Comparison of Three Optimization Methods Using Korean Population Data

The purpose of this research is the examination of validity of data as well as simulation model, i.e. to simulate the real data in the SD model with the least error using the adjustments for the faithful reflection of real data to the simulation. In general, SD programs (e.g. VENSIM) utilize the Euler or Runge-Kutta method as an algorithm. It is possible to reflect the trend of real data via these two estimation methods however can cause the validity problem in case of the simulation requiring the accuracy as they have endogenous errors. In this article, the future population estimated by the Korea National Statistical Office (KNSO) to 2050 is simulated by the aging chain model, dividing the population into three cohorts, 0-14, 15-64, 65 and over cohorts by age and offering the adjustments to them. Adjustments are calculated by optimization with three different methods, optimization in EXCEL, manual optimization with iterative calculation, and optimization in VENSIM DSS, the results are compared, and at last the optimal adjustment set with the least error are found among them. The simulation results with the pre-determined optimal adjustment set are validated by methods proposed by Barlas (1996) and other alternative methods. It is concluded that the result of simulation model in this research has no significant difference from the real data and reflects the real trend faithfully.