• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.105-124
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• 2009

The situation of the global food markets has been being rapidly restructured and entering on a new phase by new dynamic and driving forces. The factors such as economic growth and income increase, high energy price, globalization, urbanization, and global climate change are transforming patterns of food consumption, production, and markets. The prices and markets of world food and energy are getting increasingly linked each other. Food and fuel are the global dilemma issues associated with the risk of diverting farmland or of consuming cereals for biofuel production in detriment of the cereals supply to the global food markets. An estimated 100 million tons of grain per year are being redirected from food to fuel. Therefore, the objectives of this study are as follows: Firstly, the study examines situations of the world food and energy resources, analyzes the trends of prices of the crude oil and biofuel, and formulates the food-energy links mechanism. Secondly, the study builds a simulation model, based on system dynamics approach, for not only analyzing the global cereals market and energy market but also forecasting the global production, consumption, and stock of those markets by 2030 in the future. The model of this study consists of four sectors, i.e., world population dynamics sector, global food market dynamics sector, global energy market dynamics sector, scenario sector of world economic growth and oil price.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.56 no.10
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• pp.4007-4017
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• 2024

In the city centre of Isparta, located in the southwestern part of Türkiye, indoor radon concentrations and gamma dose rate levels were observed above the world and country averages. For this reason, the determination of the natural radioactivity levels in soil samples of Isparta province is of great interest. In the present study, the activity concentrations of radionuclides (namely ²²⁶Ra,²³²Th, ⁴⁰K and ¹³⁷Cs) were investigated in the soil samples collected from 72 different points including the city centre and 12 towns of Isparta by using a gamma spectrometer with a high-purity germanium (HPGe) detector. The activity concentrations of ²²⁶Ra,²³²Th, ⁴⁰K and ¹³⁷Cs radionuclides in the samples were found in the range of 4.08 ± 0.39-69.84 ± 1.43 Bqkg^-1, 2.63 ± 0.28-65.66 ± 1.41 Bqkg^-1, 44.48 ± 3.17-452.38 ± 9.65 Bqkg^-1 and 0.28 ± 0.18-19.10 ± 0.61 Bqkg^-1 respectively. The averages of all the measurements were determined as 15.69 ± 0.72 Bqkg^-1 for 226Ra, 15.40 ± 0.78 Bqkg^-1 for ²³²Th, 210.60 ± 6.22 Bqkg^-1 for ⁴⁰K and 3.44 ± 0.31 Bqkg^-1 for ¹³⁷Cs. Although these values were below the country and world averages, it was revealed that the ²²⁶Ra and ²³²Th activity concentrations in the city centre exceeded the national and world averages. In addition, radiological risk maps of the analysed radionuclides were produced for the first time, covering all towns within the Isparta province. To evaluate the radiological hazards resulting from natural radionuclides, external hazard index (Hex), absorbed dose rate (D), annual effective dose equivalent (AEDE), male and female lifetime cancer risk (LCR) values were also calculated. The outcomes of this study revealed that all the radiological parameter averages for Isparta were lower than the world and country averages but the calculation results for the city centre displayed the opposite of this situation except for the external hazard index.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Toxicology Conference
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• 2003.05a
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• pp.58-58
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• 2003

Aflatoxins are metabolites of fungi Aspergillus spp. that world-widely contaminate diverse foodstuffs including com and peanuts. It is well known that aflatoxins are highly mutagenic, carcinogenic and possibly teratogenic. Although aflatoxins have received the great attention among the various mycotoxins due to their potent hepatocarcinogenicity in certain species, it is extremely crucial to elucidate the relative toxicity and carcinogenicity of the types (B$_1$, B$_2$, G$_1$ and G$_2$) of aflatoxins for the risk assessment.(omitted)

• Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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• v.41 no.6
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• pp.425-437
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• 2015

