• Title/Summary/Keyword: winds

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Water Level Prediction on the Golok River Utilizing Machine Learning Technique to Evaluate Flood Situations

  • Pheeranat Dornpunya;Watanasak Supaking;Hanisah Musor;Oom Thaisawasdi;Wasukree Sae-tia;Theethut Khwankeerati;Watcharaporn Soyjumpa
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.31-31
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    • 2023
  • During December 2022, the northeast monsoon, which dominates the south and the Gulf of Thailand, had significant rainfall that impacted the lower southern region, causing flash floods, landslides, blustery winds, and the river exceeding its bank. The Golok River, located in Narathiwat, divides the border between Thailand and Malaysia was also affected by rainfall. In flood management, instruments for measuring precipitation and water level have become important for assessing and forecasting the trend of situations and areas of risk. However, such regions are international borders, so the installed measuring telemetry system cannot measure the rainfall and water level of the entire area. This study aims to predict 72 hours of water level and evaluate the situation as information to support the government in making water management decisions, publicizing them to relevant agencies, and warning citizens during crisis events. This research is applied to machine learning (ML) for water level prediction of the Golok River, Lan Tu Bridge area, Sungai Golok Subdistrict, Su-ngai Golok District, Narathiwat Province, which is one of the major monitored rivers. The eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm, a tree-based ensemble machine learning algorithm, was exploited to predict hourly water levels through the R programming language. Model training and testing were carried out utilizing observed hourly rainfall from the STH010 station and hourly water level data from the X.119A station between 2020 and 2022 as main prediction inputs. Furthermore, this model applies hourly spatial rainfall forecasting data from Weather Research and Forecasting and Regional Ocean Model System models (WRF-ROMs) provided by Hydro-Informatics Institute (HII) as input, allowing the model to predict the hourly water level in the Golok River. The evaluation of the predicted performances using the statistical performance metrics, delivering an R-square of 0.96 can validate the results as robust forecasting outcomes. The result shows that the predicted water level at the X.119A telemetry station (Golok River) is in a steady decline, which relates to the input data of predicted 72-hour rainfall from WRF-ROMs having decreased. In short, the relationship between input and result can be used to evaluate flood situations. Here, the data is contributed to the Operational support to the Special Water Resources Management Operation Center in Southern Thailand for flood preparedness and response to make intelligent decisions on water management during crisis occurrences, as well as to be prepared and prevent loss and harm to citizens.

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Evaluation of Extreme Rainfall based on Typhoon using Nonparametric Monte Carlo Simulation and Locally Weighted Polynomial Regression (비매개변수적 모의발생기법과 지역가중다항식을 이용한 태풍의 극치강우량 평가)

  • Oh, Tae-Suk;Moon, Young-Il;Chun, Si-Young;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.29 no.2B
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    • pp.193-205
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    • 2009
  • Typhoons occurred in the tropical Pacific region, these might be affected the Korea moving toward north. The strong winds and the heavy rains by the typhoons caused a natural disaster in Korea. In the research, the heavy rainfall events based on typhoons were evaluated quantitative through various statistical techniques. First, probability precipitation and typhoon probability precipitation were compared using frequency analysis. Second, EST probability precipitation was calculated by Empirical Simulation Techniques (EST). Third, NL probability precipitation was estimated by coupled Nonparametric monte carlo simulation and Locally weighted polynomial regression. At the analysis results, the typhoons can be effected Gangneung and Mokpo stations more than other stations. Conversely, the typhoons can be effected Seoul and Inchen stations less than other stations. Also, EST and NL probability precipitation were estimated by the long-term simulation using observed data. Consequently, major hydrologic structures and regions where received the big typhoons impact should be review necessary. Also, EST and NL techniques can be used for climate change by the global warming. Because, these techniques used the relationship between the heavy rainfall events and the typhoons characteristics.

