• Title/Summary/Keyword: wind speed gradient

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High-resolution Meteorological Simulation Using WRF-UCM over a Coastal Industrial Urban Area (WRF-UCM을 이용한 연안산업도시지역 고해상도 기상 모델링)

  • Bang, Jin-Hee;Hwang, Mi-Kyoung;Kim, Yangho;Lee, Jiho;Oh, Inbo
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.45-54
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    • 2020
  • High-resolution meteorological simulations were conducted using a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with an Urban Canopy Model (UCM) in the Ulsan Metropolitan Region (UMR) where large-scale industrial facilities are located on the coast. We improved the land cover input data for the WRF-UCM by reclassifying the default urban category into four detailed areas (low and high-density residential areas, commercial areas, and industrial areas) using subdivided data (class 3) of the Environmental and Geographical Information System (EGIS). The urban area accounted for about 12% of the total UMR and the largest proportion (47.4%) was in the industrial area. Results from the WRF-UCM simulation in a summer episode with high temperatures showed that the modeled temperatures agreed greatly with the observations. Comparison with a standard WRF simulation (WRF-BASE) indicated that the temporal and spatial variations in surface air temperature in the UMR were properly captured. Specifically, the WRF-UCM reproduced daily maximum and nighttime variations in air temperature very well, indicating that our model can improve the accuracy of temperature simulation for a summer heatwave. However, the WRF-UCM somewhat overestimated wind speed in the UMR largely due to an increased air temperature gradient between land and sea.

Impacts of the High Resolution Land Cover Data on the 1989 East-Asian Summer Monsoon Circulation in a Regional Climate Model (지역기후모델에서 고해상도 지면피복이 1989년 동아시아 여름몬순 순환에 미치는 영향)

  • Suh, Myoung-Seok;Lee, Dong-Kyou
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.75-90
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    • 2005
  • This study examines the impacts of land cover changes on the East Asia summer monsoon with the National Center for Atmospheric Research Regional Climate Model (NCAR RegCM2), coupled with Biosphere Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS). To assess the goals, two types of land cover maps were used in the simulation of summer climate. One type was NCAR land cover map (CTL) and the other was current land cover map derived from satellite data (land cover: LCV). Warm and cold surface temperature biases of $1-3^{\circ}C$ occurred over central China and Mongolia in CTL. The model produced excessive precipitation over northern land area but less over southern ocean of the model domain. Changes of biophysical parameters, such as albedo, minimum stomatal resistance and roughness length, due to the land cover changes resulted in the alteration of land-atmosphere interactions. Latent heat flux and wind speed in LCV increased noticeably over central China where deciduous broad leaf trees have been replaced by mixed farm and irrigated crop. As a result, the systematic warm biases over central China were greatly reduced in LCV. Strong cooling of central China decreased pressure gradient between East Asian continent and Pacific Ocean. The decreased pressure gradient suppressed the northward transport of moisture from south China and South China Sea. These changes reduced not only the excessive precipitation over north China and Mongolia but also less precipitation over south China. However, the land cover changes increased the precipitation over the Korean Peninsula and the Japan Islands, especially in July and August.

Prediction of golf scores on the PGA tour using statistical models (PGA 투어의 골프 스코어 예측 및 분석)

  • Lim, Jungeun;Lim, Youngin;Song, Jongwoo
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.41-55
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    • 2017
  • This study predicts the average scores of top 150 PGA golf players on 132 PGA Tour tournaments (2013-2015) using data mining techniques and statistical analysis. This study also aims to predict the Top 10 and Top 25 best players in 4 different playoffs. Linear and nonlinear regression methods were used to predict average scores. Stepwise regression, all best subset, LASSO, ridge regression and principal component regression were used for the linear regression method. Tree, bagging, gradient boosting, neural network, random forests and KNN were used for nonlinear regression method. We found that the average score increases as fairway firmness or green height or average maximum wind speed increases. We also found that the average score decreases as the number of one-putts or scrambling variable or longest driving distance increases. All 11 different models have low prediction error when predicting the average scores of PGA Tournaments in 2015 which is not included in the training set. However, the performances of Bagging and Random Forest models are the best among all models and these two models have the highest prediction accuracy when predicting the Top 10 and Top 25 best players in 4 different playoffs.