Objectives: Risk assessment is a tool for predicting and reducing uncertainty related to the effects of future activities. Probability approaches are the main elements in risk assessment, but confusion about the interpretation and use of assessment factors often undermines the message of the analyses. The aim of this study is to provide a guideline for systematic reduction plans regarding uncertainty in risk assessment. Methods: Articles and reports were collected online using the key words "uncertainty analysis" on risk assessment. Uncertainty analysis was conducted based on reports focusing on procedures for analysis methods by the World Health Organization (WHO) and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). In addition, case studies were performed in order to verify suggested methods qualitatively and quantitatively with exposure data, including measured data on toluene and styrene in residential spaces and multi-use facilities. Results: Based on an analysis of the data on uncertainty, three major factors including scenario, model, and parameters were identified as the main sources of uncertainty, and tiered approaches were determined. In the case study, the risk of toluene and styrene was evaluated and the most influential factors were also determined. Five reduction plans were presented: providing standard guidelines, using reliable exposure factors, possessing quality controls for analysis and scientific expertise, and introducing a peer review system. Conclusion: In this study, we established a method for reducing uncertainty by taking into account the major factors. Also, we showed a method for uncertainty analysis with tiered approaches. However, uncertainties are difficult to define because they are generated by many factors. Therefore, further studies are needed for the development of technical guidelines based on the representative scenario, model, and parameters developed in this study.

• Journal of Veterinary Clinics
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.78-84
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• 2015

Although researches have highlighted the important role of enhanced farm biosecurity to reduce the severity and prevalence of diseases in livestock, to date there has been little study in Korea on farmers' adoption of biosecurity measures to control porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) infection. To mitigate the risk of PRRSV infection in pigs, the risk factors by which PRRSV is introduced in pig farms must be determined. The primary aim of this study was to investigate pig producers' perceptions about on-farm biosecurity practices. We also analyzed data obtained from a cross-sectional study on 196 farrow-to-finish farms conducted between March 2013 and February 2014 to identify risk factors for PRRSV infection at farm level. Standardized questionnaires with information about basic demographical data and management practices were collected in each farm by on-site visit of trained veterinarians. Farms were classified as negative or positive through the use of infection profiles that combined data on PCR positive pigs and serological testing including antibody titer, sero-conversion pattern at each age category, and vaccination status. Data on biosecurity practices, farm management and environmental characteristics were analyzed using multivariate ordinal logistic regression. Generally, the biosecurity level in the pig farms included in this study were insufficient to reduce/prevent the risk of PRRSV infection given the high pig density areas and the considerable extent of vehicle movement. Factors associated with PRRSV infection were those where owners used on-farm vaccination programs had a lower risk of infection (OR = 0.19, 95% CI 0.06-0.61). The results from the analysis may guide to tailor biosecurity measures in the reduction or prevention of PRRS to the specific circumstances of pig farms in different localities of the world. To the best knowledge of the authors, this is the first study to report information on the biosecurity practices currently implemented on Korean pig farms.

• Atmosphere
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.195-207
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• 2020

This study aims to introduce the structure of the impact-based heat health warning system on 165 counties in South Korea developed by the National Institute of Meteorological Sciences. This system was developed using the daily maximum perceived temperature (PTmax), which is a human physiology-based thermal comfort index, and the Local ENSemble prediction system for the probability forecasts. Also, A risk matrix proposed by the World Meteorological Organization was employed for the impact-based forecasts of this system. The threshold value of the risk matrix was separately set depending on regions. In this system, the risk level was issued as four levels (GREEN, YELLOW, ORANGE, RED) for first, second, and third forecast lead-day (LD1, LD2, and LD3). The daily risk level issued by the system was evaluated using emergency heat-related patients obtained at six cities, including Seoul, Incheon, Daejeon, Gwangju, Daegu, and Busan, for LD1 to LD3. The high-risks level occurred more consistently in the shorter lead time (LD3 → LD1) and the performance (r_s) was increased from 0.42 (LD3) to 0.45 (LD1) in all cities. Especially, it showed good performance (r_s = 0.51) in July and August, when heat stress is highest in South Korea. From an impact-based forecasting perspective, PTmax is one of the most suitable temperature indicators for issuing the health risk warnings by heat in South Korea.

