Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Assessment on Flood Characteristics Changes Using Multi-GCMs Climate Scenario

Multi-GCMs의 기후시나리오를 이용한 홍수특성변화 평가

  • Son, Kyung-Hwan (Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engrg., Sejong Univ.) ;
  • Lee, Byong-Ju (Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engrg., Sejong Univ.) ;
  • Bae, Deg-Hyo (Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engrg., Sejong Univ.)
  • 손경환 (세종대학교 토목환경공학과) ;
  • 이병주 (세종대학교 토목환경공학과) ;
  • 배덕효 (세종대학교 물자원연구소.토목환경공학과)
  • Received : 2010.04.14
  • Accepted : 2010.08.24
  • Published : 2010.09.30
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

The objective of this study is to suggest an approach for estimating probability rainfall using climate scenario data based GCM and to analyze changes of flood characteristics like probability rainfall, flood quantile and flood water level under climate change. The study area is Namhan river basin. Probability rainfalls which is taken 1440 minutes duration and 100-year frequency are estimated by using IPCC SRES A2 climate change scenario for each time period (S0: 1971~2000; S1: 2011~2040; S2: 2041~2070; S3: 2071~2100). Flood quantiles are estimated for 17 subbasins and flood water level is analyzed in the main channel from the downstream of Chungju dam to the upstream of Paldang dam. Probability rainfalls, peak flow from flood quantile and water depth from flood water level have increase rate in the range of 13.0~15.1 % based S0 (142.1 mm), 29.1~33.5% based S0 ($20,708\;m^3/s$), 12.6~13.6% in each S1, S2 and S3 period, respectively.

본 연구의 목적은 GCM으로부터 생산된 기후시나리오자료를 이용하여 미래 확률강우량을 산정하는 방법을 제안하고 미래기간의 확률강우량, 홍수량, 홍수위 산정을 통해 기후변화로 인한 홍수특성변화를 정량적으로 분석하는데 있다. 대상유역으로 남한강 상류유역을 선정하였으며, 기후시나리오자료는 13개 GCMs으로부터 IPCC SRES A2 기후시나리오 자료를 구축하였고 자료기간은 총 130년(1971~2100년)이다. 확률강우량은 4개 자료기간(S0: 1971~2000년; S1: 2011~2040년; S2: 2041~2070년; S3: 2071~2100년)으로 구분하여 강우지속기간 1440분의 100년 빈도 확률강우량을 산정하였다. 또한 17개 소유역에 대해 확률홍수량을 산정하고 충주댐 직하류부터 팔당댐 직상류까지의 주하도 구간에 대해 홍수위 분석을 수행하였다. 남한강유역은 과거기간의 확률강우량 142.1mm에 비해 13.0~15.1% 증가, 첨두홍수량은 $20,708.0\;m^3/s$에 비해 29.1~33.5% 증가, 홍수위는 구간평균 12.6~13.6% 증가하는 것을 확인하였다.

Keywords

References

  1. 과학기술부(2010). 기후변화에 의한 국가 수자원 영향분석 및 평가체계 적용, 수자원의 지속적 확보기술개발사업, 연구보고서.
  2. 건설부(1992). 한강수계치수기본계획: 하천정비기본계획.
  3. 건설교통부(2000). 한국확률강우량도 작성, 1999년도 수자원관리기법개발연구조사보고서.
  4. 건설교통부(2004). 한강유역조사 보고서
  5. 기상연구소(2004). 기후변화협약대응 지역기후시나리오 산출기술개발(III).
  6. 김병식, 김보경, 경민수, 김형수(2008), “기후변화가 극한 강우와 I-D-F 분석에 미치는 영향 평가.” 한국수자원학회논문집, 한국수자원학회, 제41권, 제4호, pp. 379-394.
  7. 배덕효, 정일원, 이병주, 전태현(2009). “MME(Multi-Model Ensemble)을 활용한 국가 수자원 기후변화 영향평가.” 한국수자원학회 2009년도 학술발표논문집, 한국수자원학회, pp. 198-222.
  8. Bae, D.H., Jung, I.W., Chang, H. (2008a). “Long-term trend of precipitation and runoff in Korean river basins.” Hydrological Processes, Vol. 22, No. 14, pp.2644-2656. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6861
  9. Bae, D.H., Jung, I.W., and Chang, H. (2008b). “Potential changes in Korean water resources estimated by high-resolution climate simulation.” Climate Research, Vol. 35, pp. 213-226. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00704
  10. Cameron, D., Beven, K., and Naden, P. (2000), “Flood Frequency Estimation by Continuous Simulation under Climate Change (with uncertainty).” Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 4, issue. 3, pp. 393-405. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-4-393-2000
  11. Choi, Y. (2002), “Changes on Frequency and Magnitude of Heavy Rainfall Events in Korea.” Journal of the KOREAN Data Analysis Society, Vol. 4, No. 3, pp. 269-282.
  12. Im, E.S., Jung, I.W., Chang, H. Bae, D.H., and Kwon, W.T. (2009). “Hydroclimatological response to dynamically downscaled climate change simulations for Korean basins.” Climatic Change, doi: 10.1007/s10584-009-9691-2.
  13. IPCC(2001). Climate change 2001: The Scienticfic Basis, IPCC Contribution of Working Group Ⅲ of the intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Nakicenovic N and lead authors). Cambridge: Cambridge Univ. Press.
  14. IPCC(2007). Climate Change 2007: The Scientific Basis, Summary for Policy Makers. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
  15. Jung, I.W., Bae, D.H., and Kim, G. (2010). “Recent trends of mean and extreme precipitation in Korea.” International Journal of Climatology, doi: 10.1002/ joc.2068
  16. Kay, A.L., Reynard, N.S., and Jones, R.G. (2006). “RCM rainfall for UK flood frequency estimation. I. Method and Validation.” Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 318,Issues. 1-4, pp. 151-162. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.06.012
  17. Kusunoki, K,J., Yoshimura, J., Yoshimura, H., Noda, A., Oouchi, K., and Mizuta, R. (2006). “Change of Baiu Rain Band in Global Warning Projection by anAtmospheric General Circulation Model with a 20-km Grid Size.” Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, Vol. 84, pp. 581-611. https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.84.581
  18. Mailhot, A., Duchesne, S., Caya, D., and Talbot G. (2007). “Assessment of future change in Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curve for Southern Quebecusing the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM).” Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 347, Issues. 1-2, pp. 197-210. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.09.019
  19. Sharply, A.N., and Williams, J.R. (1990). EPIC Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator, 1. model documentation. U.S Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, ARS-8.

Cited by

  1. Climate Change Impact Analysis of Urban Inundation in Seoul Using High-Resolution Climate Change Scenario vol.48, pp.5, 2015, https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2015.48.5.345
  2. Korean Flood Vulnerability Assessment on Climate Change vol.44, pp.8, 2011, https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2011.44.8.653
  3. Potential increase of flood hazards in Korea due to global warming from a high-resolution regional climate simulation vol.48, pp.1, 2012, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-012-0010-x
  4. The Application Assessment of Future Design Rainfall Estimation Method Using Scale Properties vol.45, pp.3, 2012, https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2012.45.3.253
  5. Spatially-explicit assessment of flood risk caused by climate change in South Korea vol.17, pp.1, 2013, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12205-013-1609-x
  6. Evaluation of Hybrid Downscaling Method Combined Regional Climate Model with Step-Wise Scaling Method vol.46, pp.6, 2013, https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2013.46.6.585