Study on the Establishment of the Separation Distance between Anchored Ships in Jinhae Bay Typhoon Refuge (진해만 태풍 피항지 정박 선박간 이격거리 설정에 관한 연구)

  • Won-Sik Kang;Ji-Yoon Kim;Dae-Won Kim
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.338-347
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    • 2023
  • Jinhae Bay, characterized by frequent runaway ships and strong winds during typhoon attacks, poses a high risk of maritime accidents such as ship collisions and groundings. This study aims to determine a safe separation distance between ships in the Jinhae Bay anchorage, considering the unique environmental characteristics of the Korean sea area. Analysis revealed that an average of 100-200 ships anchor in the typhoon avoidance area in Jinhae Bay during typhoon attacks, with approximately 70% of ships experiencing anchor dragging owing to strong external forces exceeding 25 m/s wind speeds. In this study, we analyzed and presented the separation distances between ships during anchoring operations based on domestic and international design standards, separation distances between ships used as actual typhoon shelters in Jinhae Bay, and appropriate safe distances for ships drifting under strong external forces. The analysis indicated that considering the minimum criteria based on the design standards and emergency response time, a minimum safe distance of approximately 400-900 m was required. In cases where ample space was available, the separation distance was recommended to be set between 700 to 900 m. The findings of this study are anticipated to contribute to the development of guidelines for establishing safe separation distances between ships seeking refuge from typhoons in Jinhae Bay in the future.

Calculating Sea Surface Wind by Considering Asymmetric Typhoon Wind Field (비대칭형 태풍 특성을 고려한 해상풍 산정)

  • Hye-In Kim;Wan-Hee Cho;Jong-Yoon Mun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.29 no.7
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    • pp.770-778
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    • 2023
  • Sea surface wind is an important variable for elucidating the atmospheric-ocean interactions and predicting the dangerous weather conditions caused by oceans. Accurate sea surface wind data are required for making correct predictions; however, there are limited observational datasets for oceans. Therefore, this study aimed to obtain long-period high-resolution sea surface wind data. First, the ERA5 reanalysis wind field, which can be used for a long period at a high resolution, was regridded and synthesized using the asymmetric typhoon wind field calculated via the Generalized Asymmetric Holland Model of the numerical model named ADvanced CIRCulation model. The accuracy of the asymmetric typhoon synthesized wind field was evaluated using data obtained from Korea Meteorological Administration and Japan Meteorological Administration. As a result of the evaluation, it was found that the asymmetric typhoon synthetic wind field reproduce observations relatively well, compared with ERA5 reanalysis wind field and symmetric typhoon synthetic wind field calculated by the Holland model. The sea surface wind data produced in this study are expected to be useful for obtaining storm surge data and conducting frequency analysis of storm surges and sea surface winds in the future.

Estimation of Reduction Rate of Airborne Chlorides base on Coastal Distance and Facilities in Incheon Port, South Korea (인천항의 대기 중 비래염분량의 시설물별 특성 및 해안거리에 따른 감소량 추정)

  • Jahe Jung;Jong-Suk Lee
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.13-21
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    • 2023
  • In this study, the coastal airborne chlorides were investigated in the Incheon Port, South Korea. Monthly measurements of coastal airborne chlorides were taken for a total of 2 years from September 2021 to August 2023 at 15 locations in North, South, and New Port. We analyzed the distribution characteristics of airborne chloride based on port facilities and measurement environments, as well as the reduction characteristics of the airborne chloride with respect to coastal distance. As a result, the monthly distribution range of the airborne chloride in the North, South, and New Port varied similarly, ranging from 0.4 to 3.3 mdd. Due to the influence of seasonal winds considering the direction of the coastline, both the North Port and South Port had higher the airborne chloride in winter, while the New Port had higher content in summer. The airborne chlorides were higher at locations inside an inland sea compared to those outside an inland sea. This is because the wind coming from the sea passed through the inland sea. Even in the same region with identical coastal distances, there were variations in airborne chloride levels depending on the height above the ground. In tidal zone, the monthly airborne chlorides were significantly higher in the lower part than in the upper part. The rate of decrease equation of airborne chlorides for each port based on the distance from the coastline was derived, and the results showed that as the distance from the coastline increased, the rate of decrease in airborne chlorides was the highest for New Port and the lowest for South Port.

