대한안전경영과학회지 (Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science)

  • 제11권4호
  • /
  • Pages.119-125
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  • 2009
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  • 1229-6783(pISSN)
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  • 2288-1484(eISSN)
대한안전경영과학회 (Korea Safety Management & Science)
권호 표지

베이지안 기법을 이용한 국내 지진 사고 예측

Domestic earthquake prediction using bayesian approach

  • 양희중 (청주대학교 산업정보시스템공학과)
  • 투고 : 2009.08.06
  • 심사 : 2009.12.09
  • 발행 : 2009.12.30
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초록

We predict the earthquake rate in Korea following Bayesian approach. We make a model that can utilize the data to predict other levels of earthquake. An event tree model which is a frequently used graphical tool in describing accident initiation and escalation to more severe accident is transformed into an influence diagram model. Prior distributions for earthquake occurrence rate and probabilities to escalating to more severe earthquakes are assumed and likelihood of number of earthquake in a given period of time is assessed. And then posterior distributions are obtained based on observed data. We find that the minor level of earthquake is increasing while major level of earthquake is less likely.

키워드

참고문헌

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