Validation of GCOM-W1/AMSR2 Sea Surface Temperature and Error Characteristics in the Northwest Pacific (북서태평양 GCOM-W1/AMSR2 해수면온도 검증 및 오차 특성)

  • Kim, Hee-Young;Park, Kyung-Ae;Woo, Hye-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.721-732
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    • 2016
  • The accuracy and error characteristics of microwave Sea Surface Temperature (SST) measurements in the Northwest Pacific were analyzed by utilizing 162,264 collocated matchup data between GCOM-W1/AMSR2 data and oceanic in-situ temperature measurements from July 2012 to August 2016. The AMSR2 SST measurements had a Root-Mean-Square (RMS) error of about $0.63^{\circ}C$ and a bias error of about $0.05^{\circ}C$. The SST differences between AMSR2 and in-situ measurements were caused by various factors, such as wind speed, SST, distance from the coast, and the thermal front. The AMSR2 SST data showed an error due to the diurnal effect, which was much higher than the in-situ temperature measurements at low wind speed (<6 m/s) during the daytime. In addition, the RMS error tended to be large in the winter because the emissivity of the sea surface was increased by high wind speeds and it could induce positive deviation in the SST retrieval. Low sensitivity at colder temperature and land contamination also affected an increase in the error of AMSR2 SST. An analysis of the effect of the thermal front on satellite SST error indicated that SST error increased as the magnitude of the spatial gradient of the SST increased and the distance from the front decreased. The purpose of this study was to provide a basis for further research applying microwave SST in the Northwest Pacific. In addition, the results suggested that analyzing the errors related to the environmental factors in the study area must precede any further analysis in order to obtain more accurate satellite SST measurements.

Estimation of Road Surface Condition during Summer Season Using Machine Learning (기계학습을 통한 여름철 노면상태 추정 알고리즘 개발)

  • Yeo, jiho;Lee, Jooyoung;Kim, Ganghwa;Jang, Kitae
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.17 no.6
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    • pp.121-132
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    • 2018
  • Weather is an important factor affecting roadway transportation in many aspects such as traffic flow, driver 's driving patterns, and crashes. This study focuses on the relationship between weather and road surface condition and develops a model to estimate the road surface condition using machine learning. A road surface sensor was attached to the probe vehicle to collect road surface condition classified into three categories as 'dry', 'moist' and 'wet'. Road geometry information (curvature, gradient), traffic information (link speed), weather information (rainfall, humidity, temperature, wind speed) are utilized as variables to estimate the road surface condition. A variety of machine learning algorithms examined for predicting the road surface condition, and a two - stage classification model based on 'Random forest' which has the highest accuracy was constructed. 14 days of data were used to train the model and 2 days of data were used to test the accuracy of the model. As a result, a road surface state prediction model with 81.74% accuracy was constructed. The result of this study shows the possibility of estimating the road surface condition using the existing weather and traffic information without installing new equipment or sensors.

The Gradient Variation of Thermal Environments on the Park Woodland Edge in Summer - A Study of Hadongsongrim and Hamyangsangrim - (여름철 공원 수림지 가장자리의 온열환경 기울기 변화 - 하동송림과 함양상림을 대상으로 -)