Screening Cases of Potential Extreme Natural Hazards Based on External Event Analysis of Operational Nuclear Power Plants (가동 원전의 외부사건 분석에 기반한 잠재적 극한자연재해의 선별)

  • Chung, Gil-Young;Kim, Gi-Bae;Park, Hyun-Sung;Park, Hyung-Kui ;Choun, Young-Sun;Chang, Soo-Hyuk
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.43 no.6
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    • pp.699-708
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    • 2023
  • Nuclear power plants (NPPs) consider possible external events, including natural hazards, during the design phase to ensure safe operation. However, in recent years, due to the increasing probability of natural hazards exceeding the design, a careful review of extreme natural hazards and unforeseen external events during the design phase has become necessary. In this study, the objective was to screen potential extreme natural hazards at NPP sites in Korea. Initially, we investigated and analyzed the characteristics of NPP sites and the events caused by external hazards. Furthermore, we analyzed existing literature and research data to establish screening procedures and criteria that suit the actual conditions of domestic NPPs. Based on these criteria and data, we conducted qualitative screening for each NPP site and identified potential extreme natural hazards through quantitative screening and walkdown. As a result of the screening, in addition to internal flooding caused by heavy rain, wind pressure and extreme air pressure caused by extreme winds were screened as potential extreme natural hazards common to all sites. Additionally, at the Kori site, storm surge was selected as the most significant potential extreme natural hazard.

Prediction of Pull-Out Force of Steel Pegs Using the Relationship Between Degree of Compaction and Hardness of Soil Conditioned on Water Content (함수비에 따른 토양의 다짐도와 경도의 관계를 이용한 철항의 인발저항력 예측 연구)

  • Choi, In-Hyeok;Heo, Gi-Seok;Lee, Jin-Young;Kwak, Dong-Youp
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.39 no.12
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    • pp.23-35
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    • 2023
  • The Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs has announced design standards for disaster-resilient greenhouses capable of resisting wind speeds with a 30-year frequency to respond to the destruction of greenhouses caused by strong winds. However, many greenhouses are still being maintained or newly installed as conventional standard facilities for the supply type. In these supply-type greenhouses, a small pile called a steel peg is used as reinforcement to resist wind-induced damage. The wind resistance of steel pegs varies depending on the soil environment and installation method. In this study, a correlation analysis was performed between the wind resistance of steel pegs installed in loam and sandy loam, using a soil hardness meter. To estimate the pull-out force of steel pegs based on soil water content and compaction, soil compaction tests and laboratory soil box and field tests were performed. The soil compaction degree was measured using a soil hardness meter that could easily confirm soil compaction. This was used to analyze the correlation between the soil compaction degree in the tests. In addition, a correlation analysis was performed between the pull-out force of steel pegs in the soil box and field. The findings of this study will be useful in predicting the pull-out force of steel pegs based on the method of steel peg installation and environmental changes.

Seasonal Variation of Surface Sediments in the Myeongsasipri Tidal Flat, Gochanggun, SW Korea (고창군 명사십리 조간대 표층 퇴적물의 계절 변화)

  • So, Kwang-Suk;Ryang, Woo-Hun;Kwon, Yi-Kyun
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.181-188
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    • 2009
  • The macro tidal flat of the Gochanggun Myongsasipri, located on the southwestern coast of Korea, is studied in terms of seasonal variations of surface sediment and sedimentary environment. Surface sediments of 45 sites in the winter (February) and the summer (August) are sampled across three survey lines (15 sites in each survey line), respectively. The tidal flat of open-coast Myongsasipri is mainly composed of fine to medium sand, the distribution of which shows a coast-parallel trend. Grain-size distribution has a bi-modal trend, and grain size in the winter is coarser than that in the summer. During the winter, the upper tidal flat is dominated by medium sand, while the lower tidal flat is dominated by find sand. Such a feature is attributed to wave-dominated sedimentation in the winter. The finer grains of the summer rather than that of the winter and relationship between texture parameters suggest that tidal energy plays an important role in tidal-flat sedimentation during the summer. This study represents an environmental change from wave-dominated conditions in the winter to tide-dominated conditions in the summer as a result of the seasonal variation in the intensity of onshore-directed winds and waves in the Myongsasipri tidal flat.

