Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science (대한안전경영과학회지)

Korea Safety Management & Science (대한안전경영과학회)
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Safety Analysis using bayesian approach

베이지안 기법을 이용한 안전사고 예측기법

  • Yang, Hee-Joong (Dept. of Industrial & Information Systems Engineering, Cheongju University)
  • 양희중 (청주대학교 산업정보시스템공학과)
  • Published : 2007.10.30
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Abstract

We construct the procedure to predict safety accidents following Bayesian approach. We make a model that can utilize the data to predict other levels of accidents. An event tree model which is a frequently used graphical tool in describing accident initiation and escalation to more severe accident is transformed into an influence diagram model. Prior distributions for accident occurrence rate and probabilities to escalating to more severe accidents are assumed and likelihood of number of accidents in a given period of time is assessed. And then posterior distributions are obtained based on observed data. We also points out the advantages of the bayesian approach that estimates the whole distribution of accident rate over the classical point estimation.

Keywords

References

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