• Atmosphere
• /
• v.21 no.2
• /
• pp.197-208
• /
• 2011

The objective of this study is to describe the short-range forecast system of the Korea Air Force (KAF) and to verificate its performace in 2009 summer. The KAF weather prediction model system, based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (i.e., the KAF-WRF), is configured with a parent domain overs East Asia and two nested domains with the finest horizontal grid size of 2 km. Each domain covers the Korean peninsula and South Korea, respectively. The model is integrated for 84 hour 4 times a day with the initial and boundary conditions from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) data. A quantitative verification system is constructed for the East Asia and Korean peninsula domains. Verification variables for the East Asia domain are 500 hPa temperature, wind and geopotential height fields, and the skill score is calculated using the difference between the analysis data from the NCEP GFS model and the forecast data of the KAF-WRF model results. Accuracy of precipitation for the Korean penisula domain is examined using the contingency table that is made of the KAF-WRF model results and the KMA (Korea Meteorological Administraion) AWS (Automatic Weather Station) data. Using the verification system, the operational model and parallel model with updated version of the WRF model and improved physics process are quantitatively evaluated for the 2009 summer. Over the East Aisa region, the parallel experimental model shows the better performance than the operation model. Errors of the experimental model in 500 hPa geopotential height near the Tibetan plateau are smaller than errors in the operational model. Over the Korean peninsula, verification of precipitation prediction skills shows that the performance of the operational model is better than that of the experimental one in simulating light precipitation. However, performance of experimental one is generally better than that of operational one, in prediction.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
• /
• v.42 no.5
• /
• pp.514-523
• /
• 2021

Using the precipitation data observed at the Gochang Standard Weather Observatory (GSWO) during the winter seasons from 2014 to 2016, we analyzed the precipitation characteristics of the winter observation environment. For this study, we used four different types of precipitation gauges, i.e., No Shield (NS), Single Alter (SA), Double Fence Intercomparison Reference (DFIR), and Pit Gauge (PG). We analyzed the data from each to find differences in the accumulated precipitation, characteristics of the precipitation type, and the catch efficiency according to the wind speed based on the DFIR. We then classified these into three precipitation types, i.e., rain, mixed precipitation, and snow, according to temperature data from Gochang's Automated Synoptic Observing System (ASOS). We considered the DFIR to be the standard precipitation gauge for our analysis and the cumulative winter precipitation recorded by each other gauge compared to the DFIR data in the following order (from the most to least similar): SA, NS, and PG. As such, we find that the SA gauge is the most accurate when compared to the standard precipitation gauge used (DFIR), and the PG system is inappropriate for winter observations.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
• /
• v.63 no.6
• /
• pp.77-88
• /
• 2021

Duck industry had a rapid growth in recent years. Nevertheless, researches to improve duck house environment are still not sufficient enough. Moisture generation of duck house litter is an important factor because it may cause severe illness and low productivity. However, the measuring process is difficult because it could be disturbed with animal excrements and other factors. Therefore, it has to be calculated according to the environmental data around the duck house litter. To cut through all these procedures, we built several machine learning regression model forecasting moisture generation of litter by measured environment data (air temperature, relative humidity, wind velocity and water contents). 5 models (Multi Linear Regression, k-Nearest Neighbors, Support Vector Regression, Random Forest and Deep Neural Network). have been selected for regression. By using R-Square, RMSE and MAE as evaluation metrics, the best accurate model was estimated according to the variables for each machine learning model. In addition, to address the small amount of data acquired through lab experiments, bootstrapping method, a technique utilized in statistics, was used. As a result, the most accurate model selected was Random Forest, with parameters of n-estimator 200 by bootstrapping the original data nine times.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
• /
• v.40 no.3
• /
• pp.259-271
• /
• 2019

A statistical downscaling method was adopted in order to establish the high-resolution wave prediction system in the East Sea coastal area. This system used forecast data from the Global Wave Watch (GWW) model, and the East Sea and Busan Coastal Wave Watch (CWW) model operated by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). We used the CWW forecast data until three days and the GWW forecast data from three to seven days to implement the statistical downscaling method (inverse distance weight interpolation and conditional merge). The two-dimensional and station wave heights as well as sea surface wind speed from the high-resolution coastal prediction system were verified with statistical analysis, using an initial analysis field and oceanic observation with buoys carried out by the KMA and the Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Agency (KHOA). Similar to the predictive performance of the GWW and the CWW data, the system has a high predictive performance at the initial stages that decreased gradually with forecast time. As a result, during the entire prediction period, the correlation coefficient and root mean square error of the predicted wave heights improved from 0.46 and 0.34 m to 0.6 and 0.28 m before and after applying the statistical downscaling method.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.35 no.4
• /
• pp.543-552
• /
• 2022

