시스템사고로 본 건강도시화 정책이 지역주민의 걷기실천율에 미치는 영향 분석

Effect Analysis of Healthy City Policies on Residents' Walking

The purpose of this study is to estimate the effects of healthy city policies on residents' walking. In order to estimate promotion of walking rates by healthy cities policies, it developed System dynamics(SD)-based model which showed causal relationships among urban design, public health policies, and walking levels. SD technique is useful for future forecast and policy impact assessment. The spatial units of the SD-based system for policy impact assessment included 66 cities, counties, and communities in Seoul Metropolitan Area. The system simulation was planned to be run for 21 years from 2009 to 2030. For this study, 3 alternatives were proposed with combinations of length of bike lanes, number of bus routes, crime rates, self-reported good health status rates, and obesity rates. As a result of simulations, residents' participation rates for walking were increased from 1.00% to 9.98%. This study contributes to better understanding the benefits of healthy cities that are associated with individual walking. It further provided useful insights into planners' role in promoting health. The paper concluded with a discussion on future research opportunities and implications for public policies in urban and transportation and public health.