Current Status and Future Challenges of the National Population Projection in South Korea Concerning Super-Low Fertility Patterns

국제비교를 통해 바라본 한국의 장래인구추계 현황과 전망

  • Received : 2010.06.05
  • Accepted : 2010.07.23
  • Published : 2010.08.01

Abstract

South Korea has experienced a rapid fertility decline and notable mortality improvement. As the drop in TFR was quicker and greater in terms of tempo and magnitude, it cast a new challenge of population projection - how to improve the forecasting accuracy in the country with a super-low fertility pattern. This study begin with the current status of the national population projection as implemented by Statistics Korea by comparing the 2009 interim projection with the 2006 official national population projection. Secondly, this study compare the population projection system including projection agencies, projection horizons, projection intervals, the number of projection scenarios, and the number of assumptions on fertility, mortality and international migration among super-low fertility countries. Thirdly we illustrate a stochastic population projection for Korea by transforming the population rates into one parameter series. Finally we describe the future challenges of the national population projection, and propose the projection scenarios for the 2011 official population projection. To enhance the accuracy, we suggest that Statistics Korea should update population projections more frequently or distinguish them into short-term and long-term projections. Adding more than four projection scenarios including additional types of "low-variant"fertility could show a variety of future changes. We also expect Statistics Korea topay more attention to the determination of a base population that should include both national and non-national populations. Finally we hope that Statistics Korea will find a wise way to incorporate the ideas underlying the system of stochastic population projection as part of the official national population projection.

한국사회가 최근 초저출산율이 지속되고, 사망율이 괄목할 만큼 개선되면서 장래인구 추계는 새로운 도전을 받고 있다. 이 연구는 장래 인구를 보다 정확한 예측하고, 양질의 정보를 제공하기 위한 방안을 한국의 경우를 중심으로 여타 저출산 국가들과 비교연구를 통해 논의하였다. 구체적으로 이 연구는 1) 통계청이 실시한 2009년도 인구추계를 2006년도 공식 인구추계와 비교분석 하였고, 2) 한국의 인구추계방식을 다른 나라의 경우와 비교 분석하였다. 비교에는 어떤 기관이 인구추계를 담당하는지, 얼마나 먼 장래까지 추계 하는지, 얼마나 자주 행해지는지, 그리고 추계에 사용되는 출산, 사망, 이주에 관련된 가정과 시나리오의 수를 고려하였다. 3) 향후 50년간장래인구를 확률적 인구추계 방식을 도입하여 예측해 보았다. 4) 마지막으로 2011년 장래인구추계에 사용될 시나리오를 살펴보았다. 이러한 논의를 바탕으로 이 연구는, 장래인구추계의 정확성을 높이기 위해서 인구추계를 좀더 자주 실시할 것과, 단기와 장기추계의 구분, 시나리오 수를 기존 네 가지에서 더 늘릴 것을 제안하였다. 또한 기준인구 산정에 있어 국내 체류중인 외국인 인구를 고려할 것과 확률적 인구추계 방식도 도입할 것을 제안하였다.

Keywords

References

  1. Bongaarts, J. and G. Feeney (2000) "On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility" Population and Development Review 24(2): 271-291.
  2. Choi, Seulki (2004) "A Stochastic Population Projection for Japan: 2000-2050" MA Thesis, University of North Carolina.
  3. Eurostat, Statistical Office of the European Commission (2009) Population Projection: 2008-2060: Convergence Scenario, National and Regional Level.
  4. Golini, A. (1998) "How Low Can Fertility Be? Empirical Evidence" Population and Development Review 24(1): 59-73. https://doi.org/10.2307/2808122
  5. Jun, Kwang-Hee (2005) "The Transition to Sub-replacement Fertility in Korea: Implications and Prospects for Population Policy" The Japanese Journal of Population 3(1): 26-57.
  6. Jun, Kwang-Hee, Tai-Hun Kim, and Youngtae Cho (2005) "Fertility and Mortality Models for the National Population Projection" A Research Report by the Korean Population Association to Statistics Korea.
  7. Kaneko, Ryuichi (1993) "Projection System of Age-Specific Fertility Rate" (in Japanese) Japanese Journal of Population Problems 49(1): 12-38.
  8. Kaneko, Ryuichi (2003) "Elaboration of the Coale-McNeil Model as the Generalized Log Gamma Distribution: A New Identity and Empirical Enhancements" Demographic Research 9:223-262. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2003.9.10
  9. Keyfitz, N. (1981) "The Limits of Populations Forecasting" Population and Development Review 7: 579-593. https://doi.org/10.2307/1972799
  10. Lee, R. D. (1998) "Probabilistic Approaches to Population Forecasting" Population and Development Review. Supplement 24: 156-190. https://doi.org/10.2307/2808055
  11. Lee, R. D. and L. Carter (1992) "Modeling and Forecasting the Time Series of US Mortality" Journal of the American Statistical Association 87: 659-671. https://doi.org/10.2307/2290201
  12. Lutz, W., W. C. Sanderson, and S. Scherbov (1998) "Expert-based Probabilistic Population Projections" Population and Development Review. Supplement 24: 139-155. https://doi.org/10.2307/2808054
  13. Statistics Korea (2006) The Population Projection of Korea: 2006-2050 Statistics Korea
  14. Statistics Korea (2010) The Korean Statistical Information System. http://www.kosis.kr
  15. Statistics Korea (unpublished) The 2009 Interim Population Projection of Korea: 2009-2050 Statistics Korea
  16. United Nations (2008) World Population\Prospects: The 2008 Revision