• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
• /
• v.27 no.5
• /
• pp.158-163
• /
• 2012

This study is concerned with the estimation of wind speeds for return period in cellularized district of Busan by the recent meteorological data. Recently standard of the wind load in Busan area is determined by using meteorological wind speed data which is observed on Automated Synoptic Observing System(ASOS) only. Applying the existing basic wind speed that is 40m/s to the construction design of Busan area is inefficient. Because the wind speeds of Busan area show different amounts depend on the location of cellularized district. This research analyze the observed data of wind speeds of cellularized district in Busan based on Automate Weather System(AWA). In addition that we compute regional wind speeds for return period by using Gumbel distribution and study and compare with the existing basic wind speeds after evaluating appropriateness by Hazen's plot method.

• Wind and Structures
• /
• v.30 no.2
• /
• pp.141-153
• /
• 2020

Probabilistic information regarding directional extreme wind speeds is important for the precise estimation of the design wind loads on structures. A joint probability distribution model of directional extreme typhoon wind speeds is established using Monte Carlo simulation and empirical copula function to fully consider the correlations of extreme typhoon wind speeds among the different directions. With this model, a procedure for estimating directional extreme wind speeds for given return periods, which ensures that the overall risk is distributed uniformly by direction, is established. Taking 5 typhoon-prone cities in China as examples, the directional extreme typhoon wind speeds for given return periods estimated by the present method are compared with those estimated by the method proposed by Cook and Miller (1999). Two types of directional factors are obtained based on Cook and Miller (1999) and the UK standard's drafting committee (Standard B, 1997), and the directional risks for the given overall risks are discussed. The influences of the extreme wind speed correlations in the different directions and the simulated typhoon wind speed sample sizes on the estimated extreme wind speeds for a given return period are also discussed.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• v.51 no.2
• /
• pp.607-617
• /
• 2019

Global warming and climate change are increasing the intensity of typhoons and hurricanes and thus increasing the risk effects of typhoon and hurricane hazards on nuclear power plants (NPPs). To reflect these changes, a new NPP should be designed to endure design-basis hurricane wind speeds corresponding to an exceedance frequency of $10^{-7}/yr$. However, the short typhoon and hurricane observation records and uncertainties included in the inputs for an estimation cause significant uncertainty in the estimated wind speeds for return periods of longer than 100,000 years. A logic-tree framework is introduced to handle the epistemic uncertainty when estimating wind speeds. Three key parameters of a typhoon wind field model, i.e., the central pressure difference, pressure profile parameter, and radius to maximum wind, are used for constructing logic tree branches. The wind speeds of the simulated typhoons and the probable maximum wind speeds are estimated using Monte Carlo simulations, and wind hazard curves are derived as a function of the annual exceedance probability or return period. A logic tree decreases the epistemic uncertainty included in the wind intensity models and provides reasonably acceptable wind speeds.

• International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
• /
• v.7 no.6
• /
• pp.1007-1019
• /
• 2015

The determination of the required seawall height is usually based on the combination of wind speed (or wave height) and still water level according to a specified return period, e.g., 50-year return period wind speed and 50-year return period still water level. In reality, the two variables are be partially correlated. This may be lead to over-design (costs) of seawall structures. The above-mentioned return period for the design of a seawall depends on economy, society and natural environment in the region. This means a specified risk level of overtopping or damage of a seawall structure is usually allowed. The aim of this paper is to present a conditional risk probability-based seawall height design method which incorporates the correlation of the two variables. For purposes of demonstration, the wind speeds and water levels collected from Jiangsu of China are analyzed. The results show this method can improve seawall height design accuracy.

• Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea Structure & Construction
• /
• v.34 no.2
• /
• pp.29-40
• /
• 2018

Strength design wind loads for the wind resistance design of structures shall be evaluated by the product of wind loads calculated based on the basic wind speed with 100 years return period and the wind load factor 1.3 specified in the provisions of load combinations in Korean Building Code (KBC) 2016. It may be sure that the wind load factor 1.3 in KBC(2016) had not been determined by probabilistic method or empirical method using meteorological wind speed data in Korea. In this paper, wind load factors were evaluated by probabilistic method and empirical method. The annual maximum 10 minutes mean wind speed data at 69 meteorological stations during past 40 years from 1973 to 2012 were selected for this evaluation. From the comparison of the results of those two method, it can be found that the mean values of wind load factors calculated both probability based method and empirical based method were similar at all meteorological stations. When target level of reliability index is set up 2.5, the mean value of wind load factors for all regions should be presented about 1.35. When target level of reliability index is set up 3.0, wind load factor should be presented about 1.46. By using the relationship between importance factor(conversion factor for return period) and wind load factor, the return periods for strength design were estimated and expected wind speeds of all regions accounting for strength design were proposed. It can be found that return period to estimate wind loads for strength design should be 500 years and 800 years in according to target level of reliability index 2.5 and 3.0, respectively. The 500 years basic wind speed map for strength design was suggested and it can be used with a wind load factor 1.0.

