Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods

  • 제18권4호
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  • Pages.495-505
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  • 2011
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  • 2287-7843(pISSN)
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  • 2383-4757(eISSN)
한국통계학회 (The Korean Statistical Society)
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장기모수의 구조변화와 안정성

Structural Change and Stability in a Long-Run Parameter

  • Kim, Tae-Ho (Department of Information Statistics, Chungbuk National University)
  • 투고 : 20110200
  • 심사 : 20110600
  • 발행 : 2011.07.31
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초록

본 연구에서는 표본의 일부를 단계적으로 증가시켜 가며 반복적으로 추정된 장기모수의 시간경로를 파악하는 방식으로 변수들 간 장기균형관계의 안정성에 대해 통계적으로 검정해 보았다. 안정성 귀무가설이 기각되는 구간에는 더미변수를 사용해 전체 연구기간에 걸쳐 안정성을 회복시키고 타당한 공적분관계를 도출해 보았으며, 오차수정항에 대한 분석결과는 더미변수가 공적분관계의 구조변화를 반영하는 것으로 나타났다.

This study performs statistical tests for stability of a long-run relationship in the telecommunication market system by identifying the time path of a recursively estimated cointegration parameter. A dummy variable is used to recover stability for the period that the hypothesis of stable cointegration is rejected, and then a proper cointegrating relation is derived. A dummy variable appears to reflect the structural change in the cointegrating relation according to the analytical results for the error correction term.

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참고문헌

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