When frost occurs, crops are directly damaged. When crops come into contact with low temperatures, tissues freeze, which hardens and destroys the cell membranes or chloroplasts, or dry cells to death. In July 2020, a sudden sub-zero weather and frost hit the Minas Gerais state of Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer, damaging about 30% of local coffee trees. As a result, coffee prices have risen significantly due to the damage, and farmers with severe damage can produce coffee only after three years for crops to recover, which is expected to cause long-term damage. In this paper, we tried to predict frost using frost generation data and weather observation data provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration to prevent severe frost. A model was constructed by reflecting weather factors such as wind speed, temperature, humidity, precipitation, and cloudiness. Using XGB(eXtreme Gradient Boosting), SVM(Support Vector Machine), Random Forest, and MLP(Multi Layer perceptron) models, various hyper parameters were applied as training data to select the best model for each model. Finally, the results were evaluated as accuracy(acc) and CSI(Critical Success Index) in test data. XGB was the best model compared to other models with 90.4% ac and 64.4% CSI, followed by SVM with 89.7% ac and 61.2% CSI. Random Forest and MLP showed similar performance with about 89% ac and about 60% CSI.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.55 no.12
• /
• pp.1077-1089
• /
• 2022

With the construction of Seoul National University (SNU), the Mt. Gwanak watershed has undergone some urbanization. As with other campus catchments, data related to the water cycle is extremely limited. Therefore, this study began by collecting hydrological and meteorological data using Atmos-41, a complex meteorological observation instrument. The observation results of Atmos-41 were validated by analyzing the statistical characteristics and confidence intervals based on the monthly variability of data from the Korea Meteorological Administration. Results of the previous research were used to validate the simulated surface runoff and infiltration using the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). The potential evapotranspiration (PET) simulated by the SWMM was rectified by comparing it to the Atmos-41 observation data. Multiple regression analysis was employed to adjust for the fluctuations in precipitation, relative humidity, and wind speed because the calculated SWMM PET tends to be underestimated during periods of low temperatures. R² increased from 0.54 to 0.80 when compared to the Atmos-41 PET. The rate of change in the water cycle as a consequence of the SNU's construction resulted in a 15.7% increase in surface runoff, a 14.2% decrease in infiltration rate, and a 1.6% decrease in evaporation.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
• /
• v.18 no.4
• /
• pp.199-207
• /
• 2016

This study was conducted to develop a forest fire occurrence model using meteorological characteristics for practical forecasting of forest fire danger rate by reflecting the climate change for the time period of 2000yrs. Forest fire in South Korea is highly influenced by humidity, wind speed, temperature, and precipitation. To effectively forecast forest fire occurrence, we developed a forest fire danger rating model using weather factors associated with forest fire in 2000yrs. Forest fire occurrence patterns were investigated statistically to develop a forest fire danger rating index using times series weather data sets collected from 76 meteorological observation centers. The data sets were used for 11 years from 2000 to 2010. Development of the national forest fire occurrence probability model used a logistic regression analysis with forest fire occurrence data and meteorological variables. Nine probability models for individual nine provinces including Jeju Island have been developed. The results of the statistical analysis show that the logistic models (p<0.05) strongly depends on the effective and relative humidity, temperature, wind speed, and rainfall. The results of verification showed that the probability of randomly selected fires ranges from 0.687 to 0.981, which represent a relatively high accuracy of the developed model. These findings may be beneficial to the policy makers in South Korea for the prevention of forest fires.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
• /
• v.7 no.1
• /
• pp.1-12
• /
• 2004