• Journal of Korean Medicine for Obesity Research
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.33-43
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• 2004

Background: Recently obesity has become a social problem in all over the world including Korea. It is known that obesity is closely related with cardiovascular disease. Many studies are carrying out in the relation between several obesity indices, such as body mass index(BMI), waist-circumference(WC), body fat percent and risk factors of cardiovascular disease. Objective: This study was done in order to investigate correlation of obesity and cardiovascular risk factors. Method: We gathered totally 138 subjects who have taken health screening test in university hospital. With the exception of 40 abnormal cases on current illness and laboratory study, 98 healthy cases were analysed. We divided the groups as normal, overweight, obese group according to body mass index $(22.9kg/m^2\;and\;below\;/\;23{\sim}24.9kg/m^2\;/\;25kg/m^2\;and\;above)$and investigated the relationship between obesity based on body mass index(BMI) and cardiovascular risk factors. And investigated the relationship between each cardiovascular risk factor and body mass index, waist-hip ratio, body fat percent. Results: With the exception of blood pressure, other lab data such as total cholesterol, triglycerid, glucose were significantly different between the three groups divided by body mass index$(22.9kg/m^2\;and\;below\;/\;23{\sim}24.9kg/m^2\;/\;25kg/m^2\;and\;above)$. And Correlation coefficient of cardiovascular risk factors with body mass index, waist-hip ratio, body fat precent were acquired. Conclusion: We have concluded that the body mass index and waist-hip ratio body fat precent were predictive factors cardiovascular disease.

• Journal of Aerospace System Engineering
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• v.12 no.5
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• pp.76-88
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• 2018

Space agencies such as NASA, ESA, and the US military provide guidelines and standards for PA(product assurance) requirements and plans. In recent years, major satellite manufacturers around the world have been mitigating PA requirements and processes by tailoring. PA tailoring has been implemented to improve the cost and schedule efficiency. PA tailoring can be accomplished based on various factors such as mission, classification of mission risk, complexity, development cost, life cycle, etc. In this study, PA tasks according to the mission risk classification proposed by NASA are investigated, and the tailoring method is suggested for the optimization of the development cost and schedule. In particular, the classification of mission risk for the satellites under development or operation in Korea is performed, and PA characteristics in accordance with mission risk are analyzed.

• Annals of Occupational and Environmental Medicine
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• v.35
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• pp.3.1-3.11
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• 2023

Background: Studies on the risk of mercury (Hg) in Korean fishery products focus primarily on total Hg levels as opposed to methylmercury (MeHg) levels. None of the few studies on MeHg in tuna investigated tuna from Japanese restaurants. Few have evaluated lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd) and arsenic (As) in tuna. Thus, this study aimed to conduct a risk assessment by evaluating heavy metal concentrations in tuna from Japanese restaurants. Methods: Thirty-one tuna samples were collected from Japanese restaurants in the Republic of Korea. They were classified according to region and species. The concentration of heavy metals in the samples was analyzed using the Ministry of Food and Drug Safety Food Code method. The rate of exceedance of maximum residue levels (MRLs) and the risk compared to the provisional tolerable weekly intake (PTWI) set by the Joint Food and Agriculture Organization/World Health Organization Expert Committee on Food Additives (%PTWI) were evaluated for risk assessment. Results: The mean of MeHg, Pb, Cd and As concentrations were 0.56 ± 1.47 mg/kg, 33.95 ± 3.74 ㎍/kg, 14.25 ± 2.19 ㎍/kg and 1.46 ± 1.89 mg/kg, respectively. No sample exceeded the MRLs of Pb and Cd, but 9.7% of the samples exceeded the MRL of MeHg. The %PTWIs of MeHg, Pb, Cd and As were 4.2037, 0.0162, 0.0244 and 1.1627, respectively. The %PTWI of MeHg by age group and sex was highest among men aged 19-29 years (10.6494), followed by men aged 30-49 years (7.2458) and women aged 19-29 years (4.8307). Conclusions: We found that 3 out of 31 samples exceeded the MRL of MeHg. The %PTWI of MeHg showed significant differences based on age and sex, and the value was likely to exceed a safe level depending on individuals' eating behaviors. Therefore, improved risk management for MeHg is required.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.175-190
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• 1997

Organizational change projects such as Business Process Redisign (BPR) have been perceived to incur high risk due to their high management complexity, enterprise-wide impace, and steep project cost. This research intends to reduce such risk by developing a systematic process redesign methods, called Dynamic Process Modeling (DPM) method. DPM integrates the customer-oriented business process modeling technique with computerized visual simulation technique to promote better understanding of the target process and enable performance simulation of the proposed redesign alternatives prior to actual BPR implementations. For the cusstomer-oriented process modeling, we propose Dynamic-Event Process Chain (Dynamic-EPC) extending from the conceptual customer process model, Event-Process Chain (EPC). We compare DPM with four other implementation-level process modeling methods over eight criteria and demonstrate its effectiveness by applying it to the real-world hospital BPR case.