대한산업공학회지 (Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers)
- 제27권3호
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- Pages.233-238
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- 2001
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- 1225-0988(pISSN)
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- 2234-6457(eISSN)
자동차 부품 수요의 예측 모형 개발
Development of the Forecasting Model for Parts in an Automobile
- Hong, Jung-Sik (Department of Industrial & Informations Engineering, Seoul National University of Technology) ;
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Ahn, Jae-Kyung
(Department of Industrial & Informations Engineering, Seoul National University of Technology) ;
- Hong, Suk-Kee (Manufacturing Team, Samsung)
- 투고 : 20000700
- 심사 : 20010500
- 발행 : 2001.09.30
초록
This paper deals with demand forecasting of parts in an automobile model which has been extinct. It is important to estimate how much inventory of each part in the extinct model should be stocked because production lines of some parts may be replaced by new ones although there is still demands for the model. Furthermore, in some countries, there is a strong regulation that the automobile manufacturing company should provide customers with auto parts for several years whenever they are requested. The major characteristic of automobile parts demand forecasting is that there exists a close correlation between the number of running cars and the demand of each part. In this sense, the total demand of each part in a year is determined by two factors, the total number of running cars in that year and the failure rate of the part. The total number of running cars in year k can be estimated sequentially by the amount of shipped cars and proportion of discarded cars in years 1, 2,