The summer distribution of $Cha-{alpha}$ and physical processes for simulating outbreak region of red tide were estimated by the Eco-Hydrodynamic model in Chinhae Bay. As a result of simulation of surface residual currents, the southward flow come in contact with the northward flow at the inlet and western part of bay in case of windlessness and below wind velocity 2 m/sec. As wind velocity increases, the velocity and direction of currents were fairly shifted. The predicted concentration of $Cha-{alpha}$ exceeded 20 mg/㎥ in Masan and Haengam Bays, and most regions were over 10 mg/㎥, which meant the possibility of red tide outbreak. From the results of the contributed physical processes to $Cha-{alpha}$, accumulation sites were distributed at the northern part of Kadok channel, around the Chilcheon island, the western part of Kajo island and some area of Chindong Bay. On the other hand, inner parts of the study area such as Masan Bay were estimated as the sites of strong algal activities. Masan and Haengam Bay are considered as the initial outbreak region of red tide by the modeling and observed data, and then red tide expanded to other areas such as physical accumulation region and western inner bay, as depending on environmental variation. The increase of wind velocity led to decrease of $Cha-{alpha}$ and enlargement of accumulation region. The variation of intensity of radiation and sunshine duration caused to rapidly fluctuation of $Cha-{alpha}$: however, it was not largely affected by the variation of pollutant loads from the land only.

• Journal of Bio-Environment Control
• /
• v.26 no.3
• /
• pp.181-187
• /
• 2017

The purpose of this study was to provide basic data for development of environmental design technology for greenhouses constructed in reclaimed lands. The climatic conditions around seven major reclaimed land areas with a plan to install advanced horticultural complexes in Korea were analyzed. The characteristics of natural ventilation and temperature rise through the thermal environment measurement of the greenhouse in Saemangeum were analyzed. The part to be applied to the environmental design of the greenhouses in reclaimed lands were reviewed. Results of comparing the ventilation rate of the greenhouse according to the presence or absence of plants showed the greenhouse with plants had the lower ventilation rate, but the smaller rise of indoor temperature due to the evapotranspiration of plants. In the greenhouse with plants, the number of air changes was in the range of 0.3 to 0.9 volumes/min and the average was 0.7 volumes/min. The rise of indoor temperature relative to outdoor temperature was in the range of 1 to $5^{\circ}C$ and the average $2.5^{\circ}C$. The natural ventilation performance of the experimental greenhouse constructed in the reclaimed land almost satisfied the recommended ventilation rate in summer and the rise of indoor temperature relative to outdoor temperature did not deviate considerably from the cultivation environment of plants. Therefore, it was determined that the greenhouse cultivation in Saemangeum reclaimed land is possible with only natural ventilation systems without cooling facilities. As the reclaimed land is located in the seaside, the wind is stronger than the inland area, and the fog is frequent. This strong wind speed increases the ventilation rate of greenhouses, which is considered to be a factor for reducing the cooling load. In addition, since the fog duration is remarkably longer than that of inland area, the seasonal cooling load is expected to decrease, which is considered to be advantageous in terms of the operation cost of cooling facilities.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
• /
• v.40 no.6
• /
• pp.173-179
• /
• 2012

The experiments, which analyze the injury symptoms and diagnose growth conditions utilizing IRVT and analyzing each parts of H. helix L., had been held under a low temperature. Greenhouse and outdoor growing Genus hedera had been prepared and compared with each Genus hedera's peak and bottom leaves' surface temperature under the experimental categories $-6^{\circ}C$ and $-12^{\circ}C$. As results, analyzing the surface thermal property of peak part leaves' of outdoor growing Genus hedera, at experimental categories $-6^{\circ}C$, $-12^{\circ}C$ were ranged from $-2^{\circ}C{\sim}-7^{\circ}C$ and $-2^{\circ}C{\sim}-15^{\circ}C$. On the other hand, the surface thermal property of bottom part leaves at experimental categories $-6^{\circ}C$, $-12^{\circ}C$ were ranged $-2^{\circ}C{\sim}-11^{\circ}C$ and $-1^{\circ}C{\sim}-12^{\circ}C$. It appears that the thermal properties of leaves' surface on $-6^{\circ}C$ peaks and $-12^{\circ}C$ bottoms were more broadband than bottoms and peaks. It means that the peaks were more sensitive than bottoms, as like $-2^{\circ}C{\sim}-15^{\circ}C$, $-1{\sim}-12^{\circ}C$. Moreover, as similar results had seen to leaves surface temperature added to cold wind conditions. How the cold wind damaged the outdoor growing Genus hedera, analyzed the surface thermal property by IRVT data under $0^{\circ}C$, $-2^{\circ}C$, $-4^{\circ}C$ condition, it resulted to $-6.2^{\circ}C$, $-6.8^{\circ}C$, $-7.5^{\circ}C$. It appeared more $3.5{\sim}6.2^{\circ}C$ low temperature than experimental setting point. In addition, each parts thurmal property of peaks and bottoms was not similar, it referred to each parts' sensitivities of low temperature were different on the peak and bottom leaves surface temperature.