The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics (응용통계연구)

The Korean Statistical Society (한국통계학회)
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A Study on the Seasonal Effects of the Tourism Demand Forecasting Models

관광 수요 예측 모형의 계절효과에 대한 연구

  • Kim, Sahm (Department of Statistics, Chung-Ang University) ;
  • Lee, Ju-Hyoung (Department of Statistics, Chung-Ang University)
  • Received : 20101100
  • Accepted : 20101100
  • Published : 2011.02.28
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Abstract

In this paper, we compared the performance of the several time series models for tourism demand forecasting. We showed that seasonal effects in the data(Japan, China, USA, and Philippines) exist in the tourism data and the forecasting accuracies are compared by the RMSE criterion.

본 연구는 관광수요 예측 분야에서 사용되는 계절형 ARIMA 모형과 다변량 계절형 시계열 모형과 오차수정모형의 성능을 비교한 것이다. 본 연구에서는 일본, 중국, 미국, 필리핀에 대한 실제 자료를 이용한 결과 관광 수요에는 계절성이 중요한 역할을 하는 것을 보이고 각 국가별로 예측 정확도를 RMSE를 기준으로 하여 비교하였다.

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References

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