The Economic and Social Implication of Count Regression Models for Married Women's Completed Fertility in Korea

우리나라 가구의 자녀수 결정요인에 관한 Count 모형 분석 및 경제적 함의

  • Published : 2007.12.25

Abstract

This paper uses a static Gamma count model, a traditional hurdle model and an endogenous switching Poisson model, respectively for determining married women's completed fertility rates in Korea. This paper analyzes the impact of household income, women's wage and education, and women's job market participation on the number of children of married women above age 40 and on the expected number of children of women aged below 40. The paper shows that a household income significantly increases the number of children for at least women aged above 40, however, this income effect is disappearing for younger generation. The empirical model suggests that women having a job tend to have fewer children for a group 39 years old and below and find that there is an endogeneity problem between child birth and labor force participation, too. The education level of married women gives a positive effect for giving a birth, itself, while it gives a negative impact on the number of children. Based on the empirical results, it concludes that Becker's Quantity-Quality theory works for Korea, too.

본 연구에서는 우리나라 가구의 자녀수 결정요인을 Count 모형을 이용하여 분석하였다. 분석 기법으로는 자녀수가 감마(Gamma) count 분포를 따른다는 가정 하에 기본적인 회귀분석과 40세 이하 기혼여성의 완결출산에 대한 대리변수로 예상출산자녀수에 대한 회귀분석, 허들모형 그리고 기혼여성의 노동시장 참여와 자녀출산간의 내생성을 고려한 모형을 각각 이용하여 다각적인 방법론으로 출산결정요인을 분석하였다. 분석결과, 가구의 소득수준이 높을수록 40세 이상 기혼여성의 자녀수는 많은 것으로 나타나는 반면, $18{\sim}39$세 기혼여성의 경우에는 소득이 자녀수에 큰 영향을 미치지 못하는 것으로 보인다. 기혼여성의 경제활동참여는 39세 이하의 비교적 젊은 여성들에게서 출산 예상자녀수에 부정적인 영향을 주는 것을 뚜렷이 확인할 수 있고, 출산과 경제활동참여 간에는 내생성이 존재하는 것으로 확인되었다. 허들모형을 이용한 결과, 기혼여성의 학력은 자녀출산 여부에는 긍정적으로 작용할 수 있으나 자녀수 결정에는 부정적으로 작용하여 기혼여성 학력이 높을수록 출산율은 감소하게 된다. 다양한 회귀분석 결과에 근거할 때 Becker의 Quantity-Quality 모형의 핵심내용은 우리나라의 자녀수 결정에 있어서도 대체적으로 적용됨을 확인할 수 있다.

Keywords

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