• Wind and Structures
• /
• v.25 no.3
• /
• pp.261-282
• /
• 2017

The probabilistic information of directional extreme wind speeds is important for precisely estimating the design wind loads on structures. A new joint probability distribution model of directional extreme wind speeds is established based on observed wind-speed data using multivariate extreme value theory with the t-Copula function in the present study. At first, the theoretical deficiencies of the Gaussian-Copula and Gumbel-Copula models proposed by previous researchers for the joint probability distribution of directional extreme wind speeds are analysed. Then, the t-Copula model is adopted to solve this deficiency. Next, these three types of Copula models are discussed and evaluated with Spearman's rho, the parametric bootstrap test and the selection criteria based on the empirical Copula. Finally, the extreme wind speeds for a given return period are predicted by the t-Copula model with observed wind-speed records from several areas and the influence of dependence among directional extreme wind speeds on the predicted results is discussed.

• Wind and Structures
• /
• v.31 no.5
• /
• pp.473-482
• /
• 2020

The first-order method for estimating the extreme wind pressure on building envelopes with consideration of the directionality of wind speed and wind pressure is improved to enhance its computational efficiency. In this improved method, the result is obtained directly from the empirical distribution of a random selection of annual maximum wind pressure samples generated by a Monte Carlo method, rather than from the previously utilized extreme wind pressure probability distribution. A discussion of the relationship between the first- and full-order methods indicates that when extreme wind pressures in a non-typhoon climate with a high return period are estimated with consideration of directionality, using the relatively simple first-order method instead of the computationally intensive full-order method is reasonable. The validation of this reasonableness is equivalent to validating two assumptions to improve its computational efficiency: 1) The result obtained by the full-order method is conservative when the extreme wind pressure events among different sectors are independent. 2) The result obtained by the first-order method for a high return period is not significantly affected when the extreme wind speeds among the different sectors are assumed to be independent. These two assumptions are validated by examples in different regions and theoretical derivation.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
• /
• v.10 no.1
• /
• pp.9-14
• /
• 2010

Recent increase in the strength and frequency of typoons due to climate change claims reconsideration of the design wind load in existing design codes for civil engineering structures in which the basic wind speed is estimated based on meteorological data by mid 1990s. In this paper, based on wind speed data at 76 observatories in Korea from 1961 through 2008, the basic wind speeds which can be utilized in designing civil engineering structures including buildings and bridges are estimated using the statistical process. The return period of the wind speed for each location is determined using the Gumbel distribution. The results for considered locations are compared to the existing design codes. Also, for design applications, the wind speed map, which classifies the country into four basic wind speed zones, is proposed using the resulting basic wind speeds.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
• /
• v.28 no.1
• /
• pp.53-62
• /
• 2016

Extreme wind speeds at four sites including Mokpo, Gunsan, Incheon and Jeju near the Western Coast have been estimated with a tool of Monte Carlo simulation and typhoon data. Results of sensitivity analysis show that closeness between distance to the eye and the radius to maximum wind is most sensitive. While location angle and pressure deficit are sensitive too, but translation velocity is not. A standard typhoon, which results in extreme wind speeds having various return period, can be constructed by combination of parameter informations of each site. Then, with a numerical modelling of the typhoon, extreme surge heights having the same return period can also be obtained. To be added, by analysing the data which only including those based on navigable semicircle, it is possible to produce a standard typhoon which could result in setting-down of sea level.

• Wind and Structures
• /
• v.8 no.6
• /
• pp.389-406
• /
• 2005

The results of reference wind speed calculation in Croatia as a base for the revision of the Croatian standards for wind loads upon structures are presented. Wind speed averaged over 10 minutes, at 10 m height, in a flat, open terrain, with a 50-year mean return period is given for 27 meteorological stations in Croatia. It is shown that the greatest part of Croatia is covered with expected reference wind speeds up to 25 m/s. Exceptions are stations with specific anemometer location open to the bura wind which is accelerated due to the channelling effects of local orography and the nearby mountain passes where the expected reference wind speed ranges between 38 m/s and 55 m/s. The methodology for unifying all available information from wind measurements regardless of the averaging period is discussed by analysing wind speed variability at the meteorological station in Hvar.