• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.6 no.1
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• pp.47-63
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• 1977

인구가 성장한다는 사실과 함께 인구가 지역적으로 이동하는 현상은 사회과학에 있어서 중요한 연구대상이 되어왔다. 전통적으로 인구의 동학적 측면은 사회학의 주된 연구대상이 되어왔으며 근래에는 인구학(demography)이라는 새로운 독립과학의 분과로서 더욱 이 분야에서의 연구의 심도와 폭이 확대되었다. 그러나 인구의 동학적 측면을 인간의 경제형태의 일환으로 관찰할 수 있는 기회와 가능성이 점차적으로 크게 부각되자 전통적인 경제이론을 적용함으로써 이러한 문제를 분석/구명하고자 하는 동향이 나타나게 되었다. 특히 인구의 단기적 지역간 이동이 경제사회의 질적인 변화와 이에 따르는 산업구조간의 노동력 균형의 재조정에 따라 원인되고 있다는 사실은 인구의 동학적 측면에 경제학적 분석이 당연히 이루어져야 한다는 요구를 초래시키기에 이르렀다.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.36 no.3
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• pp.95-120
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• 2014

This paper attempts to demonstrate the critical role of expectation horizons in economic agents building their expectations for the future. It starts with the analysis of what constraints the economics-based assumption related to information efficiency could impose in the stochastic process, and then suggests a new concept, random revision of expectation, to refer to the case when the adjustment process of expected variables employs newly generated information only. According to the inflation dynamics formula drawn under this condition, the demand pressure measured by output gap is found to cause different impacts on inflation according to different expectation horizons. The empirical analysis of this model using the data on Korea reveals that a short expectation horizon causes coefficient estimates to become small and statistically less significant.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.495-505
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• 2011

This study performs statistical tests for stability of a long-run relationship in the telecommunication market system by identifying the time path of a recursively estimated cointegration parameter. A dummy variable is used to recover stability for the period that the hypothesis of stable cointegration is rejected, and then a proper cointegrating relation is derived. A dummy variable appears to reflect the structural change in the cointegrating relation according to the analytical results for the error correction term.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.32 no.3
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• pp.67-81
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• 2016

This paper examines the influence of Brexit on container volume of Korea, especially of macroeconomic variables such as exchange rate and industrial production of EU and United Kingdom. To do this, we use monthly time series data during 2000-2016, and introduce the analysis method of cointegration test and VECM, and analyze the influence of industrial production and exchange rate of EU and U.K. on container volume of Korea. The results are as follows. First, the container volume of Korea is influenced by the exchange rate and industrial production of EU in the long run. But the exchange and industrial production of U.K. influenced on only export container volume of Korea, and the influence of U.K. macroeconomic variables on container volume of Korea was not large in the long lun. Second, In the shot run, the influence of exchange rate on container volume of Korea, especially on export container volume was significant in EU and U.K. To sum up, the influence of EU macroeconomic variables on container volume of Korea is larger than that of U.K., and the influence of exchange rate variable is more significant than that of industrial production variable.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.22 no.6
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• pp.453-459
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• 2021

The system marginal price of electricity is the amount paid to all the generating units, which is an important decision-making factor for the construction and maintenance of an electrical power unit. In this paper, we suggest a long-term forecasting model for calculating the system marginal price based on prices of natural gas and oil. As most variables used in the analysis are nonstationary time series, the long run relationship among the variables should be examined by cointegration tests. The forecasting model is similar to an error correction model which consists of a long run cointegrating equation and another equation for short run dynamics. To mitigate the robustness issue arising from the relatively small data sample, this study employs various testing and estimating methods. Compared to previous studies, this paper considers multiple fuel prices in the forecasting model of system marginal price, and provides greater emphasis on the robustness of analysis. As none of the cointegrating relations associated with system marginal price, natural gas price and oil price are excluded, three error correction models are estimated. Considering the root mean squared error and mean absolute error, the model based on the cointegrating relation between system marginal price and natural gas price performs best in the out-of-sample forecast.

• Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.167-172
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• 2010

CANDU spent fuel is to be disposed of at repository finally rather than recycled because of its low fissile nuclide concentration. But the difficult situation of finding a repository site can not help introducing a interim storage in the short term. It is required to find an optimum timing of geological disposal of CANDU spent fuels related to the interim storage operation period. The major factors for determining the disposal starting time are considered as safety, economics, and public acceptance. Safety factor is compared in terms of the decay heat and non-proliferation. Economics factor is compared from the point of the operation cost, and public acceptance factor is reviewed from the point of retrievability and inter-generation ethics. This paper recommended the best solution for the disposal starting time by analyzing the above factors. It is concluded that the optimum timing for the CANDU spent fuel disposal is around 2041 and that the sooner disposal time, the better from the point of technical and safety aspects.