Budbreak, Floral Bud and Fruit Characteristics of Kiwifruit as Affected by Various Windbreaks (파풍망 종류에 따른 키위의 발아, 개화 및 과실 특성)

  • Kwack, Yong-Bum;Kim, Hong Lim;Lee, Mockhee;Rhee, Han-Cheol;Kwak, Youn-Sig;Lee, Yong Bok
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.169-174
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    • 2017
  • BACKGROUND:Kiwifruit growers build their vineyards using many windbreaks to protect their kiwifruit vines from defoliation injury by strong winds such as typhoon. In this study, we have compared fruit quality, budbreak rate and floral bud as affected by windbreaks. And also we surveyed several microclimate indices of kiwifruit orchard depending on the covering materials of arch-type windbreaks. METHODS AND RESULTS: Five different windbreak materials including polyethylene film (PE), blue- and white-colored nets were tested in pipe-framed archtype kiwifruit vineyards as the covering materials. Photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), annual mean temperature (AMT) and chill unit (CU) as well as fruit quality were compared among the covering materials. In all treatments, annual PAR was more than $400{\mu}mol\;m^{-2}s^{-1}$, in which kiwifruit leaf could reach its maximum photosynthesis, since the leaves were emerged. Annual mean temperature was greater in 0.1 mm-PE covering as much as $1-2^{\circ}C$ than other windbreaks. In CU calculated by three different models, all windbreaks showed more than 1400 CU that is fully fulfilled CU for kiwifruit rest completion. There were no difference in budbreak rate among the covering materials. Fruit weight was heavier in 0.1 mm-PE and white-net (4 mm) than other windbreaks. CONCLUSION: Regardless of the windbreak materials, the PAR quantity was enough for kiwifruit photosynthesis. And CU for kiwifruit rest completion was fully achieved in all treatments. However, with respect to fruit weight, quantity of PAR, and AMT, etc., It is highly recommended for kiwifruit growers to choose 0.1 mm-PE and white-net (4 mm) as for their windbreaks materials.

Schematic Maps of Ocean Currents in the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea for Science Textbooks Based on Scientific Knowledge from Oceanic Measurements (관측 기반 과학적 지식에 근거한 과학교과서 황해 및 동중국해 해류모식도)

  • PARK, KYUNG-AE;PARK, JI-EUN;CHOI, BYOUNG-JU;LEE, SANG-HO;SHIN, HONG-RYEOL;LEE, SANG-RYONG;BYUN, DO-SEONG;KANG, BOONSOON;LEE, EUNIL
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.151-171
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    • 2017
  • Most of oceanic current maps in the secondary school science and earth science textbooks have been made on the base of extensive in-situ measurements conducted by Japanese oceanographers during 1930s. According to up-to-date scientific knowledge on the currents in the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea (YES), such maps have significant errors and are likely to cause misconceptions to students, thus new schematic map of ocean currents is needed. The currents in the YES change seasonally due to relatively shallow water depths, complex terrain, winds, and tides. These factors make it difficult to construct a unified ocean current map of the YES. Sixteen major items, such as the flow of the Kuroshio Current into the East China Sea and its northward path, the origin of the Tsushima Warm Current and its path into the Korea Strait, the path of Taiwan Warm Current, the Jeju Warm Current, the runoff pattern of the Yangtze River flow, the routes of the northward Yellow Sea Warm Current, the Chinese Coastal Current, and the West Korea Coastal Current off the west coast of the Korean Peninsula, were selected to produce the schematic current map. Review of previous scientific researches, in-depth discussions through academic conferences, expert discussions, and consultations for three years since 2014 enabled us to produce the final ocean current maps for the YES after many revisions. Considering the complexity of the ocean currents, we made seven ocean current maps: two representative current patterns in summer and winter, seasonal current maps for upper layer and lower layer in summer and winter, and one representative surface current map. It is expected that the representative maps of the YES, connected to the current maps of the East Sea and the Northwest Pacific Ocean, would be widely utilized for diverse purposes in the secondary-school textbooks as well as high-level educational purposes and even for scientific scholarly experts.