• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.85-111
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• 2010

South Korea has experienced a rapid fertility decline and notable mortality improvement. As the drop in TFR was quicker and greater in terms of tempo and magnitude, it cast a new challenge of population projection - how to improve the forecasting accuracy in the country with a super-low fertility pattern. This study begin with the current status of the national population projection as implemented by Statistics Korea by comparing the 2009 interim projection with the 2006 official national population projection. Secondly, this study compare the population projection system including projection agencies, projection horizons, projection intervals, the number of projection scenarios, and the number of assumptions on fertility, mortality and international migration among super-low fertility countries. Thirdly we illustrate a stochastic population projection for Korea by transforming the population rates into one parameter series. Finally we describe the future challenges of the national population projection, and propose the projection scenarios for the 2011 official population projection. To enhance the accuracy, we suggest that Statistics Korea should update population projections more frequently or distinguish them into short-term and long-term projections. Adding more than four projection scenarios including additional types of "low-variant"fertility could show a variety of future changes. We also expect Statistics Korea topay more attention to the determination of a base population that should include both national and non-national populations. Finally we hope that Statistics Korea will find a wise way to incorporate the ideas underlying the system of stochastic population projection as part of the official national population projection.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.185-201
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• 2020

Scenario population projection reflects the high probability of future realization and ease of statistical interpretation. Statistics Korea (2019) also presents the results of 30 combinations, including special scenarios, as official statistics. However, deterministic population projections provide limited information about future uncertainties with several limitations that are not probabilistic. The deterministic population projections are scenario-based estimates and show a perfect autocorrelation of three factors (birth, death, movement) of population variation over time. Therefore, international organizations UN, the Max Planck Population Research Institute (MPIDR) of Germany and the Vienna Population Research Institute (VID) of Austria have suggested stochastic based population estimates. In addition, some National Statistics Offices have also adopted this method to provide information along with the scenario results. This paper calculates the demographics of Korea based on a probabilistic or stochastic basis and then draws the pros and cons and show implications of the scenario (deterministic) population projections.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.517-541
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• 2019

According to the OECD (2015) and UN (2017), Korea was classified as an immigration country. The designation as an immigration country means that net migration will remain positive and international migration is likely to affect population growth. KOSTAT (2011) used a model with more than 15 parameters to divide sexes, immigration and emigration based on the Wilson (2010) model, which takes into account population migration factors. Five years later, we assume the average of domestic net migration rate for the last five years and foreign government policy likely quota. However, both of these results were conservative estimates of international migration and provide different results than those used by the OECD and UN to classify an immigration country. In this paper, we proposed a stochastic projection on international migration using nonparametric model (FDM by Hyndman and Ullah (2007) and Coherent FDM by Hyndman et al. (2013)) that uses a functional data model for the international migration data of Korea from 2000-2017, noting the international migration such as immigration, emigration and net migration is non-linear and not linear. According to the result, immigration rate will be 1.098(male), 1.026(female) in 2018 and 1.228(male), 1.152(female) in 2025 per 1000 population, and the emigration rate will be 0.907(male), 0.879(female) in 2018 and 0.987(male), 0.959(female) in 2025 per 1000 population. Thus the net migration is expected to increase to 0.191(male), 0.148(female) in 2018 and 0.241(male), 0.192(female) in 2025 per 1000 population.

• Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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• v.51 no.1
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• pp.79-90
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• 2018

Fish ages are critical information in fish stock assessments because they are required for age-structure models such as virtual population analysis and stochastic catch-at-age models, whose outputs include recruitment strengths, a spawning stock size (abundance or biomass), and the projection of a fish population size in future. However, most countries other than the developed countries have not identified ages of fish caught by fisheries or surveys in a consistent manner for a long time (e.g.,>20 years). Instead, data about fish body sizes (e.g., lengths) have been well available because of ease of measurement. To infer age compositions of fish in a target group using fish length data, we intended to improve the length frequency analysis (LFA), which Schnute and Fournier had introduced in 1980. Our study was different in two ways from the Schnute and Fournier's method. First we calculated not only point estimates of age compositions but also the uncertainty in those estimates. Second, we modified LFA based on the von Bertalanffy growth model (vB-based model) to allow both individual-to-individual and cohort-to-cohort variability in estimates of parameters in the vB-based model. For illustration, we used data about lengths of Korean mackerel Scomber japonicas caught by purse-seine fisheries from 2000-2016.

• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.57-70
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• 1992

An excess risk of lung cancer mortality among Koreans, attributable to indoor $^{222}Rn$ daughters exposure, were quantitatively evaluated by applying a stochastic health risk projection model on the radiation exposure. The lung cancer rate in Korean males and females, based on the 1989 demographic data, were estimated to be $22.4/10^5-y\;and\;9.5/10^5-y$, respectively The lifetime baseline lung cancer risks, deduced from these rates, appeared to be 0.047 and 0.019 for males and females, respectively, and were lower than the corresponding 1984 values of 0.067 and 0.025 in the U.S.A. The excess risk coefficients, derived by modified relative risk projection model of the BEIR-IV Committee under the US National Academy of Science, per annual 1.0 WLM of exposure to indoor radon daughters were estimated to be 0.022/WLM for males, 0.009/WLM for females, and 0.017/WLM for both sexes. The resulting annual frequency of excess lung cancer mortality for the life expectancy in the Korean population appeared to be 230/10^6-WLM, which was an approximate median of $120{\sim}450/10^6-WLM$ reported so far in the world.