장동호, 김찬수, 이우섭, 김연희 (2008). "GIS와 PRISM을 이용한 고해상도 격자형 강수량 추정." 한국기상학회논문집, 한국기상학회, 제18권, 제1호, pp. 71-81.
  2. 엄명진, 정창삼 (2011). "강원도 지역의 PRISM를 이용한 강우의 공간분포 해석." 한국수자원학회논문집, 한국수자원학회, 제44권, 제3호, pp. 179-188. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2011.44.3.179
  3. 오재우, 박진혁, 김영국 (2008). "신경망을 이용한 결측 수문자료 추정 및 실시간 자료 보정." 한국수자원학회논문집, 한국수자원학회, 제41권, 제10호, pp. 1059-1065. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2008.41.10.1059
  4. 유주환 (2010). "미계측 결측 강수자료 보완을 위한 선형 계획법의 검정." 한국수자원학회논문집, 한국수자원학회, 제43권, 제3호, pp. 257-264.
  5. 윤혜선, 엄명진, 조원철, 허준행 (2009). "지역빈도해석 및 다중회귀분석을 이용한 산악형 강수해석." 한국수자원학회논문집, 한국수자원학회, 제42권, 제6호, pp. 465-480. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2009.42.6.465
  6. 한국건설기술연구원 (1990). 추계학적 방법에 의한 수문자료 확충모형 개발.
  7. Chow, V.T., Maidment, D.R., and Mays, L.W. (1988). Applied Hydrology, Mc Graw Hill Book Company, ISBN 0-07-010810-2.
  8. Daly, C., Neilson, R.P., and Phillips, D.L. (1994). "A statistical-topographic model for mapping climatological precipitation over mountainous terrain." Journal of Applied Meteorology, Vol. 33, No. 2, pp. 140-158. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1994)033<0140:ASTMFM>2.0.CO;2
  9. Daly, C., Gibson, W., Taylor, G., Johnson, G., and Pasteris, P. (2002). "A knowledge-based approach to the statistical mapping of climate." Climate Research, Vol. 22, pp. 99-113. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr022099
  10. Firat, M., Dikbas, F., Koc, A.C., and Gungor, M. (2010). "Missing data analysis and homogeneity test for Turkish precipitation series." Sadhana, Vol. 35, Part 6, pp. 707-720. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12046-010-0051-8
  11. Lam, N.S. (1983). "Spatial Interpolation Methods review." The American Cartographer, Vol. 10, pp. 129-149. https://doi.org/10.1559/152304083783914958
  12. Myers, R.H. (1990). Classical and Modern Regression with Application, 2nd Edition. PWS-KENT, Boston.
  13. Silva, R.P.D., Dayawansa, N.D.K., and Ratnasiri, M.D. (2007). "A comparison of methods used in estimating missing rainfall data." Journal of Agricultural Sciences, Vol. 3, No. 2, pp. 101-108. https://doi.org/10.4038/jas.v3i2.8107
  14. Simolo, C., Brunetti, M., Maugeri, M., and Nanni, T. (2010). "Improving estimation of missing values in daily precipitation series by a probability density function-preserving approach." International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 30, pp. 1564-1576.
  15. Singh, V.P. (1994). Elementary Hydrology. Prentice Hall of India: New Delhi.
  16. Tabios, G.Q. III and Salas, J.D. (1985). "A comparative analysis of techniques for spatial interpolation of precipitation." Water Resources Bulletin, Vol. 21, No. 3, pp. 365-380. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1985.tb00147.x
  17. Teegavarapu, R.S.V. (2009). "Estimation of missing precipitation records integrating surface interpolation techniques and spatio-temporal association rules." Journal of Hydroinformatics, Vol. 11, No. 2, pp. 133-146. https://doi.org/10.2166/hydro.2009.009
  18. Wikipedia (2012). "Stepwise regression." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stepwise_regression, online access May 20, 2012.

Cited by

  1. Simulation of Groundwater Variation Characteristics of Hancheon Watershed in Jeju Island using Integrated Hydrologic Modeling vol.22, pp.5, 2013, https://doi.org/10.5322/JESI.2013.22.5.515
  2. Spatio-temporal variations of precipitation considering the orographic effects on Jeju Island vol.181, 2016, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.07.007
  3. A Method of Simulating Ephemeral Stream Runoff Characteristics in Cheonmi-cheon Watershed, Jeju Island vol.22, pp.5, 2013, https://doi.org/10.5322/JESI.2013.22.5.523
  4. Empirical Formula of Delay Time for Groundwater Recharge in the Representative Watersheds, Jeju Island vol.47, pp.9, 2014, https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2014.47.9.743
  5. Analysis of Modified Distance-and-Elevation Ratio Method with Different Exponents of Distance and Elevation vol.48, pp.5, 2015, https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2015.48.5.357
  6. Assessment of Actual Evapotranspiration in the Hancheon Watershed, Jeju Island vol.22, pp.5, 2013, https://doi.org/10.5322/JESI.2013.22.5.533
  7. Delay Time Estimation of Recharge in the Hancheon Watershed, Jeju Island vol.23, pp.4, 2014, https://doi.org/10.5322/JESI.2014.4.605
  8. Altitudinal Pattern of Evapotranspiration and Water Need for Upland Crops in Jeju Island vol.48, pp.11, 2015, https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2015.48.11.915
  9. Evaluation and complementation of observed flow in the Hancheon watershed in Jeju Island using a physically-based watershed model vol.49, pp.11, 2016, https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2016.49.10.951
  10. Estimation of Probable Precipitation considering Altitude in the Jeju Islands vol.23, pp.4, 2014, https://doi.org/10.5322/JESI.2014.4.595