  • Ryu, Nam-Hyong;Lee, Chun-Seok
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.43 no.6
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    • pp.73-85
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    • 2015
  • This study investigated the extent and magnitude of the woodland edge effects on users' thermal environments according to distance from woodland border. A series of experiments to measure air temperature, relative humidity, wind velocity, MRT and UTCI were conducted over six days between July 31 and August 5, 2015, which corresponded with extremely hot weather, at the south-facing edge of Hadongsongrim(pure Pinus densiflora stands, tree age: $100{\pm}33yr$, tree height: $12.8{\pm}2.7m$, canopy closure: 75%, N $35^{\circ}03^{\prime}34.7^{{\prime}{\prime}}$, E $127^{\circ}44^{\prime}43.3^{{\prime}{\prime}}$, elevation 7~10m) and east-facing edge of Hamyangsangrim (Quercus serrata-Carpinus tschonoskii community, tree age: 102~125yr/58~123yr, tree height: tree layer $18.6{\pm}2.3m/subtree$ layer $5.9{\pm}3.2m/shrub$ layer $0.5{\pm}0.5m$, herbaceous layer coverage ratio 60%, canopy closure: 96%, N $35^{\circ}31^{\prime}28.1^{{\prime}{\prime}}$, E $127^{\circ}43^{\prime}09.8^{{\prime}{\prime}}$, elevation 170~180m) in rural villages of Hadong and Hamyang, Korea. The minus result value of depth means woodland's outside. The depth of edge influence(DEI) on the maximum air temperature, minimum relative humidity and wind speed at maximum air temperature time during the daytime(10:00~17:00) were detected to be $12.7{\pm}4.9$, $15.8{\pm}9.8$ and $23.8{\pm}26.2m$, respectively, in the mature evergreen conifer woodland of Hadongsongrim. These were detected to be $3.7{\pm}2.2$, $4.9{\pm}4.4$ and $2.6{\pm}7.8m$, respectively, in the deciduous broadleaf woodland of Hamyansangrim. The DEI on the maximum 10 minutes average MRT, UTCI from the three-dimensional environment absorbed by the human-biometeorological reference person during the daytime(10:00~17:00) were detected to be $7.1{\pm}1.7$ and $4.3{\pm}4.6m$, respectively, in the relatively sparse woodland of Hadongsongrim. These were detected to be $5.8{\pm}4.9$ and $3.5{\pm}4.1m$, respectively, in the dense and closed woodland of Hadongsongrim. Edge effects on the thermal environments of air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, MRT and UTCI in the sparse woodland of Hadongsongrim were less pronounced than those recorded in densed and closed woodland of Hamyansangrim. The gradient variation was less steep for maximum 10 minutes average UTCI with at least $4.3{\pm}4.6m$(Hadongsongrim) and $3.5{\pm}4.1m$(Hamyansangrim) being required to stabilize the UTCI at mature woodlands. Therefore it is suggested that the woodlands buffer widths based on the UTCI values should be 3.5~7.6 m(Hamyansangrim) and 4.3~8.9(Hadongsongrim) m on each side of mature woodlands for users' thermal comfort environments. The woodland edge structure should be multi-layered canopies and closed edge for the buffer effect of woodland edge on woodland users' thermal comfort.

Typhoon Simulation with a Parameterized Sea Surface Cooling (모수화된 해면 냉각을 활용한 태풍 모의 실험)

  • Lee, Duho;Kwon, H. Joe;Won, Seong-Hee;Park, Seon Ki
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.97-110
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    • 2006
  • This study investigates the response of a typhoon model to the change of the sea surface temperature (SST) throughout the model integration. The SST change is parameterized as a formulae of which the magnitude is given as a function of not only the intensity and the size but the moving speed of tropical cyclone. The formulae is constructed by referring to many previous observational and numerical studies on the SST cooling with the passage of tropical cyclones. Since the parameterized cooling formulae is based on the mathematical expression, the resemblance between the prescribed SST cooling and the observed one during the period of the numerical experiment is not complete nor satisfactory. The agreements between the prescribed and the observed SST even over the swath of the typhoon passage differ from case to case. Numerical experiments are undertaken with and without prescribing the SST cooling. The results with the SST cooling do not show clear evidence in improving the track prediction compared to those of the without-experiments. SST cooling in the model shows its swath along the incomplete simulated track so that the magnitude and the distribution of the sea surface cooling does not resemble completely with the observed one. However, we have observed a little improvement in the intensity prediction in terms of the central pressure of the tropical cyclone in some cases. In case where the model without the SST treatment is not able to yield a correct prediction of the filling of the tropical cyclone especially in the decaying stage, the pulling effect given by the SST cooling alleviates the over-deepening of the model so that the central pressure approaches toward the observed value. However, the opposite case when the SST treatment makes the prediction worse may also be possible. In general when the sea surface temperature is reduced, the amount of the sensible and the latent heat from the ocean surface become also reduced, which results in the weakening of the storms comparing to the constant SST case. It turns out to be the case also in our experiments. The weakening is realized in the central pressure, maximum wind, horizontal temperature gradient, etc.

