Journal of Korean Society of Transportation (대한교통학회지)

Korean Society of Transportation (대한교통학회)
권호 표지

Development of Accident Modification Factors for Road Design Safety Evaluation Algorithm of Rural Intersections

지방부 교차로의 도로설계 안전성 판단 알고리즘 구축을 위한 AMF 개발 (신호교차로를 중심으로)

  • Received : 2008.10.24
  • Accepted : 2009.04.27
  • Published : 2009.06.30
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

A traffic accident prediction model developed using various design variables(road design variables, geometric variables, and traffic environmental variables) is one of the most important factors to safety design evaluation system for roads. However, statistical accident models have a crucial problem not applicable for all intersections. To make up this problem, this study developed AMFs(Accident Modification Factors) through statistical modeling methods, historical accident databases, judgment from traffic experts, and literature review by considering design variable's characteristics, traffic accident rates, and traffic accident frequency. AMFs developed in this study include exclusive left-turn lane, exclusive right-turn lane, sight distance, and intersection angle. Predictabilities of the developed AMFs and the existing accident prediction models are compared with real accident historical data. The results showed that performances of the developed AMFs are superior to the existing statistical accident prediction models. These findings show that AMFs should be considered as a important process to develop safety design evaluation algorithms. Additionally, AMFs could be used as an index that can judge the impact of corresponding design variables on accidents in rural intersections.

도로설계 안전성을 평가하기 위해서는 도로의 설계 요소변화가 사고에 미치는 영향을 예측할 수 있어야 한다. 이를 위해 본 연구에서는 통계적 방법, 사고이력, 전문가의 판단, 그리고 기존문헌고찰 등 다양한 방법을 통하여, 설계요소의 특징과 사고율 및 사고빈도의 관계를 반영할 수 있는 AMF(Accident Modification Factor)를 개발하고자 하였다. 본 연구에서는 AMF를 좌회전전용차로, 우회전전용차로, 시거, 교차각 등의 항목을 대상으로 개발하였다. 개발된 AMF를 적용한 경우의 사고 예측값, 사고예측모형을 통한 예측값을 실제 사고데이터와 비교분석함으로써 적정성을 검토하였다. 분석결과, AMF를 적용한 예측값이 사고예측모형을 통한 예측 값보다 예측력이 우수함을 확인할 수 있었다. 이러한 결과는 사고를 예측함으로써 도로설계 안전성을 평가하는 알고리즘에 있어 AMF가 도로의 설계요소의 특성을 보다 효과적으로 반영하며, 지방부 교차로에서 각각의 해당요소가 사고에 미치는 영향을 판단할 수 있는 지표가 될 수 있음을 의미한다.

Keywords

References

  1. A Policy on Geometric Design of Highways and Streets. American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, Washington, D.C
  2. Charles V. Zegeer, J. et al(2005), 'Safety Effects of Marked Versus Unmarked Crosswalks at Uncontrolled Location: Final Report and Recommended Guidelines' FHWA-HRT-04-100
  3. Craig L et al.(2003) 'Empirical Investigation of th IHSDM accident prediction algorithm for rural intersections' Transportation research board annual meeting
  4. David Harkey(2004), 'Crash reduction factor for traffic engineering and ITS improvements', NCHRP project 17-25, Transportation research board of the national academies, Washington, D.C.
  5. Dominique Lord.(2008), 'Methodology for estimating the variance and confidence intervals for the estimate of the product of baseline models and AMFs' Accident analysis & Prevention https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2007.11.008
  6. Guidance for Implementation of the AASHTO Strategic Highway Safety Plan, Volume 9: A Guide for Reducing Collisions Involving Older Drivers' NCHRP Report 500, 2004
  7. Harwood(2002), 'Safety Effectiveness of Intersection Left-and Right-Turn Lanes' FHWARD- 02-089
  8. Harwood(2000), 'Prediction of the expected safety performance of rural two way lane high-way' Publication FHWA - RD-9-207. FHWA, U.S. Department of transportation
  9. J. Bonneson et al.(2007), 'Procedure For Using Accident Modification Factors In The Highway Design Process' FHWA/TX-07/0-4703-P5
  10. Kay Fitzpatrick(2008), 'Accident Modification Factors For Medians On Freeways And Multi lane Rural Highway In Texas', Transportation Research Board annual meeting
  11. Matthew G et al.(2000), 'Effects of road geometry and traffic volumes on rural roadway accident rates.' Accident Analysis and Pre vention 34 pp.357 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0001-4575(01)00033-1
  12. Reginald R. et al(2005), 'Guidelines for Removal of Traffic Control Devices in Rural Areas' IHRB Project TR-527
  13. 'Roadway Safety Design Synthesis'(2005), Texas Transportation Institute, The Texas A&M University System, College Station, Texas
  14. T.H. Maze et al(1994), 'Impact on safety of left-turn treatment at high speed signalized intersection.' Iowa Highway Research Board Project HR-347
  15. Vogt, A.(1999), 'Crash Models for Rural Intersections: Four - Lane by Two - Lane Stop Controlled and Two - Lane by Two-Lane Signalized.' Report No. FHWA - RD - 99 - 128
  16. Vogt, A., and J. Bared.(1998), 'Accident Models for Two-Lane Rural Roads: Segments and Intersections.' Report No. FHWA - RD - 98 - 133
  17. Warren Hughes et al.(2004), 'Development of a Highway Safety Manual' NCHRP 17-18
  18. 김경석 외(1996), '도로의 기하구조와 안전성의 상관관계 분석 연구', 국토개발연구원