A study on frost prediction model using machine learning (머신러닝을 사용한 서리 예측 연구)

  • Kim, Hyojeoung;Kim, Sahm
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.543-552
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    • 2022
  • When frost occurs, crops are directly damaged. When crops come into contact with low temperatures, tissues freeze, which hardens and destroys the cell membranes or chloroplasts, or dry cells to death. In July 2020, a sudden sub-zero weather and frost hit the Minas Gerais state of Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer, damaging about 30% of local coffee trees. As a result, coffee prices have risen significantly due to the damage, and farmers with severe damage can produce coffee only after three years for crops to recover, which is expected to cause long-term damage. In this paper, we tried to predict frost using frost generation data and weather observation data provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration to prevent severe frost. A model was constructed by reflecting weather factors such as wind speed, temperature, humidity, precipitation, and cloudiness. Using XGB(eXtreme Gradient Boosting), SVM(Support Vector Machine), Random Forest, and MLP(Multi Layer perceptron) models, various hyper parameters were applied as training data to select the best model for each model. Finally, the results were evaluated as accuracy(acc) and CSI(Critical Success Index) in test data. XGB was the best model compared to other models with 90.4% ac and 64.4% CSI, followed by SVM with 89.7% ac and 61.2% CSI. Random Forest and MLP showed similar performance with about 89% ac and about 60% CSI.

Spatial Patterns and Temporal Variability of the Haines Index related to the Wildland Fire Growth Potential over the Korean Peninsula (한반도 산불 확장 잠재도와 관련된 Haines Index의 시.공간적 특징)

  • Choi Cwang-Yong;Kim Jun-Su;Won Myoung-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.41 no.2 s.113
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    • pp.168-187
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    • 2006
  • Windy meteorological conditions and dried fire fuels due to higher atmospheric instability and dryness in the lower troposphere can exacerbate fire controls and result in more losses of forest resources and residential properties due to enhanced large wildland fires. Long-term (1979-2005) climatology of the Haines Index reconstructed in this study reveals that spatial patterns and intra-annual variability of the atmospheric instability and dryness in the lower troposphere affect the frequency of wildland fire incidences over the Korean Peninsula. Exponential regression models verify that daily high Haines Index and its monthly frequency has statistically significant correlations with the frequency of the wildland fire occurrences during the fire season (December-April) in South Korea. According to the climatic maps of the Haines Index created by the Geographic Information System (GIS) using the Digital Elevation Model (DEM), the lowlands below 500m from the mean sea level in the northwestern regions of the Korean Peninsula demonstrates the high frequency of the Haines Index equal to or greater than five in April and May. The annual frequency of the high Haines Index represents an increasing trend across the Korean Peninsula since the mid-1990s, particularly in Gyeongsangbuk-do and along the eastern coastal areas. The composite of synoptic weather maps at 500hPa for extreme events, in which the high Haines Index lasted for several days consecutively, illustrates that the cold low pressure system developed around the Sea of Okhotsk in the extreme event period enhances the pressure gradient and westerly wind speed over the Korean Peninsula. These results demonstrate the need for further consideration of the spatial-temporal characteristics of vertical atmospheric components, such as atmospheric instability and dryness, in the current Korean fire prediction system.